The Fun Differential Rolls on in Seattle

The FanGraphs Newsletter, June 18, 2024 [READ IN BROWSER]( June 18, 2024 This has not been the year for the AL West. With the reigning World Series champion Rangers sitting below .500 amid a string of injuries, the Astros’ core succumbing to age, and the Angels and A’s sitting at rock bottom, one of baseball’s stronger divisions over the past few years has become its weakest. Just one team has a winning record: the Seattle Mariners. At 43-31, the Mariners hold an 8.5-game lead in the West, even as some of the underlying numbers indicate the team isn’t as good as its record suggests. Seattle has overperformed its Pythagorean record by four wins and its BaseRuns record by two, and its run differential is by far the worst among division leaders. But this kind of thing is [nothing new for this organization](. The Mariners are currently enjoying their fourth consecutive year of contention, falling short of a Wild Card spot in 2021 and ’23 and snapping their two-decade playoff drought in ’22. In each of these seasons, they’ve pulled out wins in close games like no other club, and manager Scott Servais has pointed to the poise and experience with which his team handles tight matchups. Famously, after a 2021 road trip where the Mariners went 6-2 despite being outscored by their opponents, [Servais introduced the term]( “fun differential” to evaluate the team rather than its relatively poor run differential. Three years later, with a new group of players, the fun differential is still elite. Naturally, in order to win a lot of one-run games, you need to play in a lot of one-run games. One of the best ways to do that is to play plenty of low-scoring affairs, when neither team scores enough runs to pull away from its opponent. And indeed, the Mariners rank in the bottom third of the majors in both runs scored and allowed. The first factor that puts them in so many tight games is the strength of their starting rotation, which has been among the best in baseball by both volume and efficiency. As a squad, they rank eighth in ERA- and FIP-, and second in innings per start; they’re one of just two teams to convert quality starts over half the time. While none of their starters are individually dominating the leaderboards, the depth they have is nearly unmatched. [LEARN MORE]( [A Change of Scenery Has Worked Well for Jack Flaherty]( After a rough season split between the Cardinals and Orioles, the 28-year-old righty has become one of the AL's top pitchers. | by Jay Jaffe [Triston Casas Talks Hitting Training]( The cerebral Red Sox slugger talks about his preparation routine, which is beginning to include Trajekt. | by David Laurila [Josh Rojas, Picking Machine]( Josh Rojas has found a defensive home, and now he looks like a bona fide plus defender. How did that happen so fast? | by Ben Clemens [Top of the Order: Yankees-Orioles Race Heats up as Deadline Looms]( The Orioles and Yankees are about to kick off a big series, but it’s not just the on-field competition that’ll decide the AL East. | by Jon Becker [FanGraphs Power Rankings: June 10–16]( The Mets and Nationals surge while the Padres fall in this week's FanGraphs Power Rankings. | by Jake Mailhot [The Astros Finally Release José Abreu]( The 37-year-old has had a fine career, but in 2024, it’s running on fumes. | by Dan Szymborski 🎧 [Effectively Wild Episode 2179: Missed Connections]( [DOWNLOAD THE FANGRAPHS APP]( [FanGraphs & Effectively Wild Merch Is Now Available at BreakingT!]( [ORDER HERE]( [MLB franchise shortstop draft: Witt, Henderson or Seager No. 1?]( via ESPN [Judge's 40-game stretch rates among all-time greats]( by Mike Petriello, MLB [The essence of Kyle Schwarber, the Phillies’ everyman slugger with an empathetic spirit]( by Matt Gelb, The Athletic ($) [Overcoming “Too Good for AAA but Struggling in the Bigs,”]( by Nate Schwartz, Pitcher List [@fangraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [RSS]( [FORWARD]( [SUBSCRIBE]( Copyright © 2024 FanGraphs Inc, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to the FanGraphs Newsletter. Our mailing address is: FanGraphs Inc 3017 N Underwood StArlington, VA 22213 [Add us to your address book]( Want to change how you receive these emails? You can [update your preferences]( or [unsubscribe from this list](