The 'Frozen' Housing Market Is Thawing

As you likely know, it has been a brutal two years for U.S. housing... But the current downturn isn't surprising. It's a result of the boom that started in 2020. [Chaikin PowerFeed]( The 'Frozen' Housing Market Is Thawing By Marc Chaikin, founder, Chaikin Analytics As you likely know, it has been a brutal two years for U.S. housing... But the current downturn isn't surprising. It's a result of the boom that started in 2020. When the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to near zero, it triggered a temporary housing boom. By late 2020, homes sales soared to more than 6.5 million (annualized). That's the highest level since early 2006. Let me put the recent boom in perspective... Americans sold an average of 5 million homes each year during the 2010s. That means the housing market was running at more than 30% above normal levels going into 2021. As we all know, every boom eventually fades... Recommended Links: [50-Year Wall Street Legend Who Called Bear Market Issues AI Warning]( He predicted the 2020 crash, the 2022 bear market, and the 2023 bank run. Now, 50-year Wall Street legend Marc Chaikin is speaking out on the AI bubble – and the threat of a devastating crash in the weeks ahead. Is it time to run for the hills – or buy the dip? If you own any stock in the Magnificent Seven, [click here](. ['Brace for 50% Unemployment']( At the esteemed Fortune Innovation Forum, a world-famous venture capitalist warned that HALF of all people on Earth could soon find themselves out of a job. Not thanks to a recession or a depression... but a new collapse that has only just begun. For the surprising story of this looming collapse... and what it could mean for your life and retirement savings, [click here](. So it's no surprise that homebuying plunged when interest rates started to rise in 2022. Annualized sales fell back below normal levels in July of that year. In the chart below, you can see the boom-and-bust cycle of the past few years. The dashed line shows the normal level of homebuying (the average annual rate of home sales during the 2010s). Take a look... [Chaikin PowerFeed] As you can see, the U.S. housing market has been running below normal for two years now. Interest rates are the biggest reason for low sales. If folks with low rates move, they would be giving up their existing rate for a higher one. Even worse, they would likely end up with a higher monthly mortgage bill – potentially on a smaller home. Put simply, high mortgage rates have created "golden handcuffs" for millions of prospective homebuyers. Homebuying activity is down a lot. But demand is surprisingly strong... The latest housing-market data shows that the median U.S. home price hit $426,900. That's a new all-time high. And it's up 4.1% versus a year ago. In short, the housing market might be in bad shape in terms of activity levels. But there's still plenty of pent-up demand to support prices. The other key factor is supply. New-home construction in the U.S. plunged after the housing bust more than a decade ago. And it stayed at extreme lows for the better part of a decade. Earlier this year, Realtor.com released a study on U.S. housing supply. It estimated that our country faces a shortage of about 7.2 million homes. In other words, the supply-demand situation will support prices for years to come. The most likely scenario is a slow, steady thaw in the housing market over the next few years. In fact, we're already seeing the early signs of this transition... For one, more folks are putting their homes up for sale. As of the end of June, more than 1.3 million homes were listed for sale in the U.S. That's up more than 23% versus a year ago. It's also a little more than four months of supply (based on the current rate of sales). That's the highest inventory level since May 2020. Another positive sign is prices. They're finally starting to decline in a few areas. Specifically, recent data showed that home prices fell in two cities in Texas (Austin and San Antonio) and two Florida markets (North Port and Cape Coral). Yes, mortgage rates are certainly still higher than they were a few years ago. But they're down from the recent peak late last year. And they've been going lower in recent months. All of this means that the housing market is getting moving again. And so are real estate stocks... In the past month, the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE) has jumped roughly 5%. Over the same time frame, the S&P 500 Index is down about 3%. Meanwhile, XLRE currently holds a "bullish" rating in the Power Gauge. That means our system sees more upside ahead for real estate stocks. If you're not paying attention to this space right now... I recommend you look into it. Good investing, Marc Chaikin Market View Major Indexes % Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish Dow 30 +0.20% 8 18 4 S&P 500 -0.10% 131 271 96 Nasdaq -0.33% 27 58 15 Small Caps +1.00% 370 1041 419 Bonds -0.96% Energy +1.10% 14 7 0 — According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks remain somewhat more Bearish than Large Cap stocks. Major indexes are mixed. * * * * Top Movers Gainers [rating] DXCM +9.27% [rating] GWW +7.51% [rating] EBAY +5.95% [rating] VRSN +5.68% [rating] NWL +5.14% Losers [rating] MHK -10.98% [rating] DVA -9.52% [rating] WDC -8.71% [rating] SBUX -6.30% [rating] EMN -5.46% * * * * Earnings Report Reporting Today Rating Before Open After Close ANET, FANG, MCK, MOS, SBAC BEN HOLX, L, NXPI, O, PSA, SPG, WMB CLX, LEG, VNO No earnings reporting today. Earnings Surprises [rating] PSX Phillips 66 Q3 $3.18 Beat by $1.26 [rating] CVX Chevron Corporation Q3 $2.96 Beat by $0.77 [rating] RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Q3 $-4.91 Missed by $-0.70 [rating] CHD Church & Dwight Co., Inc. Q3 $0.80 Beat by $0.09 [rating] CHTR Charter Communications, Inc. Q3 $6.50 Beat by $0.70 * * * * Sector Tracker Sector movement over the last 5 days Discretionary +4.36% Information Technology +1.98% Health Care +1.63% Materials +0.34% Real Estate +0.27% Staples -0.06% Communication -0.10% Industrials -0.30% Utilities -0.51% Energy -0.86% Financial -0.89% * * * * Industry Focus Homebuilders Services 5 26 4 Over the past 6 months, the Homebuilders subsector (XHB) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -8.14%. However, its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Strong, with more Bullish than Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #10 of 21 subsectors. Top Stocks [rating] BLDR Builders FirstSource [rating] TPH Tri Pointe Homes, In [rating] GRBK Green Brick Partners * * * * You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to PowerFeed. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from PowerFeed, [click here](. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. 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