Dividend Investing Weekly: Calling Into Question Friday’s Hot Employment Number

You are receiving this email because you signed up to receive our free e-letter Dividend Investing Weekly, or you purchased a product or service from its publisher, Eagle Financial Publications. [Dividend Investing Weekly] [Cash Machine]( [Quick Income Trader]( [Breakout Profits Alert]( [Hi-Tech Trader]( Calling Into Question Friday’s Hot Employment Number by Bryan Perry Editor, [Cash Machine]( 02/05/2024 Sponsored Content [Here's Why 45 Could Be The Last Republican President]( Louis Navellier believes we've already seen our last Republican president. He predicts America could be changed forever. [Watch The Video]( The S&P and Nasdaq soared, and bond prices crashed upon last Friday’s release of the January employment data that blew past even the most bullish of estimates. The Labor Department reported the economy added a whopping 353,000 jobs with the three-month average for total nonfarm payrolls increased to 289,000 from 227,000. December nonfarm payrolls were revised to 333,000 from 216,000. November nonfarm payrolls were revised to 182,000 from 173,000. January average hourly earnings were up 0.6% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) versus 0.4% in December. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 4.5%, versus 4.3% for the 12 months ending in December. The lower trend in job growth bottomed out in October 2023 and has been reaccelerating for the past three months as implied by the upward revisions. There are some changes in adjustments that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has made to its data, which has critics of the BLS charging extreme data manipulation to generate such a strong report. Now, let’s look at the ADP National Employment Report, which is a measure of the monthly change in nonfarm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is historically a particularly good predictor of the government's nonfarm payroll report. Private payroll growth slowed to just 107,000 in January, well below expectations of 150,000 and off from the downwardly revised 158,000 in December. “Private payroll growth declined sharply in January, a possible sign that the U.S. labor market is heading for a slowdown this year,” ADP reported Wednesday. Only one sector -- information services (-9,000) -- reported a decline, but hiring was slow across virtually all sectors. Vocal critics argue the use of benchmark revisions, seasonal adjustments , and population controls are all keywords for what we can only describe as statistical magic. [Bryan Perry's 4th & Final “Millionaire Beta Test”]( Over each of the last three years, Bryan Perry's Quick Income Trader Beta Tests have generated 7 figures in trading gains, each time in under 10 months. To learn about Bryan's next (and last) program, [follow this link](. In the latest Zero Hedge economic commentary, it was pointed out “the latest divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 353,000 payrolls were added, the [Household survey]( found that the number of actually employed workers dropped again, this time by 31,000 (from 161,183 to 161,152).” The number of people employed has dropped in three of the past four months, including a drop of 683,000 people in December. The Challenger Job Cuts Report showed layoffs of 82,307 cuts for the month of January, a 136% increase from the previous month, a significant jump indicating layoffs are picking up. So, how can Friday’s through-the-roof employment report run so counter to that of the ADP, Household Survey and Challenger Job Cuts reports? I don’t have an empirical answer, but the data should correspond to a large extent, and it is not. Source: [ZeroHenge]( The market’s reaction was manyfold as bond and commodity prices traded down sharply, Treasury yields and the dollar traded solidly higher with big-cap tech stocks leading a rally in the S&P to new all-time highs while the Russell 2000 traded lower on a dimmed outlook for any kind of rate cuts soon. Companies beating Q4 estimates are getting richly rewarded and those that miss are getting sold off aggressively. [3 Steps for Surviving the "Perfect Storm" Market Crash]( Recent moves by the Fed could wipe out billions of dollars in the market…worse than the .com bubble, housing meltdown, or covid-crash combined. Navigating this requires more than gut instinct; it calls for the sophisticated edge that artificial intelligence trading software provides. [Learn to Protect Your Money Ahead of Any disastrous Event for FREE >]( The odds of a March rate cut are super low, with talk of a cut in May now being highly questionable. And despite all