Russia set an energy trap and walked right into it

Breaking up Credit Suisse. [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a street fight of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - Russia is [losing the energy war](. - The US needs [friendshoring]( to compete with China. - We may have just [hit peak GDP](. - [Breaking up Credit Suisse]( will be hard to do. Stop Hitting Yourself, Russia There are social media accounts that specialize in videos of street fights. It’s not something I recommend watching, unless for some reason you need to dial back your optimism about humanity. But they are instructional: Again and again, you vicariously learn harsh lessons about not starting things you can’t finish. If Russia were in one of these videos, it would be the belligerent bro at the 7-Eleven who thinks he can bully the smaller guy in line in front of him, except — surprise! — the smaller guy is an MMA instructor. Russia invaded Ukraine expecting to be running the place by lunchtime and is now picking its teeth out of the Take-a-Penny, Leave-a-Penny tray. Worse, Russia also tried to scare Ukraine’s friends out of the fight by wielding its brass energy knuckles, causing oil and gas prices to soar. But the West is now [prying that weapon out of Russia’s hands](, Clara Ferreira Marques writes, and will soon start bodying Russia with it. We’ve found workarounds for Russian energy; Europe is now swimming in so much gas it costs [less than zero](. Plus we’ve hurried up our embrace of renewables that will make Russia’s fossil fuels obsolete. And being deprived of foreign dollars and expertise will mean more of those fuels stay in the ground.    Meanwhile, all the [money we don’t give to Russia, Saudi Arabia]( and other odious petrostates is money we can spend on the (very, very expensive) green-energy transition, Liam Denning writes. That will make Russia’s energy weapon even less threatening. Should have just quietly enjoyed your Slurpee like the rest of us, Vladimir. Let’s Make Friends Xi Jinping stunned everybody this morning by [saying]( nice things about President Joe Biden. Maybe this means all the wolf-warrior, Cold War II stuff of the past few years is done and we can finally get back to globalizing. But probably not. China still wants Taiwan and global dominance, and the US still wants, you know, not that. But in its zeal to compete, the Biden administration, like the Trump one before it, oversells how easily we can turn the clock back to the days when everything Americans consumed was made in America. That toothpaste won’t go back in the tube, writes Shannon O’Neil. Instead of trying to reshore factories, the [US should emulate China]( by doing a lot more “friendshoring”: Just as Beijing has turned Asia into a regional supply hub, the US could do the same thing to the Americas. Globalization may be doomed, but half-globalization might tide us over. Oh, and if the West is really going to compete with China, it might want to stop doing goofy things like Germany selling a [huge chunk of a key port terminal to China](, writes Matthew Brooker. You’d think Germany had learned its lesson with the whole “putting vital infrastructure in the hands of bloodthirsty dictators” thing, but apparently not. Is the Economy Strong or Weak? Yes. America’s gross domestic product was not at all recessiony in the third quarter, the government reported today (those [Chicago guys]( again!). But that’s about the end of the good news, writes Jonathan Levin. The [fourth quarter will be much weaker](, and the effects of the Fed bludgeoning the economy and markets with rate hikes will keep doing damage long after that. The dilemma for businesses in this pre-recession lull, Karl Smith writes, is [whether to raise wages to keep workers]( in a strong labor market, simultaneously responding to and fueling the inflation everybody fears, or to freeze wages to cut costs, thus responding to and fueling the recession everybody fears. Fun. Further Economics Reading: Consumers are finally showing signs of [trading down and getting frugal](. — Andrea Felsted Telltale Charts Credit Suisse is finally doing the right thing and [blowing itself up](, but Paul Davies warns it will be costly and risky. (Matt Levine has [more on the restructuring](.) [Value investing isn’t dead](, John Authers writes; it’s just [pining for the fjords](. Further Reading That [one polio case in New York]( is a global disaster. — Bloomberg’s editorial board [Democratic meddling in GOP primaries]( seems to have been effective. — Jonathan Bernstein A [debt-ceiling fight]( next year could hurt markets in these very specific ways. — Aaron Brown Biden needs to be ready to [crack down on Ethiopian war crimes]( if peace talks fail. — Bobby Ghosh  Don’t write off [retooled Covid boosters]( just because of a couple of small, ambiguous studies. — Lisa Jarvis Climate change is [killing the good bugs]( and helping the bad ones flourish. — Adam Minter  ICYMI Elon [Musk tried to soothe Twitter]( advertisers and employees. Mark Zuckerberg is [$100 billion poorer]( today, with Meta now [worth less]( than Home Depot. Do US poll watchers really need [masks, guns and Kevlar](? Kickers Welcome to the age of [cacio e pepe](. (h/t Mike Nizza) [Blue jeans from the 1800s]( found in an abandoned mine shaft. Gaming might be … [good for kids](’ brains? Why [haunted houses and horror movies]( make us happy. Notes:  Please send cacio e pepe and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022