How Many Jobs Will We Lose In July 2020?

[Daily Financial Journal]( [TODAY'S DEAL: Honestly, you should get this book](mailto:editor@dailyfinancialjournal.com?subject=Give+me+my+top+stocks+for+2020&body=Give+me+my+top+stocks+for+2020) Todays Top News [How Many Jobs Will We Lose In July 2020?] How Many Jobs Will We Lose In July 2020? Even though we won’t know for sure until the Non-Farm Payroll data comes out on August 7th, the US Census Bureau can give us a good idea of what to expect. They have a survey called “The Household Pulse Survey” that they’ve been running for the past 3 months. Every single week, American citizens are asked about how certain aspects of their life have been affected by COVID-19. Finances, health, housing, schooling, food, and so forth. June 2020 resulted in an increase of 4.8 million jobs, which was much lower than the estimated jobs gain of 5.6 million. Yet for July 2020, the experimental data is estimating 6.7 million jobs lost in the month of July alone. If we are to assume this prediction is 100% accurate, we would be back to the employment rate last seen in June 2011. All of the job gains made in May and June would effectively be wiped out. For anybody who day-trades and profits from the gains they make on Non-Farm Payroll day (which is the first Friday of every month), make sure you have your seatbelts on. Furthermore, make sure you are keeping a very close eye on the updates regarding the second round of stimulus funding. Because one of two things can happen… One, the job losses are so minimal to the point where the major stock indices will continue to rise. The market will continue to express steadfast faith in the stimulus plan taking care of everything for just a few more months, thereby preventing the American economy from spiraling into complete disaster. Two, the job losses predicted by the Census Bureau are accurate and everything goes to the toilet. It may indeed be the very last straw that breaks the camel’s back and causes yet another dip similar to what we saw in late February. All hopes of a “V-shaped recovery” will be utterly destroyed. But let me know what YOU think will happen when the jobs report is released next Friday. Will it be as bad as we predict, or not as big of a deal? Reply to this newsletter with your prediction! Investing [Starbucks Is No Longer Making the “Big Bucks”] Starbucks Is No Longer Making the “Big Bucks” Well, Q2 2020 has proven to be an abject failure for the world’s largest coffee establishment. Starbucks has reported their very FIRST quarterly loss in Q2 2020 in the past seven years, coming up short with $3.1 billion in lost sales. In stock-market lingo, this has resulted in a loss of $0.58 per diluted share. This was attributed to coronavirus-associated costs, expensive safety measures rolled out to ensure stores could remain somewhat operational (although 400 stores will close over the next 18 months), and higher wages for employees. Yet there’s another harrowing trend which should keep the company awake at night: There is a growing shift in consumer demand from more expensive coffee beans to cheaper coffee beans. The costly ones are Arabica, the ones used in an overpriced cup of coffee at Starbucks. Robusta, the cheaper brand, is what you would find in instant coffee. Just take a look at the charts for Arabica and Robusta since the start of COVID-19. You can literally see demand for Arabica fall down as the demand for Robusta soars up. People want their coffee but they don’t want to overpay for it. Making it at home with an instant formula, a bit of milk, and a drop of sugar seems much more preferable now. Don't Miss This [Para-pa-pa-pam, My Profits Aren’t Loving It!] Para-pa-pa-pam, My Profits Aren’t Loving It! On the topic of international fast food chains, it looks like McDonald’s isn’t doing so well either. Similar to how Starbucks reported their first quarterly loss in seven years, McDonald’s reported Q2 2020 profits are at their LOWEST levels across the past 13 years. Their net income this quarter was $484 million, a shocking 68% decrease from Q2 2019. But perhaps we can’t take this loss in profits at face value, as McDonald’s claims they are on the fast track towards recovery. Almost all of their establishments are now open (despite in-restaurant dining not being available), and July’s revenue among its American locations is supposed to be back at “normal” levels. The real question is whether McDonald’s can sustain pre-pandemic levels of consumer demand despite severely limiting their offer. Face masks are mandatory in all of their American restaurants despite what state or city laws dictate, and sit-in dining won’t be back for several more weeks. Additionally, people are starting to get fed up with the ridiculously long queues. However long you had to wait for a Happy Meal in 2019, multiply it by 2 and you have a good idea of what angry customers are b*tching about. [Volatility Instruments: The New Target of Robinhood Day