China's economy has a Jordan Peterson problem

Creative punctuation is a lot like cherry-picked data: Eventually, people see through it. [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a lumpy soup of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions, which will be greatly improved once you complete [this survey](. Today’s Agenda - [China]( is not [roaring back](. - [Unemployment]( is tough to track. - [AI doomers]( have stacks on stacks. - [Japanese politicians]( are under attack. The Art of Book Blurbs The [hot gossip]( of the day is that the plaudits on the back cover of Jordan Peterson’s paperback book are actually just cherry-picked quotes (I know — gasp!!!). Two prominent book critics — James Marriott and Johanna Thomas-Corr — [took to Twitter]( when they found out that their reviews had been gerrymandered, thanks to a series of gratuitously placed ellipses: Reading it, you’d imagine these members of the literary world are staunch supporters of the book, right? But no: Thomas-Corr says the “horrifying” blurb is a “gross misrepresentation” of her 2,000-[word]( [review](, where she called the book a “lumpy soup” that was “filtered through Peterson’s prejudices.” And although Marriott’s quote describes the book as “a philosophy of the meaning of life,” it conveniently fails to mention that he [called]( the philosophy “bonkers.” As for the Telegraph excerpt — “wisdom combined with good advice” — you won’t be shocked to hear that it omits the word “hokey,” which came before “wisdom” in the [actual review](. The whole scandal has inspired me to embark on a journey, or, more specifically, an exercise, to see if I can spin scathing commentary into something more agreeable — compelling, even. And what greater subject matter than China, a country that notoriously touts cherry-picked data? Readers, if China wrote a book and dared to use Bloomberg Opinion columnists as their back-cover cheerleaders, this is what I imagine it’d look like: OK, OK. Not as good as Peterson’s back-of-the-book devilry, but still! It sounds like our writers are totally pleased with China, when in fact they are not. Back-tracking, their full quotes read: “Most reports point to an economy that, far from roaring back from Covid Zero, is [struggling]( to make much headway.” – Daniel Moss “The shift in the balance between the world’s two leading economies is clearest when looking at bond yields. For many years, China’s 10-year bonds have consistently yielded more than Treasuries, which makes eminent sense when China’s economy has been growing so much faster. But [no more](.” – John Authers and Isabelle Lee Take one look at this chart and you’ll see evidence of that shift: For many months, President Xi Jinping has wanted the world to think that China is A-OK, which might be why he’s held back on releasing [stimulus]( thus far. But hiding the truth is never a permanent solution: It always comes back to bite you, one way or another. All but one of the 15 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg thought the People’s Bank of China would leave rates unchanged this week. But no, it decided to [lower]( the rate on its one-year loans by 15 basis points to 2.5%, the second cut since June and the most since 2020. Now, everyone is seeing China’s economy for what it really is: [struggling](. “The world has become so accustomed to a China that turns in enviable economic results that it's hard to get our heads around what happens when slow growth becomes the norm rather than the exception,” Daniel writes. The yuan is close to a 14-year low, and Shuli Ren says the outlook for the [real estate market]( is uglier than ever. The US is not too pleased about all this: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says China’s losing streak is a “[risk factor](” for the American economy, and President Joe Biden referred to it as a “[ticking time bomb](.” And yet, the country still hasn’t learned its lesson around sketchy facts: Authorities announced that they’re [halting]( publication of figures on [youth unemployment]( so that they can try to “improve data collection” — an extremely sus move, if you ask me. It further fans “fears about the lack of [data transparency](,” John and Isabelle write. I don’t know what’s worse: making your book look good by manipulating quotes, or making your country look good by manipulating data. Either way, I’m not buying it. Bonus China Reading: - Biden's proposed curbs on US investment in China’s tech sector are rather weak — and [that’s a virtue](. — Bloomberg’s editorial board - China’s obsession with [monster movies]( could change the genre for the worse. — Howard Chua-Eoan The Art of Statistical Noise Reduction If I were to tell you that you’re about to read a bunch of paragraphs about the estimated sampling errors of economic statistics, would you … - Keep reading! Sampling errors are sooo fun! - Bang your head against the nearest table or desk. - Skip this section entirely because blah blah blah. I imagine you’d want to do 2 or 3, or some headache-inducing combination of the two. And I — and Justin Fox — really wouldn’t blame you! “Paying too much heed to the error inherent in economic statistics can not only be boring but misleading,” Justin explains. For that reason alone, I am going to try to keep this section of the newsletter shorter