the euphoria surrounding a couple of big beats by the Magnificent Seven, there are dark clouds forming over some of the regional banks and foreign banks with too much of the wrong commercial real estate exposure. Bloomberg reported last Thursday night that Tokyo-based Aozora shares plunged by as much as 18.5% to their lowest levels since February 2021 in Tokyo trade. The Tokyo-based commercial lender said it now expects to post a net loss of 28 billion Japanese yen ($191 million) for the fiscal year ending March 31 after warning of U.S. commercial real estate losses. This report came on the heels of the earnings shocker out of New York Community Bancorp (NYCB), which posted an astonishing $522 loan loss provision related to the acquisition of Signature Bank and Flagstar Bank. NYCB also slashed its quarterly dividend by 70% to a nickel. Shares of NYCB lost 40% of their value in three days. “Banks are facing roughly $560 billion in commercial real estate maturities by the end of 2025, representing more than half of the total property debt coming due over that period. And commercial real estate loans account for 28.7% of assets at small banks.” “It’s clear that the link between commercial property and regional banks is a [tail risk for 2024](,” said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at wealth manager St. James’s Place. “And if any cracks emerge, they could be in the commercial, housing and bank sector.” Being we are in a Presidential election cycle, markets tend to be optimistic and put off unwelcome news into the following post-election year. There is growing geopolitical risk and some fear of inflation re-igniting if supply chains face wider disruptions and a federal debt bubble, but the U.S. economy is reporting economic data that generally supports a market that can add to its gains. And with the dollar turning higher, that only attracts further foreign capital flows seeking dollar-based assets. With that said, at some point, the market will care about these risks. Just as was in August through October last year, when the market swooned, there will be a change in the narrative from buying the dips to selling into rallies. At present, there is a strong bias to keep buying any pullbacks in stocks of companies posting great sales and earnings growth coupled with bullish guidance. Sincerely, [bryan-perry-sig] Bryan Perry Editor, Cash Machine Editor, Premium Income PRO Editor, Quick Income Trader Editor, Breakout Options Alert Editor, Micro-Cap Stock Trader About Bryan Perry: [Bryan Perry]Bryan Perry specializes in high dividend paying investments. This weekly e-letter combines his decades-long experience in income investing with a simple, easy-to-read format that investors of all stripes can work into their portfolios. Bryan also serves as Editor of these services: [Cash Machine]( [Premium Income PRO]( [Quick Income Trader]( [Breakout Profits Alert]( [Hi-Tech Trader]( and [Micro-Cap Stock Trader](. About Us: Eagle Financial Publications is located in Washington, D.C. – only a few blocks from the Capitol. Our products have been helping investors build their wealth for several decades. Whether you’re a long-term investor or short-term trader, you’ll find the right strategy for you, including how to earn more steady income to spend now, preserve and grow your capital to enjoy later, and whatever other investment goals you have. Visit Our Websites: - [StockInvestor.com]( - [DividendInvestor.com]( - [DayTradeSPY.com]( - [CoveredCall]( - [MarkSkousen.com]( - [GilderReport.com]( - [BryanPerryInvesting.com]( - [JimWoodsInvesting.com]( - [InvestmentHouse.com]( - [RetirementWatch.com]( - [SeniorResource.com]( - [GenerationalWealthStrategies.com]( - [InvestInFiveStarGems.com]( - [[YouTube] Visit our YouTube Channel - Eagle Investing Network]( To ensure future delivery of Eagle Financial Publications emails please add financial@info2.eaglefinancialpublications.com to your address book or contact list. This email was sent to {EMAIL} because you are subscribed to Bryan Perry's Dividend Investing Weekly. To unsubscribe from this list please click [here](. To stop receiving emails simply click [here](. If you have questions, please send them to [Customer Service](mailto:customerservice@eaglefinancialpublications.com). View this email in your [web browser](. Legal Disclaimer: Any and all communications from Eagle Products, LLC. employees should not be considered advice on finances. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized advice on finances. Eagle Financial Publications - Eagle Products, LLC. - a Salem Communications Holding Company 122 C Street NW, Suite 515 | Washington, D.C. 20001 [Link](