Traders] Volatility Instruments: The New Target of Robinhood Day Traders I always find it fascinating how Robinhood traders have this peculiar habit of attaching their capital to trading decisions that gain more popularity on the app. Bankrupt stocks, Tesla, and now… volatility exchange-traded funds (ETFs)? That’s right – these once-bullish investors are switching directions and becoming bearish, now convinced the economy is due for an eventual downturn. And the best way for them to profit from this prediction – without selling stocks – is to target volatility ETFs. Here’s the 101 on what they’re doing: The VIX is known as the volatility index for the S&P 500, but is best known as the “Fear Index”. When markets go down, the VIX generally goes up. When markets are rising/recovering, the VIX generally goes down. Quite straight forward. There are several volatility ETFs available on Robinhood, but three of them tracking short-term changes in VIX futures have gotten a ton of attention in February and March: - ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term (UVXY): +405% - iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX (VXX): +409% - ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (VIXY): +932% Just one problem: This type of investment will burn through the accounts of any long-term investor. Volatility ETFs are specifically suited for short-term gains and individuals who get a knack out of precisely timing market “tops” and “bottoms”. Not exactly a skill Robinhood traders have built up a reputation for. As always, stick to WHAT YOU KNOW in the stock market! [How to Reach $1 Million Without Starting Your Own Company] How to Reach $1 Million Without Starting Your Own Company Whenever we heard the stories of self-made millionaires, it inevitably ends up being a journey into the promising world of startups and entrepreneurship. Yet according to Tom Corley, author of the book Rich Habits, it’s entirely possible to reach the 7-figure mark while working FOR a company. How? Well, the answer is simple yet exceedingly difficult: Become an executive for a big company while negotiating great deals for stock compensation and performance bonuses. Reach an extremely high level of recognized expertise within a targeted niche of your industry to the point where you are “unfireable”. Build powerful relationships with influencers in your company and/or industry by frequently keeping in touch with people during common holiday events and important life events specific to the individual you are calling. Be a part of trade groups where you can further leverage your expertise into additional sources of income. That’s about the gist of what he had to say. It’s the old grind of climbing up the corporate ladder as fast as possible, and through any means necessary. What do YOU think about what Tom had to say? Do you agree with his perspective, or is he blowing smoke up his own ass? Reply to this newsletter and share your thoughts with us! [3M, Worldwide Manufacturer of N95 Masks, Takes a Stock Plunge] 3M, Worldwide Manufacturer of N95 Masks, Takes a Stock Plunge 3M was supposed to be the one company that saved the world. Delivered medical-grade N95 respirators to each and every adult as the WHO announced that everybody and their mother should be wearing face masks in public. However, despite worldwide demand for masks not having faltered one bit, 3M’s stock fell by 4.9% in yesterday’s trading session amidst Q2 2020 earnings that fell short of expectations. Sales were at $7.18 billion, a 12.2% decrease compared to Q1 2020. Here’s the thing: 3M projects being able to make 2 billion N95 respirators in 2020 alone, yet they claim this supply STILL cannot keep up with demand (despite their production value being 3-fold what it was in 2019). As for the disappointing earnings report, their focus on personal safety has come at the expense of steep declines in several other markets the company serves: General industrial, automotive manufacturing, and dental and medical elective procedures. Perhaps it’s time for 3M to enter a collaboration with a fellow rival? It seems rather unfair for 3M to shoulder all the blame for supplying a worldwide health crisis with the valuable resources it needs to stay protected… [Vote Now] PS. How useful did you find today’s update? Vote Now: [Not useful](mailto:editor@dailyfinancialjournal.com?subject=Not+useful&body=Not+useful+at+all+(DailyBrief)) - [It was ok](mailto:editor@dailyfinancialjournal.com?subject=It+was+okay&body=It+was+okay+(DailyBrief)) - [It was good](mailto:editor@dailyfinancialjournal.com?subject=It+was+good&body=It+was+good+(DailyBrief)) - [Very Useful](mailto:editor@dailyfinancialjournal.com?subject=Very+useful&body=Very+useful+(DailyBrief)) [FooterLogo] To ensure you receive our emails, be sure to whitelist us. [Unsubscribe]( | [Update Your Profile]( This email was sent by: Daily Financial Journal 1 INTERNATIONAL HOUSE LONDON, LONDON, EC1A 2BN, UK © Copyright 2020. All Rights Reserved.