🇨🇳 China needs new customers

A worry for China's economy, reassuring US datapoints, and some friendly spiders | [Finimize](   TOGETHER WITH     Hi {NAME}, here's what you need to know for August 9th in 3:12 minutes.   👀 They say being a good listener is a virtue. But now, it's our time to lend an ear: fill in [this 20-second survey](, and tell us what you want from us. [Fill in the quick survey]( Today's big stories - China made less money from exports than expected last month, and potential tariff hikes from the US could add salt to the wound - Five things to know about Japan if you’re thinking of buying the dip – [Read Now]( - US weekly jobless claims came in better than feared, reassuring investors about the state of the economy Save ‘Til You Drop [Save ‘Til You Drop] What’s going on here? China's own shoppers still aren’t swiping the plastic, and according to the latest [export]( figures, neither were the country’s international buyers. What does this mean? China’s exports were only 7% higher this July than last, missing economists’ 9.5% forecasts. Part of the blame lies with squeezed margins due to falling export prices, which have been on the slide since the middle of last year. And the outlook’s far from reassuring: former US president Trump is threatening to stamp tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese exports if he wins the election, when [experts]( estimate that even a 10% increase could slow the inflation-adjusted economy’s growth down by up to 0.4 percentage points next year. That’s precisely the sort of trouble that China’s struggling economy – which grew at its slowest pace in five quarters from April to June – could do without. Why should I care? Zooming out: Rock, meet hard place. Chinese exporters need to carve out some time to worry about the yuan, too. The currency has been strengthening against the dollar recently, a comeback from its slack performance earlier this year. That’s making the country’s products look more expensive internationally – and that could pose a problem for China’s many companies, from carmakers to ecommerce, that have recently pivoted toward global expansion to make up for limp demand at home. The bigger picture: Counting sheep won’t cut it. Mind you, stateside companies might also struggle to peacefully drift off at night. JPMorgan now says there’s a 35% chance that the US economy tips into a recession by the end of the year – up from 25% at the start of last month. And time won’t heal this wound: that probability reaches 45% for the second half of next year. Goldman Sachs has landed on a 25% probability of a recession in the next year, too – and in that case, the Federal Reserve could be forced to slash rates, stat. You might also like: [What Trump 2.0 would mean for the economy.]( Copy to share story: [( 🙋 [Ask a question](mailto:questions@finimize.com?body=Ask us a question: Where are you writing from? Let us know and we'll mention it when we reply.&noapp=true&subject=Save ‘Til You Drop&utm_campaign=daily-global-09-08-2024&utm_source=email) Analyst Take Land Of The Rising Yen (And Falling Stock Market) [Land Of The Rising Yen (And Falling Stock Market)]( By Russell Burns, Analyst Whatever you think about Japan’s stock market, the past week has proved one thing: it’s not for the [faint of heart](. When the turmoil hit the markets, share prices everywhere started to perspire. But none sweated quite like [Japan](. Now, I’ve been investing in the [Land Of The Rising Sun]( for a long time, and I know this move will have some folks rubbing their palms together and hunting for bargains. If you’re one of them, here are five [things]( to consider. That’s today’s Insight: [five things to know about Japan, if you’re thinking of buying the dip](. [Read or listen to the Insight here]( Take Warren Buffett, and give him an AI masterclass Warren Buffett made his fortune long before AI was doling out personalized strategies. So with cutting-edge tech and the legendary investor’s lessons at your disposal, there’s no reason you can’t get that vacation, retirement, or college fund going. Join us for [How To Invest Like A Modern Warren Buffett]( with Prospero.ai on August 14th, and find out how to use AI-driven analysis to [make smarter investment decisions](. You’ll discover tricks for optimizing your [risk-reward balance]( and expert-vetted [value investing strategies]( – you know, the type that the Oracle of Omaha has made uber-famous. [Grab your free ticket to get the lowdown on value investing, 21st-century style](. [Grab Your Free Ticket]( Cracking A Smile [Cracking A Smile] What’s going on here? US initial weekly jobless claims [came]( in lower than usual, easing recession fears and giving stock markets reasons to be cheerful. What does this mean US weekly jobless claims are usually considered a pretty mute datapoint. But times aren’t “usual” right now – with panic and the big “recession” buzzword on everyone’s minds. Remember, one catalyst behind the recent stock sell-off was last Friday’s US jobs report coming in worse than expected, with unemployment landing higher than hoped. But Thursday’s data might take the edge off a little: the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US fell to 233,000 last week – better than the expected 240,000. And because that makes it more likely that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may tame inflation without tanking the economy, stateside stocks were given a lift after the news. Why should I care? Zooming out: A bit of boot quaking. As the name suggests, the CNN Fear and Greed index indicates how greedy or fearful investors are feeling. And this week, the gauge hit the bright red “extreme fear” end. Much of that has been caused by the unwinding of the carry trade when a flock of investors rushed to sell stocks at the same time, sending markets down south – fast. But with JPMorgan saying that around 75% of these positions have been closed, the mass exodus may be close to running its course. The bigger picture: Coming in smooth. Not long ago, optimistic investors were eyeing up lower interest rates to support the economy and markets. But all it took was some disconcerting economic data for investors to abandon their stocks, concerned that the Fed had left it too late to cut interest rates. Although, today's batch offers some reassurance that the central bank has struck the balance, and could hold out on a trim until September as previously predicted. You might also like: [Markets skipped the stairs and took the elevator down this week. Here’s how it happened](. Copy to share story: [( 🙋 [Ask a question](mailto:questions@finimize.com?body=Ask us a question: Where are you writing from? Let us know and we'll mention it when we reply.&noapp=true&subject=Cracking A Smile&utm_campaign=daily-global-09-08-2024&utm_source=email) 💬 Quote of the day "It is during our darkest moments that we must focus to see the light." – Aristotle Onassis (an Argentine-Greek magnate) [Tweet this]( Take a seat on the Summit’s main stage Thousands of retail investors tuned into our [Modern Investor Summit]( sessions last year. Eager to discover the smartest tools and savviest tricks, they piled into fireside sessions, Q&A panels, and keynote speaker slots with the likes of Jamie Dimon. Now’s your chance to secure a spot at the next one. Our [Summit]( is slated for December this year, and we’re on the lookout for speakers with big ideas and serious know-how. [Take a look at last year’s recording of CFA Institute’s session]( to get a feel for it: the platform detailed sustainable investing techniques, as well as explaining its own climate finance courses. If you’re ready for your turn, [talk to the team to bag your spot before they fill up.]( [Drop Us A Line]( 😅 Don’t Play It Again, Sahm This week's stock sell-off was the result of a combination of factors, one of which was last Friday’s weaker-than-predicted [US labor market report](. If there’s one reason why the numbers were so worrying, it’s because the rise in the unemployment rate triggered the “[Sahm Rule](”. The indicator's eerily accurate at predicting recessions, and right now, [it's lighting up](. [Get The Lowdown]( 🎯 On Our Radar 1. Eight-legged friends. Turns out spiders hang out with [lots of other animal pals](. 2. You can't have DeFi without stablecoins. Here's [how they work and why they're so important](.* 3. Dominance and resilience. Here’s why [Simone Biles is the GOAT](. 4. To utopia, and beyond. A fresh investing style could [build a better future]( for you and the planet.* 5. Confessions of a bridesmaid. Weddings might just be [getting out of hand](. When you support our sponsors, you support us. Thanks for that. 🌍 Finimize Live 🤩 Grab your tickets... All events in UK time.💰 [How To Invest Like A Modern Warren Buffett:]( 5pm, August 14th 😎 [Make More Out Of Your Portfolio With US-listed Options:]( 5pm, August 15th 🔨 [Five Portfolio Hacks For Busy Investors:]( 5pm, September 12th 🚀 [2024 Modern Investor Summit](: 2pm, December 3rd ❤️ Share with a friend Thanks for reading {NAME}. If you liked today's brief, we'd love for you to share it with a friend. You stay classy, {NAME} 😉 We’d love to hear your thoughts. [Give feedback]( Want to advertise with us too? 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