DeSantis-Musk 2024? No, it's just a ‘conversation’

Plus: The Greenspan Skip, China's coal diet and more. Bloomberg This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a real-life laboratory for Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - [DeSantis’s fight]( is just beginning. - Powell should pull a [Greenspan](. - [China’s coal diet]( is a debt disaster. - Latin America needs [social democracy](. Ron DeSwampis I can’t be the only one who saw [this headline]( yesterday and had a minor panic attack that Elon Musk — [spreader]( of [conspiracies](, mocker of [pronouns](, digger of [tunnels]( — was a candidate for the second-highest elected office of the United States of Freaking America: The only thing worse than Musk as VP would be a Trump-Putin 2024 ticket — but that’s a nightmare scenario that I’ll let Andreas Kluth [explain](. Thankfully, Musk is merely [playing host](: At 6 p.m. EDT, Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida will go on [Twitter Spaces]( to announce that he’s [running for president]( (and maybe do some [finger-pudding ASMR](). DeSantis is currently polling at 20%, so he’s still the leading alternative to former President Donald Trump — which is “not a bad position” to be in, according to Jonathan Bernstein, but it’s still a downswing from where he was [earlier this year](: Interestingly, Jonathan says “the story DeSantis would perhaps most like to mimic would be that of Barack Obama in 2008,” who started his run strong but then fell behind Hillary Clinton. It wasn’t until the Iowa caucuses that he started looking like a formidable candidate. DeSantis, too, is in a bit of a slump, and nobody knows how an audio-only announcement on Twitter will play out. Most people opt for more grand entrances (see: [Trump’s golden escalator ride](), but DeSantis appears to be taking a different tack. Earlier this week, he [dropped the “FL”]( from his Twitter handle, and now his campaign is teasing [Florida’s most dangerous mascot]( — the gator — swimming in what appears to be … a swamp. Serious question: Does he call his staffers “gator aids?” Source: Twitter Now, for those of you who have successfully managed to wipe the 2016 presidential campaign from your memory — no judgment, I’d do it too if I could! — let me remind you that Trump ran pledging to “drain the swamp.” Is that the very same swamp that DeSantis now appears to be swimming in? Is he maybe trying to imply that (spoiler alert) the swamp has … not been drained? (It’s almost as scary as finding out that the [call is coming from inside the house](.) Trump, despite his tender affection for [all things Florida](, hasn’t made his disdain for DeSantis a secret, having come up with not one but [eight nicknames]( for the governor: Meatball Ron, Tiny D, Ron DeEstablishment, Ron DisHonest, Ron DeSanctimonious … honestly I’m surprised he hasn’t gone for Ron DeSwamp, but perhaps he doesn’t want to admit that the swamp still exists. DeSantis bills himself as “[Trump without the baggage](,” but certain (fr)enemies are suspicious of that label. Just today, Republican presidential hopeful Nikki Haley — who just got herself [a CNN town hall]( — called DeSantis a “[mini-Trump]( … without the charm.” He has [made himself]( [the villain]( against America’s most lovable cartoon character, [Mickey Mouse](. He’s vocalized his fantasy of having a far-right Supreme Court with [a 7-2 conservative majority](. And he’s done plenty of other radical things on top of being [opposed to gay people](: He’s [banned books](, he’s banned [abortions after six weeks](, he’s banned [gender-affirming care](, he’s even [banned so-called “woke” ESG](, which Matthew Winkler says is [bound to backfire on Florida’s economy](. Whether these legislative actions are “what Republicans in Iowa, New Hampshire and beyond are looking for is hard to say,” Jonathan writes. It’s certainly possible that [DeSantis’s gator]( has what it takes to snap up the 2024 nomination. But the odds of him doing so are murkier than a Floridian swamp. Read [the whole thing](. Skipping Along “The Greenspan Skip” sounds like some sort of weird swing dance your great uncle would try and teach you after guzzling one too many glasses of apricot schnapps on Thanksgiving. “It’s what all the [ducky shincrackers]( used to do!” he’d say, springing into action. But alas, TGS has nothing to do with