ZiPS Midseason Movers and Shakers: Hitters

The FanGraphs Newsletter, June 28, 2024 [READ IN BROWSER]( June 28, 2024 One of the most frequent questions we receive about ZiPS is folks wondering how the long-term projections for X hitter or Y pitcher have changed compared to what they were preseason. Since we’re right at the midpoint of the season, this is a good time to review just how the first half of the 2024 season has shifted expectations for individual players. The methodology Dan Szymborski is using is simple: comparing the current 2025-2029 WAR projections versus the 2025-2029 WAR projections as predicted at the start of the season. He's only included good prospects and players who are currently relevant to the majors (or injured) so we don’t get a bunch of random Double-A hitters who are slightly more or less below replacement level than they used to be gumming things up. He'll tackle position players today, with pitchers to follow next week. Since Dan is such a cheerful and upbeat fellow, let’s start with the gainers. He also includied each player’s updated top three offensive comps, because comps are fun, even if the individual players listed don’t really mean a lot to the projection. At the very least, it contextualizes expectations in a non-WAR manner: [READ MORE]( [Josh Smith Is Cutting Through the Heart and Breaking Out]( The 26-year-old Rangers infielder has been one of the best hitters in the American League this year. | by Matt Martell [An East-to-West Slider Is Tanner Houck's Bread and Butter]( The Red Sox right-hander leads all pitchers in WAR, and a more horizontal slider is playing a key role. | by David Laurila [Baltimore Orioles Top 45 Prospects]( This is one of the best handful of farm systems in baseball, with the vast majority of the prospects who project to have everyday futures (or close to it) on the position player side, while the system's depth is in its pitching. | by Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice [Five Things I Liked (Or Didn't Like) This Week, June 28]( Shohei Ohtani missing bases, Juan Soto mixing up counts, and all the bad baserunning you can imagine. It's a "what were they thinking?" edition of Five Things. | by Ben Clemens [Top of the Order: The Astros Should Shoot for the Stars]( Houston’s winning streak has completely changed the team’s outlook this season. It’s time to think and trade big. | by Jon Becker 🎧 [Effectively Wild Episode 2183: .500 Days of Summer]( [DOWNLOAD THE FANGRAPHS APP]( [FanGraphs & Effectively Wild Merch Is Now Available at BreakingT!]( [ORDER HERE]( [Good vibes in SD? Vlad Jr. on the move? Here are 5 fascinations in MLB]( by Will Leitch, MLB [How 2024 Orioles compare to 2016 World Series-winning Cubs]( by David Schoenfield, ESPN ($) [Jared Jones and the Plight of the Max-Effort Starter]( by Mario Delgado Genzor, Baseball Prospectus ($) [How fast could a human being throw a fastball? 106 mph, 110 mph — even 125 mph?]( by Eno Sarris, The Athletic ($) [@fangraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [RSS]( [FORWARD]( [SUBSCRIBE]( Copyright © 2024 FanGraphs Inc, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to the FanGraphs Newsletter. Our mailing address is: FanGraphs Inc 3017 N Underwood StArlington, VA 22213 [Add us to your address book]( Want to change how you receive these emails? You can [update your preferences]( or [unsubscribe from this list](