Eternal springtime

[Bill Bonner’s Diary]( Eternal Springtime By Bill Bonner Tuesday, May 18, 2021 [Bill Bonner] YOUGHAL, IRELAND – “Transitory” or not? Economists are studying the numbers. Is inflation heating up… or cooling off? Should they be looking at the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The CPI-U (for urban customers)? With or without food and energy? The Personal Consumption Expenditure price index (PCE)? ShadowStats? They watch the thermometer and check the skies. In the following few words, we explain why we think they are wasting their time. You can tell it’s getting warmer by looking at data points. Check the thermometer every day and you may begin to see a trend. But if you are planting a crop or planning a vacation… you might also check the calendar. Yes, there are bigger patterns… longer… more durable… more predictable. Temperatures go up and down. You may see the temperature going down every day for a week. But come the month of May, the flowers come out anyway. Recommended Link [Is This Biden and Kamala Harris’ New America?]( [image]( A life-altering and disturbing plan is hatched at the highest level… away from Washington D.C. by a select group of faceless bureaucrats. Yet, President Biden and Kamala Harris embrace this disturbing plan to change how America operates. To push socialism and gain control of your money, your property, what you eat and how you socialize. You must take the necessary steps to fight back and protect your way of life. For full details on your next move… [See this briefing before it’s too late.]( Sunny Forecast Politico gives us the forecast: The very firm conventional wisdom around the financial industry is that the recent spike in inflation – which just hit the highest level in a decade – will be entirely transitory. Janet, Joe, and Jerome are telling us not to get too excited about the latest inflation numbers. Put away the umbrellas and raincoats, they say. Sunshine ahead. They believe there is too much “spare capacity” in the economy. It will need to be taken up, they say, before business or labor have any real pricing power. And those higher prices we are seeing? Don’t pay any attention to them, they add; they’ll be gone as soon as the problems in the supply chain are removed. Then, too, they say that price levels were so low a year ago – caused by the COVID-19 scare – that the latest measurement of inflation is cockeyed. What we are looking at is a statistical aberration, they say, not real inflation. [Featured: New Investment “Craze” Hits All 50 States]( Irrelevant Argument On the other side, the inflation alarmists believe the “spare capacity” argument is poppycock. They see storm clouds building. This inflation is “intentional, deliberate, and disastrous,” writes colleague Simone Wapler. It is structural, not cyclical. So the “spare capacity” is irrelevant. Venezuela, for example, has idle factories, idle land, and idle labor aplenty. But it also had inflation two years ago at 10,000,000%. And in America, businesses can’t find people to take up jobs. They are forced to raise wages. But it’s not because there aren’t plenty of idle hands available. More likely, it is because the feds were too promiscuous with their stimmy money. In many cases, people got more money from being unemployed than they used to get on the job. And then, too, 30 years of stimmy – with ultra-low interest rates and Fed-backed asset markets – has created a “financialized” economy… where the big money is no longer made by honest labor or investment – producing goods and services (real wealth) for others – but by borrowing and speculating. Recommended Link [Millionaire’s Big Prediction From Living Room Couch]( [image]( Teeka Tiwari – America’s No. 1 Investor – just made an outrageous prediction. Recorded live from his living room couch… He blasts Congress, reveals nasty truths about America… And reveals one technology set to radically change our nation. Already, 400,000+ viewers have checked it out. WARNING: This video may make you furious. [Watch His Urgent Video Now]( Never Better Naturally, the rich – and the elite – have never had it better. They own the assets the Federal Reserve has been pumping up. Can you blame the not-so-rich for wanting to join them? [As we reported here]( one of the latest fad cryptos went up 1,700% in just a week earlier this month. And the whole crypto sector came from nothing just over a decade ago to be now worth more than $2 trillion. That’s “wealth” that didn’t exist a few years ago. And it’s enough to make a whole generation believe it is more profitable to trade cryptos than to work. Again, it was the inflation that caused the “spare capacity,” not the other way around. As for the “low base” argument, you can look through the freakish Plague Year figures by “stacking” the inflation readings up in two-year increments. What you see is the same rising trend line, but at a gentler angle. [Featured: Biden, Elites Set to Roll Out Elites’ “Great Reset” of America]( Perpetual Springtime Here at the Diary, we are sometimes right, sometimes wrong… and always in doubt. Will the April numbers mark the decisive turning point – when inflation turns definitively and dramatically upwards? Or will they turn out to be more like an exploratory mission by UFOs… before the full invasion force takes over the planet, making pets of the few humans who survive? We’ll know in a few months. In the meantime, we reach for a deeper insight. Consumer price inflation comes as a result of monetary inflation; that is all we know for sure. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) tells us that government is the source of money (which the MMTers believe is the same as wealth). It’s government printing and spending that make the money world turn, they say. They add that the feds can print and spend as much as they want – “investing” to create a safer, more prosperous, and more perfect union – until consumer price inflation rises. When that day comes, they promise, they will “pivot” to inflation-fighting policies. But lo! That day came [last Wednesday](. And what’s this? Quelle surprise! Their eyes still on the thermometer… they tell us why the recent readings are not to be trusted. “No need to pivot just yet,” they say. We live in a world of perpetual springtime; they’re convinced of it. Stocks always push up, like jonquils in April. The warm rain of deficits and money-printing eternally stirs the dull roots of the economy. And any datapoint outside the springtime range must be a fluke. Recommended Link [Today: Get Silicon Valley Insider Jeff Brown’s Top 10 5G Recommendations for 2021 for just $4.90 Each]( [image]( Only valid while special offer lasts. [Click here to get the full details.]( Too Late They would do better to go back to the calendar. It’s not government printing and spending that create real wealth; instead, as sure as June follows May, they create real inflation. And if you wait for the Bureau of Labor Statistics to confirm the trend, it may be too late to plant your radishes. Regards, [signature] Bill --------------------------------------------------------------- Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to [feedback@rogueeconomics.com](mailto:feedback@rogueeconomics.com?subject=Eternal springtime). --------------------------------------------------------------- FEATURED READS [One Billionaire Investor Is Concerned About the Economy]( investor Barry Sternlicht sees worrisome indicators in the U.S. economy that could spell long-term issues following the COVID-19 crisis. Who does he blame for these indicators? The feds and their stimulus… [The Stocks That Can Protect Your Portfolio From Volatility]( colleagues over at the Palm Beach Research Group are concerned about inflation, just as Bill is. And they’ve begun preparing their portfolios. Today, learn about their “untouchables” stocks strategy… that can protect you during downturns and also outperform in rallies… MAILBAG A dear reader shares his thoughts on Bill’s essay, “[Warning: Crash Alert!]( while others turn to politics to help explain what’s happening in the U.S… Be glad you’re not getting all the government you’re paying for… That’s a good one. Has anyone been to the grocery store yet? Not only are prices higher on everything, but look at the shelves. What’s missing? How about the quantity of items available? Look at any shelf. Spices, chicken, beef, all the same thing. And what beats it all is I can’t find liverwurst to give my dog, Charlie, his daily medications. Liverwurst has been missing off the shelves in all the grocery stores around me for two months. That’s my indication of a black flag index – no available liverwurst. The U.S. is going to Hell in a handbasket… fast and furiously. – Mark S. The Democratic party destroying this economy? Hell, they built this economy from the ashes left from the Republican debacle, after George W. left the White House… – Travis J. Wonder if the Democratic Party is looking any further than staying in power. Any prudent observer realizes that their business is government. So, the larger government is, the more secure they are. The more “victims” they create, the more bureaucrats they need to “help” them. Never has been in the best interests of the citizens or our country. They are adept at preying on people’s emotions to get elected. All of the rhetoric can be seen through, though, if one chooses to look. Many look no further than the fact that Democrats say they are for the average American. It has always been hard for me to believe that. And so many have fallen for their empty promises. As you have written, often, deficit spending and “fake money” have and continue to erode the purchasing power of the dollar. Who does this hurt most? The people they say they are helping. Wake up, America; they aren’t helping you. They never have. – Peter M. Are you having trouble finding certain items at your local grocery stores, as Mark is? What do you think is the cause of supply chain issues? Write us at [feedback@rogueeconomics.com](mailto:feedba