This Year's Black Friday 'Battle' Already Has a Clear Winner

Last year, the Power Gauge was clear... Heading into Black Friday, there was already a winner and a loser between two of America's biggest mega-retailers. And folks, we're seeing that setup again. [Chaikin PowerFeed]( Editor's note: Our Chaikin Analytics offices will be closed this Thursday and Friday for Thanksgiving. So we won't publish our Chaikin PowerFeed e-letter either day. Look for your next issue on Monday, December 2. We hope you enjoy the holiday! This Year's Black Friday 'Battle' Already Has a Clear Winner By Vic Lederman, editorial director, Chaikin Analytics Last year, the Power Gauge was clear... Heading into Black Friday, there was already a winner and a loser between two of America's biggest mega-retailers. And folks, we're seeing that setup again. I discussed the situation in [mid-November last year](.... You see, Target's (TGT) stock had surged nearly 18% following its earnings release that month. On the other hand, Walmart's (WMT) stock fell roughly 8% after its earnings announcement the next day. That might have tricked some investors into betting on Target. After all, the company had performed poorly for years at that point. It seemed like a turnaround was in the works... But the Power Gauge was clear. Walmart held a "bullish" rating in our system. And Target eked out a "neutral" rating. In fact, Target had even been in "bearish" territory several times leading up to the earnings release. So a year later, as we head into another Black Friday, let's take a look at how Walmart and Target are doing... Recommended Links: [Porter's Permanent Portfolio Invitation Expires Tonight]( Because of the danger he sees ahead for the U.S. economy, Porter Stansberry is doing something he has NEVER done before (and may never do again) – he's offering access to some of the most advanced work of his career, his Permanent Portfolio, for thousands of dollars off the retail price. This is the perfect answer to what's coming to this country and our markets over the months and years ahead. Until midnight tonight, [click here to see Porter's exclusive invitation](. [What Are These Billionaire Investors Afraid Of?]( Billionaires Warren Buffett, Stanley Druckenmiller, George Soros, and David Tepper have all sold off massive U.S. stock positions, including shares of Nvidia, Apple, and Bank of America. Billionaire Ray Dalio, who runs one of the world's most successful hedge funds, says, "Things are going to get worse for our economy." What are these billionaires so worried about? [Click here to see why experts and insiders may be preparing for the biggest financial crisis of the past 200 years](. As it turns out, the Power Gauge's warning on Target was spot-on. If you've been following the retailer at all, you'll know it has struggled this year. In fact, "struggled" is an understatement... The company's stock has tumbled roughly 11% since the start of the year. And the chart looks terrible. Check it out... Unlike last year, Target has stumbled right before the beginning of the 2024 holiday season. Earnings estimates set the expectation of roughly $2.30 per share for the recent third quarter. Unfortunately, Target underperformed big time. The actual result came in at $1.85 per share when the company reported earnings last week. That's a roughly 20% miss. Like last year, the Power Gauge isn't impressed by the stock right now... As you can see in the bottom panel below the chart above, the company managed to find itself in "bullish" territory around the start of the year. But once again, Target gets a "neutral" rating in our system today. And take a look at the first panel below the chart. That shows Target's relative strength versus the S&P 500 Index. As you can see, the stock has underperformed the broad market since early May. On the other hand, Walmart is soaring. The stock is up a staggering 74% this year. Take a look at its chart... This is the kind of chart that every investor dreams of. Walmart's stock hasn't had huge, volatile price swings this year. And the price line is moving up and to the right. In short, the stock is in a steady uptrend. Interestingly, we can see in the first panel below the chart that Walmart began outperforming the market around the time that Target started underperforming. We also find that Walmart paints a dramatically different earnings picture. The company beat its recent third-quarter earnings estimates by about 9%. That's a huge win compared with Target's roughly 20% miss. And right now, Walmart gets a "bullish" rating in the Power Gauge. So, the charts look different than they did last year. And the earnings stories have changed, too. But the Power Gauge is still sending us a strong signal... Walmart's stock is soaring. The company has almost tripled the performance of the broad market. Meanwhile, Target looks like a mess by comparison. And the Power Gauge is clear on both... As I said earlier, Target earns a "neutral" rating from the Power Gauge. And Walmart is firmly "bullish." Target might turn around eventually... But I wouldn't rush out to buy the stock today. Walmart has already won this year's Black Friday "battle." Good investing, Vic Lederman Market View Major Indexes and Notable Sectors # Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish Dow 30 +0.29% 10 13 7 S&P 500 +0.54% 133 292 76 Nasdaq +0.54% 27 57 17 Small Caps -0.74% 595 1005 320 Bonds -0.37% Utilities +1.57% 6 24 1 — According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks are Bullish. Major indexes are all bullish. * * * * Sector Tracker Sector movement over the last 5 days Industrials +3.54% Health Care +3.51% Real Estate +3.12% Utilities +3.02% Financial +2.96% Materials +2.9% Discretionary +2.59% Staples +2.48% Information Technology +1.48% Communication +1.05% Energy -0.2% * * * * Industry Focus Transportation Services 12 30 2 Over the past 6 months, the Transportation subsector (XTN) has outperformed the S&P 500 by +10.89%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Very Strong, with more Bullish than Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #8 of 21 subsectors and has moved up 7 slots over the past week. Top Stocks [rating] AAL American Airlines Gr [rating] SNCY Sun Country Airlines [rating] ALGT Allegiant Travel Com * * * * Top Movers Gainers [rating] NRG +10.11% [rating] CEG +7.15% [rating] SJM +5.69% [rating] VST +5.53% [rating] WDC +5.18% Losers [rating] SMCI -10.36% [rating] GM -8.99% [rating] ALGN -5.23% [rating] BBY -4.89% [rating] MPWR -4.79% * * * * Earnings Report Earnings Surprises [rating] NTNX Nutanix, Inc. Q1 $0.42 Beat by $0.10 [rating] CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. Q3 $0.93 Beat by $0.12 [rating] WDAY Workday, Inc. Q3 $1.89 Beat by $0.13 [rating] DELL Dell Technologies Inc. Q3 $2.15 Beat by $0.09 [rating] ADSK Autodesk, Inc. Q3 $2.17 Beat by $0.05 * * * * You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to PowerFeed. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from PowerFeed, [click here](. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. 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