🛢 Oil's up again

Oil prices spiked after unexpected violence erupted in Israel | China's "winning" week was more bronze than gold | [Finimize](   TOGETHER WITH   Hi {NAME}, here's what you need to know for October 10th in 3:14 minutes.   🤓 Women can run Wall Street. Join Liz Ann Sonders, Michelle Meyers, and Karen Ward at the [Modern Investor Summit](, and discover market predictions and investing wisdom from the top table of finance. [Get your free Summit ticket]( Today's big stories - Oil prices surged due to concerns about renewed turmoil in the Middle East - Here’s how to prepare your portfolio for a recession, in case that "soft landing" doesn’t happen – [Read Now]( - Travel and spending over China’s Golden Week holiday came in lower than expected, indicating that the economy’s still far off its long-awaited recovery Oil’s Up Again [Oil’s Up Again] What’s going on here? The price of oil jumped on fears of renewed instability in the Middle East. What does this mean? Oil prices had started to flatten out before the weekend, as investors expected rising interest rates to slow global economic growth and curb demand. That marked the end of a slow climb they’d started in July. But on Saturday, unexpected violence broke out in Israel. Now that retaliations have started in Gaza, too, fears are mounting about the region’s future – and that’s playing out in oil prices. After all, the Middle East accounts for nearly one-third of the world’s oil supply. And even if the conflict doesn’t immediately impact supply, any escalation that involves major oil-producing nations or sparks output cuts and sanctions would cause disruption. So, concerned about the range of situations that could follow, investors have already sent oil prices upward. Why should I care? For markets: The world will be impacted. Neither Israel or Gaza are major oil producers, so there’s no direct threat to oil pipelines or supply chains right now. Plus, geopolitical events rarely interfere with oil prices for long. But with countries around the world already facing low oil inventories, the mere idea of potential disruptions could prevent prices from falling. And for major economies that are only just making headway against inflation, a rise in prices could partially reverse months of progress. The bigger picture: Prepare your portfolio. Geopolitical risk was already high around the world: Ukraine is still at war, there have been seven coup attempts across Africa in the last few years, and tensions are still high between the US and China. Investors need to brace for that volatility to impact their emotions, and therefore decision-making, and their portfolios: you’ll want to be very well diversified and make sure you’re not carrying more risk than you can handle. You might also like: [How to invest in the oil and gas industry](. Copy to share story: [( 🙋 [Ask a question](mailto:questions@finimize.com?body=Ask us a question: Where are you writing from? Let us know and we'll mention it when we reply.&noapp=true&subject=Oil’s Up Again&utm_campaign=daily-global-10-10-2023&utm_source=email) Analyst Take Brace, Brace, Brace: Why A Hard Landing Is Still Very Likely [Brace, Brace, Brace: Why A Hard Landing Is Still Very Likely]( [Photo of Reda Farran, CFA] Reda Farran, CFA, Analyst It was [a summer]( of easing inflation, abundant job opportunities, and strong consumer spending. That [all-is-well trifecta]( helped boost investors’ hopes that the US economy might achieve something truly rare: [the so-called soft landing](. But history and the current state of things suggest that investors have probably become [overly complacent]( – just as they’ve done before every US recession in the past 40 years. And that’s today’s Insight: [why a hard landing is still the most likely scenario, and how you might brace your portfolio for the impact](. [Read or listen to the Insight here]( SPONSORED BY CHAIKIN ANALYTICS The AI stock this big name is eyeing up Marc Chaikin is a revered name in the finance world. He predicted the 2012 Priceline collapse, the 2020 crash, and the 2022 bear market before most others caught on. And right now, [Chaikin’s attention is locked on AI](. He’s expecting a massive turning point for the tech – [big enough to pull up underperformers and weigh down current frontrunners](. The last time Chaikin clocked onto a tide change like this, he saw single stocks double in value over a single year. And this time, [he’s predicting the same for a specific tech stock](. If you want to find out his pick, you can [read his report for free right here](. [Find Out More]( DisclaimerThis ad is sent on behalf of Chaikin Analytics, 201 King Of Prussia Rd., Suite 650, Radnor, PA 19087. Privacy Policy - When you support