than a 58-year-old TikTok creator's [career](, by which I mean rather brief. In March, the unemployment rate for Black Americans fell to 5% — the lowest rate ever recorded since the Bureau of Labor Statistics started collecting the data in 1972. And in April, the rate fell even further to 4.7%. Understandably, this milestone [received]( a [lot]( of [attention](, Justin writes. At that point, the percentage gap between Black and White unemployment was just 1.6 — huzzah, an [all-time low](! But then things started to go backward: The Black unemployment rate jumped back to 6% in June, and in July, it went back to 5.8%, pretty much where we were when this whole roller coaster began: So what gives? “As should be clear from the above chart, the Black unemployment rate is much more volatile than the White one. So volatile that there’s a good chance its headline-generating fall and rise this spring was just statistical noise,” Justin writes. You see, reading BLS data month-to-month is pretty much like reading a tabloid on the latest [celebrity breakup](: Even if the headlines say so-and-so’s relationship is donezo, there’s always a nonzero chance of them getting back together next month. A better way to evaluate the data would be to use a three-month moving average, like so: Looking at it this way, the Black-White unemployment gap is still pretty narrow by historical standards, which Justin still says is “a welcome sign of possible structural change,” not a reason to bang your head against the nearest table. Read [the whole thing](. Telltale Tweets That’s right, TWEETS! Or, sure, exes, if you swing that way. Today, in honor of the death of [Tweetdeck]( (RIP, you were a real one), we’re ditching Telltale Charts and mixing things up … Regardless of whether you think AI is going to supercharge the economy (Tyler Cowen is of the opinion that [it won’t](), there’s no denying that it’s going to lead to disruption, some way or another. Naturally, nonprofit groups are gearing up for that future, but not all of them are on equal footing. The “AI doomers,” as Parmy Olson [calls them](, have what seems like a gajillion dollars at their disposal to fight the coming “apocalypse.” In comparison, research groups that are working to solve AI’s present-day harms are getting pennies. Part of the disparity has to do with the fact that “existential risk groups” often become valuable investments, she writes. A little-known fun fact for you: OpenAI was once an “existential” nonprofit itself. In 2015, billionaire benefactors donated to its cause to combat future threats from AI. Now, a gray area “has emerged from groups and companies that position themselves as doing work to prevent catastrophic risk from AI by, bizarrely enough, racing to create more powerful AI,” Parmy writes. So what started out as a “good cause” is now creating more problems, like [botched]( [LinkedIn photos](: As a proud member of the I-Was-Unsuccessful-In-Securing-Taylor-Swift-Tickets Club, there’s nothing more annoying than seeing someone on social media attend the Eras Tour twice. The audacity! The greed! How dare they do that! Call me bitter, call me jealous, call me all those things, because I am. It’s upsetting, seeing people frolic around in stadiums, swapping friendship bracelets with strangers, when I’m stuck at home watching snippets of the show on TikTok. I imagine that’s a bit how Japanese voters felt when they saw [this picture]( of their prominent female politicians striking a pose in front of the Eiffel Tower. The audacity! The greed! How dare they do that while everyone else is stuck at home, dealing with inflation, higher airline prices and a [torrential downpour](! Gearoid Reidy says “critics blasted the group for sharing an enjoyable moment,” causing them to eventually issue an apology. That said, too many naysayers could drive diverse talent away from the public sector, Gearoid [warns](. In that light, the backlash could end up undermining Japan’s government for years to come. Further Reading Montana’s [climate ruling]( is not as good as it seems. — Mark Gongloff NASA’s $500 million [rocket gamble]( is a moonshot worth taking. — Adam Minter India’s [biggest billionaires]( are trying to not step on each other’s toes. — Andy Mukherjee Republicans appear rather [uninterested]( in being likable right now. — Francis Wilkinson British savers can get their hands on higher rates. [Here’s how](. — Stuart Trow The [shipping industry]( pendulum is swinging back to normal. — Brooke Sutherland ICYMI Goldman’s dissidents test the CEO’s [deputy](. Snapchat users are [freaked out]( by its AI bot. Google is building an [AI life coach](. Three cheers for the [gayest World Cup]( ever. A small [Minnesota]( town will soon be police-less. Kickers [Starter jackets]( are back, baby! The [baffling hair]( of Argentina’s primary winner. Celebrities don’t know how [to be hot](. L’eggo my Egg-oh no, not [this](. (h/t Robert Burgess) [Crispy potatoes]( might be the key to life. (h/t Mike Nizza) Shake Shack is hiring a [chief avocado officer](. Notes: Please send life-saving crispy potatoes and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Threads](, [TikTok](, [Twitter](, [Instagram]( and [Facebook](. Follow Us You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. 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