📊 An earnings hurdle

More S&P 500 firms have fallen short, oil hits a low, and taking a breakup viral | [Finimize]( [TOGETHER WITH](#) Hi {NAME}, here's what you need to know for October 29th in 3:15 minutes. - Companies in the S&P 500 haven’t had much luck, with more of them falling short of analyst estimates - Goldman delivers a warning: you don’t have to go home, but the US stocks party is over – [Read Now]( - Oil prices slumped on Monday after an anticipated attack on Iran spared the country’s energy infrastructure 🤨 Elections can really make your head spin. So join us for a [US Election Special: What Investors Need To Know]( on Tuesday for the insights that can help keep you steady.  [Grab your free ticket]( Missing The Bar [Missing The Bar] What’s going on here? Companies in the S&P 500 have been beating earnings estimates at the lowest rate in nearly two years. What does this mean? We’re deep into earnings season, with companies raising the curtain on their third-quarter updates, one after another. And this time around, the situation is pretty crucial: with US stock valuations riding high, investors want to see results that are strong enough to keep the market rally going. See, the S&P 500 has been on a tear, posting gains for six straight months. Unfortunately, though, company earnings haven’t been living up to expectations of late. So far, roughly a third of the firms in the big index have reported their results, with about 75% of them posting profits that beat analysts’ forecasts. And that might sound good, but it’s actually the weakest showing since the fourth quarter of 2022. Why should I care? The bigger picture: Struggling to pull weight. Investors will get a much better picture of how Corporate America is faring this week, with firms accounting for nearly 42% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization dishing out results. That list includes tech giants like Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple. And analysts have been crystal-ball gazing, predicting that these five companies – along with Nvidia and Tesla – saw their earnings grow by a burly 18% in the third quarter, compared to the same period last year. Take out those “Magnificent Seven” firms though, and the rest of the index is expected to report zero profit growth. Zooming in: Swinging for the fences. AI will be the big focus for investors glued to the earnings reports this week. That’s because, in the third quarter, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta are projected to have spent a mighty $56 billion on costly infrastructure like data centers, up 52% from the same period a year ago. And with investors already losing sleep about how much these tech giants are pouring into AI – compared to what they’re actually getting out of it – those big numbers won’t be much of a tonic. You might also like: [Big Tech’s big AI spending could have a big downside](. Copy to share story: [( 🙋 [Ask a question](mailto:questions@finimize.com?body=Ask us a question: Where are you writing from? Let us know and we'll mention it when we reply.&noapp=true&subject=Missing The Bar&utm_campaign=daily-global-29-10-2024&utm_source=email) TODAY'S INSIGHT Fun While It Lasted: Goldman Says The S&P 500’s Historic Run Is Over Stéphane Renevier, CFA [Fun While It Lasted: Goldman Says The S&P 500’s Historic Run Is Over]( If you’ve been pulling in comfortable 13% returns year after year, just by investing in a straight S&P 500 ETF, [Goldman Sachs]( has a warning for you: that gravy train is about to get a lot slower. In a new report, the investment bank says it sees the big US stock index returning [just 3%]( annually over the next decade. And I largely agree – in fact, I’ve been [banging this drum]( for a while. Goldman’s thinking aligns with mine on some [key points]( – high stock valuations that leave no room for error and profit margins that the forces of economic gravity will soon pull down, for example. But Goldman is also raising a [new red flag]( that I think is worth paying attention to: today’s record market concentration. That’s today’s Insight: [the end to the US stocks party and what you might do next](. [Read or listen to the Insight here]( Meet your guide to the election year The US election could be a potential banana peel when it comes to investing. The potential for changes in policy, fresh regulatory crackdowns, and a whole new cast of characters could all [throw the markets into a tizzy](. That’s why our expert analysts have [worked with IG to build a guide]( on how to invest during the election season. It covers the impact of elections on markets, strategies for investing during an election year, and lots of tax