[Bill Bonner’s Diary](
Waiting for the Guillotine
By Bill Bonner
Friday, June 12, 2020 – Week 13 of the Quarantine
[Bill Bonner]
SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – What a delight it is to be an American! What a spectacle!
No matter how stupid, malignant, ignorant, or evil you are… there’s always someone – a member of Congress, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, or the president himself – who is an even bigger jackass than you are.
And no matter how dumb any idea you may have… there’s always a large part of the public that will believe it.
Knucklehead Ideas
Human history is largely a story of myths, lies, and delusions. They made possible some of our greatest achievements… and our biggest disasters.
The Egyptian pyramids wouldn’t exist, for example, if large groups of people had not believed something that was untrue. They thought Pharaoh was divine… and that they should build monuments to him.
As it happened, they devoted nearly the entire economic surplus of the rich Nile Delta to putting up huge piles of stone in his honor.
And would civilization ever have reached such giddy heights as it did before the French Revolution… had not the masses accepted “aristocratic privilege” as a fact of life?
Then again, World War II wouldn’t have happened without Hitler’s “Übermensch” delusion. It proved to be great fodder for the History Channel, but resulted in a world war with 60 million dead. And it left Germany in cinders… and the master race crushed under the heel of Untermensch foreigners.
We are always asked to believe what isn’t true. Though rarely have we been asked to believe so many knucklehead ideas all at once.
But here at the Diary, money is our beat… so let’s stick with that.
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Feds on the Case
In response to the hysteria over the coronavirus, the authorities shut down the economy. And now, they say they can “throw the switch” and turn it back on again… and things will go back to “normal” in a matter of weeks…
Stocks were already at all-time highs in January 2020, when the virus arrived on the scene. In the panic that ensued when the virus spread around the world, they sold off. And for good reason – companies are not worth as much when the revenues stop coming in.
But then, the feds were on the case… with a $2.2 trillion bailout bill… nearly $3 trillion in new money-printing… a $4 trillion national debt increase… and, coming soon – another $1 trillion in “stimulus” spending.
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The stock market soared, rising 45% from its bottom in March. Investors said they were “looking through” the horrible news – 20% unemployment… a federal deficit at 20% of GDP… 20,000 business failures… rents unpaid… mortgages in default – to the bright future on the other side.
A “V”-shaped comeback is on the way, or so they say. It will be like a “rocket ship,” says POTUS.
In other words, they were buying the dip based on the idea – obviously fraudulent – that Federal Reserve governors can deftly guide the economy to a prompt, full recovery… and that printing-press money will make assets more valuable.
The trick, of course, is to keep a clear head about it. Some myths are useful. Some are sinister, even lethal.
And some myths, no matter how absurd, can be played for profit. Some people must have prospered from building the pyramids, for example, even if it meant a lifetime of hard labor for the common man.
And many people made money in World War II, too, even while millions of common soldiers were shot to bits when they went “over the top.”
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A Good Strategy
Today, a shrewd speculator might think he is one of the lucky ones. He might anticipate the flood of money coming into the stock market from the Federal Reserve. He might figure he can catch the rising tide.
But watch out. Yesterday, the water level dropped suddenly. This morning, the selloff has reversed. Tomorrow, who knows?
But some things are more predictable than others. As the situation on Main Street worsens (bankruptcy filings are becoming more frequent than new COVID-19 cases), the Federal Reserve will surely double down on its hallucinations.
[This top financial expert just returned from a private meeting with members of the Senate Financial Services Committeeâ¦](
The gambler might confidently expect the Fed to open its floodgates once more – with even more trillions of fake money. Here’s Reuters:
The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday signaled it plans years of extraordinary support for an economy facing a torturous slog back from the coronavirus pandemic, with policymakers projecting the economy to shrink 6.5% in 2020 and the unemployment rate to be 9.3% at year’s end.
Stocks go down; the Fed prints more money. Simple enough.
“Buying the dip,” could turn out to be a good strategy.
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Gigantic Fraud
But… our hypothesis is that the myth of money-printing is ruining the U.S. economy, undermining its social stability, and corrupting its government. Today, people in the Wall Street economy have the Federal Reserve to thank for much of their wealth. Like French aristocrats before the Revolution, they’re happy with the two-system system.
And while quick-witted speculators might be able to turn a profit by gaming the system and front-running the Fed, we urge caution.
Eventually, if we’re right… there will be Hell to pay. There will be no monuments – like Cheops or the Sphinx – for tourists to admire 1,000 years from now.
Instead, there will just be the sordid, sorry history of a gigantic fraud…
…the chaos, destruction, and poverty…
…and the sad stories of the speculators who forgot to leave town before the tumbrils started to roll.
Regards,
[signature]
Bill
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MAILBAG
In today’s mailbag, one dear reader is appalled at Bill’s call to defund the police…
Wow! I can’t believe you actually want to defund the local police department, Bill!! The local police department is all that stands between the citizens and the criminals! You just lost my respect! The local police are some of my friends and some of the best people I know! They are not the Deep State or crooked politicians! They are who you call when the criminals are attempting to rob and do you harm! They are my neighbors. They didn’t run off to some far-leftist country and hide!! Bill, have you joined the Overthrow America mob?
– Jack J.
And others reflect on Thursday’s Diary, “[The System Is Rigged Against the Common Man](
The top 10% will stay rich and get richer. One hand washes the other, and these people are slick and ruthless. This is nothing new. Life is unfair. But I disagree that people deserve this. They have been played. Maybe when the debt proves too much, some of those sails will get trimmed – for a time. In a few short years, the same folks will have the money again. If we’re still here.
– Michael C.
While I agree with Bill Bonner that our government is badly in need of some heavy pruning, it was disappointing to see him segue into the “politics of envy” with his remarks on who got the bulk of the benefit from all the government’s largess of late. A lot of people, including more than half the nation’s retirees, have $100,000 or more invested in stocks, either directly or indirectly, in the form of personal investments, pensions, 401(k)s, IRAs, annuities, etc.
It’s also disappointing to read his statement about who “made $15,000,” when all he’s talking about is a paper gain on assets held. No one makes or loses anything until a transaction takes place.
– Kurt H.
What might result from defunding the police and other governmental organizations? What will happen when the “debt proves too much,” as Michael alludes to? Write us at feedback@rogueeconomics.com.
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