dancing or prancing. Jonathan Levin says former [Fed Chair Alan Greenspan was big on skipping interest-rate increases]( throughout the 1990s and managed to “Maestro” his way into one of those mythical soft landings often dreamed of but rarely achieved: “That period serves as a useful analogue for today’s Fed,” Jonathan writes, arguing that “a temporary hiatus needn’t signal that policymakers are done.” In the 90s, inflation was cooler than a pair of [Steve Madden platform sandals](, but GDP was exploding, and many economists suspected that higher prices were just around the corner. Greenspan, ever the gentleman, said there’s no need to rush anything. He waited and gave each of his policy moves a bit more breathing room in case any indicators were lagging — a gambit that paid off. “The current period feels a lot like a real-life laboratory for economic theory … it’s conceivable that the Fed just needs to give it time,” Jonathan writes. And it’s true: There is certainly a lot going on right now, what with the debt ceiling hanging over our heads like a [mangled cloud](. John Authers, who luckily spells his name differently from Jonathan, looked at a more recent era — [the last time the US narrowly avoided a default]( — to see if there were any more lessons to glean. Back in August of 2011, the spectacle of negotiations put investors around the globe on high alert. “The political deal to avert default was more the start of the market’s problems than the end of them,” John writes, explaining how stocks — which were already struggling before the deal was reached “dropped much more after the ceiling had been successfully raised.” But as in the 1990s, inflation in 2011 was also pretty tame. There’s no perfect historical guide for the current moment: “Jerome Powell cannot promise that rates will be at zero for the next two years in current circumstances,” he writes. But maybe, just maybe, Powell can try and do The Greenspan Skip. It’s what your great uncle would have wanted. Telltale Charts In order to keep the lights on, [China has resorted to using buckets of coal]( — which, in addition to being horrible for the environment, is perhaps the least ergonomic power source known to man: “As anyone who’s tried cooking with both a gas and charcoal-fired grill will know, solid fuel is ill-suited to this sort of operation,” David Fickling writes. “Coal plants, like charcoal barbecues, take a long time to be coaxed to and from their operating temperatures.” The economics don’t lie — and neither does the physics: Eduardo Porter has [two words for Latin America: Social democracy](. It worked in the Mediterranean, so why not try it in Mexico? For far too long, redistribution in Latin America was a non-starter, seen as excessive by far-right economic elitists and as insufficient by left-wing revolutionaries. Inequality in many of these “countries is not much deeper than Europe’s, before taxes and government benefits kick in,” Eduardo writes, “but the public sector does next to nothing to close the gap.” A network of welfare states in the Western Hemisphere is possible, but it’ll take a lot of brainpower and cash. Further Reading Does Target believe in LGBTQ rights? [The Pride merch debacle]( offers a chance to answer. — Leticia Miranda The [child mortality rate]( won’t recover if we don’t make some lifestyle changes. — F.D. Flam India’s [bankruptcy law]( leaves much to be desired. — Andy Mukherjee Drake’s record label is making a bet on [machine-made music](. — Lionel Laurent South Africa is not the [continental superpower]( it once was. — Charles Onyango-Obbo [The Tory Party]( needs to stop hyperventilating about “blobs.” — Adrian Wooldridge [Marks & Spencer]( is looking fresh as a daisy these days. — Andrea Felsted Exxon’s desperate attempt to control [the climate narrative]( is revealing. — Mark Gongloff and Liam Denning ICYMI It has been one year since [Uvalde](. Music legend [Tina Turner]( passed away. [Senator Oprah]( would be a plot twist. How [TikTok]( shares your data. Kickers Sir, your [$6,000 vacation]( is overpriced. LA’s [shade structures]( are a joke. A [paralyzed man]( can walk again. Unpacking the beast that is [Bama Rush](. NASA’s “[Deep Space Food Challenge](” is wild. Notes: Please send fly larva and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net. 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