Trade and Brexit peace sells, but who’s buying?

[Bloomberg]( Today’s Agenda - A China trade [truce is welcome]( but [probably not enough](. - Momentum toward a [Brexit deal is encouraging]( but [also not enough](. - Let’s think about the [impeachment end game](. - Erdogan’s [not going to flood Europe]( with Syrian immigrants. Who Wants Some Fresh-Squeezed Trade Truce? After 18 months of trade warring, the U.S. and China have [agreed]( to try to agree to a truce that might some day lead to a longer-term agreement. If that sounds as exciting as a coupon for one (1) glass of room-temperature champagne, there’s a reason. The trouble, as Robert Burgess notes, is that a minor trade [truce can’t reverse the damage already done]( to the global economy. Markets seem to be pricing themselves accordingly: Stocks absolutely [soared]( on the news today — to prices not seen since, uh, Oct. 1. Still, a truce is better than a not-truce. And for it we can probably thank President Donald Trump’s increasingly desperate political situation, notes Karl Smith. Trump has shunned small deals with China so far, but [now he really needs a win](, any win, and to stop piling fresh grief on the economy. Fastenal Co. earnings today [weren’t nearly as terrible as feared](, suggesting the trade war’s impact on American industry isn’t yet catastrophic, Brooke Sutherland writes. But it is hurting, as is a prolonged General Motors Co. strike [resulting from global forces Trump can’t solve](, Brooke writes in her weekly newsletter (sign up [here](!). Trade peace would help the many U.S. companies doing business with China. Recent tussles between Beijing and the NBA, Apple Inc. and others highlight [how much damage further Trump aggression could do]( to these relationships, writes Nisha Gopalan. Trump has threatened to curb U.S. investment in China, for example. As Shuli Ren and Nisha Gopalan write, China today countered by [dropping some barriers to such investment](. Maybe lasting trade peace will come soon, but China is bracing for the possibility it won’t. Brexit Talks Enter Optimistic ‘Tunneling’ Phase Also exciting markets today was a sudden unexpected breakout of [optimism]( around Brexit negotiations, which are perhaps more ridiculously difficult than China trade talks. Boris Johnson apparently convinced Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar he might have an answer to the thorny problem of the post-Brexit Irish border. And EU and British negotiators have “entered the tunnel,” which is not a bizarre British parliamentary custom but [Brussels-speak]( for secret talks to hammer out deal details. Theresa May spent time in the tunnel too, however, to no avail. And nobody knows [if the Irish border question can be resolved]( in a way that satisfies all parties, writes John Authers. Because the fact is [the U.K. will have to give much more]( than the EU in a border deal, writes Lionel Laurent. And that will make it a hard sell in certain [Farage](-y circles. If Johnson has figured out a solution, then he is a genius, suggests John Authers in a second column. But also [maybe he should have delivered this masterstroke long before]( he got in a big dumb fight with Parliament and delayed everything until just weeks before the deadline? To be fair, that would have been less fun. Time for Some Impeachment End-Game Theory It was another day of rough [impeachment]( news for Trump, including a federal court [ruling]( that his accountants must give his financial records to congressional investigators. (Trump is really [sensitive]( about his financial records.) This comes a day after associates of Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani were [charged]( with campaign-finance violations in connection with efforts to dig up dirt on the Bidens. This scandal could probably just unspool forever like a soap-opera plot, but there’s got be an end game between now and, say, the 2020 election. Jonathan Bernstein [weighs possible impeachment outcomes]( and comes up with the most likely (impeachment but Senate acquittal) and least likely (Senate conviction and removal). There’s also a non-zero chance of something between those extremes, including Republicans pushing Trump to resign. Not all of them have been rushing to his defense, after all. And what they have [offered has been weak sauce](, writes Ramesh Ponnuru. Take Alan Dershowitz. Please! Yesterday he tried to make a legal-sounding case against impeachment, but Ramesh notes it’s full of holes and ignores the constitution. Turkey’s Bombs Hurt Worse Than Its Threats While peace was breaking out in trade and Brexit, the opposite was happening in the Middle East. An Iranian tanker was [struck]( by missiles of possible Saudi origin, leading to a spike in oil prices and a [promise]( of more U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, Turkey continued to [push]( into Kurdish territory in Syria, drawing global criticism — including from the Trump administration, which gave Turkey the green light in the first place but now threatens [sanctions]( if it goes too far. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, meanwhile, has threatened to send Syrian refugees flooding into Europe if Europe keeps criticizing his actions. But for many reasons, [it’s an empty threat](, writes Leonid Bershidsky. They’ll likely just flood in the other direction, raising the level of woe in the region. Telltale Charts The inventors of the lithium-ion battery well deserve their Nobel Prize in Chemistry, writes Nathaniel Bullard. The revolutionary, possibly civilization-saving [technology just keeps getting cheaper]( and more widely used. Instead of pushing savers to spend, as policy makers hoped, [low interest rates may be pushing savers]( to save more, writes Brian Chappatta. Further Reading If we’re going to hold migrant kids in camps, [we should give them flu shots](, for their own and the public’s safety. — Bloomberg’s editorial board Uber Technologies Inc.’s investment in grocery-deliverer Cornershop makes a kind of sense, [until you think about it for a minute](. — Shira Ovide A key [player in Walmart Inc.’s turnaround story]( is leaving. — Sarah Halzack The Fed shows it will stop at nothing to [keep the repo market under control](. — Brian Chappatta Here are [five economists who deserve the Nobel]( Prize. — Noah Smith ICYMI Trump’s impeachment [stonewall has cracks](. WeWork is [trying to borrow $5 billion](. Quintillion’s [promise to wire the Arctic]( was a scam. Kickers NASA aims for a [first SpaceX manned mission]( in early 2020. Lightning [strikes shipping lanes twice as often]( as open ocean. Fifty years since [Caravaggio’s “Nativity” was stolen](, the crime remains unsolved. What happens when you [hack your insomnia](. Note: Please send paintings and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. New to Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( SEND TO A FRIEND [Share with a friend] You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022