considerations – [all in one handy place](. So if you’re looking for a way to keep your portfolio surefooted, even with all that slippery uncertainty, [check out our free guide](. [Read The Guide]( Oil Slips [Oil Slips] What’s going on here? The price of oil dipped 6% on Monday, the biggest single-day drop for the international benchmark Brent crude in over two years. What does this mean? The oil market has been on edge for the past year, with tensions generally running higher across the oil-producing Middle East. And investors’ jitters climbed even more at the start of the month when Israel vowed attacks against Iran. But the widely anticipated strike, which happened over the weekend, spared Iran’s energy infrastructure, easing serious concerns about disruption of oil production in the country – which accounts for about 3% of the world’s crude. Why should I care? The bigger picture: Global impact. Tensions haven’t let up across the region, but traders are shifting their focus away from those geopolitical risks to the potential of a big oil surplus in 2025. See, OPEC+ – the group of the world’s biggest oil-producing countries – has been voluntarily reducing its output since 2022, but it plans to gradually ramp up its output again starting in December. And we’re not talking small beans here, but a whopping six million barrels a day – roughly 6% of global demand. Mind you, the ongoing cuts haven’t exactly had the impact you might expect because producers outside the group – especially the US and Canada – have been more than happy to make up the difference. So when you combine increasing supply from North America and OPEC+ with weak demand from a sluggish economy, it’s not hard to understand why the market is looking steeped in the slippery stuff for next year – and potentially beyond. No wonder then that the International Energy Agency began [warning]( back in June that the world faces a massive oil glut amounting to millions of barrels a day by the end of the decade. You might also like: [How to invest in oil when its price is falling](. Copy to share story: [( 🙋 [Ask a question](mailto:questions@finimize.com?body=Ask us a question: Where are you writing from? Let us know and we'll mention it when we reply.&noapp=true&subject=Oil Slips&utm_campaign=daily-global-29-10-2024&utm_source=email) QUOTE OF THE DAY "Two roads diverged in a wood and I – I took the one less traveled by, and that has made all the difference." – Robert Frost (an American poet) [Tweet this]( * SPONSORED BY ENKY Furniture that works harder – for investors Finding furniture for your business can be as tricky as finding a good investment for your portfolio. But a Belgium-based startup wants to help you do both. Enky’s [furniture-as-a-service model]( offers eco-friendly pieces at a monthly fee for workplaces, hospitality spaces, and real estate outfits. Customers can [subscribe to the furniture]( and save money from the start, or buy it outright with the option of selling it back within ten years. It means nothing ends up in a landfill. Enky even has its own financing platform – [Enky Invest]( – that it uses to buy all its gorgeous furnishings. And with a yearly ROI of 6% to 8.5%, it's raised over $1 million in the past three months. Now, as it looks to expand across borders – it’s already set up shop in the UK – Enky is offering a unique opportunity to join its crowdfunding campaign. So put your feet on your desk like a boss, and [check out Enky’s numbers](. It might be the acquisition you’ve been looking for. [Discover More]( When you support our sponsors, you support us. Thanks for that. If you want your brand featured here, [get in touch.]( 🎯 On Our Radar 1. The heartbreak guide. Maybe it’s time to [take your break-up viral](. 2. Don’t get bogged down by the circus. Check out IG’s [free guide to investing during the political season](.* 3. There’s life out there. Aliens might really [live in the stars](. 4. A golden oldie. [How to invest in one of the world's oldest investments with GoldCore](.* 5. Do fright night right. Here are [10 revolutionary horror films](. When you support our sponsors, you support us. Thanks for that. 🌍 Finimize Live 🤩 Grab your tickets... All events in UK time.🇺🇸 [Pre-Election Special: What Investors Need To Know](: 5pm, Tuesday 🇺🇸 [Post-Election Special: The Landscape, Regardless Of Who Wins:]( 5pm, November 7th 🏅 [How To Tap Into Your Gold Opportunity](: 5pm, November 14th 💰 [Spread Betting vs CFDs: How To Trade Tax-Free](: 5pm, November 19th 🚀 [2024 Modern Investor Summit](: 2pm, December 3rd [Get your free ticket for the Modern Investor Summit]( Thanks for reading {NAME}. 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