our sponsors, you support us. Thanks for that. Bronze Week [Bronze Week] What’s going on here? China’s Golden Week holiday brought in [less]( money than expected, more proof that the economy’s still far from roaring back. What does this mean? China’s Golden Week holiday was anticipated to showcase the country’s long-awaited recovery, with revelers splashing enough cash to give the world’s second-biggest economy a reason to celebrate. Just over 800 million domestic trips were made over the eight-day vacation that ended last Friday, bringing in $103 billion in domestic tourism revenue. Thing is, that’s only a smidgen better than the pre-pandemic total in 2019, despite this year’s celebrations lasting for one extra day. And it landed below official projections too, which had set sights on nearly 900 million trips and $107 billion in revenue. That’s a sign China's economy as a whole is still far from fighting fit. Why should I care? The bigger picture: China’s Achilles’ heel. Golden Week is a crucial period for property developers, but Chinese home sales over the period were lower this year than last. That, at a time when the government’s pouring support into the struggling sector: it’s reduced the amount of money banks need to keep on hand, slashed interest rates, and eased the requirements for home purchases. And because the state of the property market heavily influences the population’s spending habits, China will need to harden up the sector somehow. Otherwise, consumer spending will never get back to its pre-pandemic ways, depriving the economy of a critical growth engine. Zooming out: Come fly with us. China’s domestic travel might’ve trickled in below expectations, but it’s holding up better than international travel to and from the country. And to rub salt in the wound, the rest of the world’s proposing a toast. After four years of out-of-steam numbers, global airline capacity – that’s the number of seats available multiplied by the distance flown – is set to land above 2019’s levels this week, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium. That’s a major milestone in the $1 trillion-plus travel sector’s pandemic recovery. You might also like: [How to invest in the airline industry.]( Copy to share story: [( 🙋 [Ask a question](mailto:questions@finimize.com?body=Ask us a question: Where are you writing from? Let us know and we'll mention it when we reply.&noapp=true&subject=Bronze Week&utm_campaign=daily-global-10-10-2023&utm_source=email) 🤝 Partner with us Finimize is much more than just this newsletter: we’re a full-blown [one-stop shop]( for engaging with [modern investors](. So whether you’re a fintech, founder, or just a fed-up exec, rest assured – we’ve got [the solutions]( you need. [Book A Demo]( 💬 Quote of the day "Love is an act of endless forgiveness, a tender look which becomes a habit." – Peter Ustinov (a British actor, filmmaker, and writer) [Tweet this]( SPONSORED BY CHAIKIN ANALYTICS Three tech stocks that Chaikin believes are a better bet than Nvidia If you’ve been following the [AI trend](, you’ll know all about Nvidia already. But what you may not know is that Marc Chaikin – known in the finance industry for predicting major trends – says there are [better AI stocks to own than the current frontrunner](. Chaikin’s [stock indicator]( helped Wall Street find [Tesla, Moderna, Riot Blockchain, and Nvidia]( before, and now it’s lighting up for three tech stocks. If you want to discover it, you can [read Chaikin’s report – Three Stocks to Watch During the AI Frenzy – for free](. [Discover More]( DisclaimerThis ad is sent on behalf of Chaikin Analytics, 201 King Of Prussia Rd., Suite 650, Radnor, PA 19087. Privacy Policy - When you support our sponsors, you support us. Thanks for that. 🎯 On Our Radar 1. Global warming’s paradox. Air pollution can slow global warming, but it’ll [cost us big time](. 2. Wine isn't just one of the world’s favorite tipples. Here's [how to get started investing in wine.](* 3. Less is more. Here’s how to build [your perfect capsule wardrobe](. 4. Crypto projects thrive on network effects. Here's [what to look at in a crypto project]( to see how much it’s worth.* 5. Hello, Kitty. This [Symphony Orchestra]( would be quite the trip. When you support our sponsors, you support us. Thanks for that. 🌍 Finimize Live 🥳 Coming Up In The Next Week... All events in UK time. 💰 [Money Matters: Her Wealth Roadmap](: 5pm, October 25th 📈 [Accessible Strategies For Effective Trading](: 5pm, October 26th 🧰 [Mastering Tools for The Modern Trader](: 5pm, November 2nd 🎉 [Modern Investor Summit 2023](: 12pm, December 5th and 6th ❤️ Share with a friend Thanks for reading {NAME}. 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