Trump doubles down on tariffs

[Bloomberg]( Today’s Agenda - Congress [must stop Trump]( before he tariffs again and [causes a recession](. - The Tiananmen Square massacre [planted the seeds]( of today’s trade war. - Disney’s [threat to boycott Georgia]( is a risk worth taking. - Apparel [retailers are threadbare](. The Trade Warring Will Continue Until Morale Improves What’s better and easier to win than a trade war? How about two trade wars? Before it’s all over, President Donald Trump might have three, four or more trade wars going. For now, he’s got one with China and [threatened]( to open another with Mexico – not because Mexican trade is so unfair, but to make Mexico stop immigrants crossing U.S. borders. Stocks [tumbled]( on this fresh affront to free trade, capping a grim month. At a time of global economic uncertainty caused partly by Trump’s China hostilities, this raises the risk of a recession, notes Bloomberg LP founder Mike Bloomberg. It should also, Mike writes, [be the last straw for Congress](, which is constitutionally in charge of the nation’s trade, a power it has ceded to Trump. He is abusing it and sowing chaos, Mike writes: “Trump’s willingness to gamble with the country’s prosperity, and that of one-time friends and allies, is greater than previously supposed.” A painstakingly generous interpretation could be that Trump is making the [game-theory move of credibly threatening to be irrational](, writes Karl Smith. And this might work, provided everybody else in the game is rational. Then Trump’s stop-me-before-I-tariff-again act could give him everything he wants, from Fed rate cuts to a China surrender, Karl writes. If not, then brace for disaster… ...because Trump risks blowing up trade relations with America’s second-biggest export market, notes David Fickling. Maybe even more damaging, [Trump further erodes America’s credibility]( with its allies and trading partners and makes China look increasingly like a rock of stability in comparison, David writes. U.S. auto makers are particularly at risk and [lost billions]( in collective market value today. Anjani Trivedi and David Fickling explain how the industry’s Mexican supply chain, encompassing basically every part of every car, crosses back and forth across the border many times. Trump tossing a grenade into this intricate web will [hurt American consumers the most](, Anjani and David note. And this is just the latest [disappointment for American manufacturers](, who had high hopes when Trump was elected, notes Brooke Sutherland. They wanted tax cuts and more global business after years of slow sales. They got the tax cuts, all right, but endless tariffs and blown trade deals risk giving those gains back, Brooke writes: “Trump has called his administration a ‘well-oiled machine.’ U.S. manufacturers keep getting caught in it.” Trade Wars: The China Front Meanwhile, the trade war with China keeps heating up. China [threatened]( to blacklist U.S. companies, and tomorrow will slap retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion in American goods. This is all happening a few days before [the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre](, which planted the seeds for today’s American conflict, writes Hal Brands. That tragedy showed China wouldn’t join the democratization spreading globally as the Cold War ended. Instead, China forced a bargain on its people, Hal writes: They would trade their freedom for economic power. That balance is at risk now as China’s growth slows. Also at risk in this new conflict is [the “peace dividend” the stock market]( has enjoyed ever since the Cold War ended, writes Stephen Gandel. Further China Reading: - June could be [an even uglier month for the yuan]( than May. – Shuli Ren - Trump is [wrong to drag the scientific community]( into the Huawei scrap. – Stephen Carter - Europe wants to go its own way on Huawei but will [struggle to craft a united plan](. – Lionel Laurent Hollywood Vs. Georgia Conservatives may soon fire up their stuff-burning pits again, which they have already [used]( on stuff from Nike Inc., Keurig and the NFL, to name a few. Now they’re angry with Walt Disney Co. and Netflix Inc., which have said they may stop doing business in Georgia over that state’s extremely restrictive new abortion law. This is a real economic threat to Georgia, which has become the biggest U.S. filming location, notes Tara Lachapelle. It could also be a problem for Disney and Netflix, which have already drawn [the ire]( of Fox News and risk the spectacle of conservatives burning “Avengers: Endgame” and “Stranger Things” (both filmed in Georgia) paraphernalia. But since Disney’s warning, many other entertainment giants have shared concerns about Georgia’s law. Whatever the risks, [it’s the right thing for Disney and others to do](, particularly given their record of mistreatment of women. Making the entertainment industry much less sexist overall would help too. And Republicans need to ask if [they really want to go to war]( with Disney, Netflix, et al., over abortion laws [most of the country]( opposes, Jonathan Bernstein writes – though conservative media may leave them no choice. Further Culture-War Reading: Trump’s EPA apparently [doesn’t care about the unborn]( as much as Trump says he does. – Faye Flam Telltale Charts Gap Inc. capped off an [ugly quarter for apparel retailers]( across the board, notes Sarah Halzack, even before the trade war hits consumer wallets. Further Reading The 737 Max debacle is [loosening Boeing Co.’s iron grip]( on the aviation industry. – Brooke Sutherland Carl Icahn has a [point about the high price]( Occidental Petroleum Corp. is paying Warren Buffett for deal financing. – Liam Denning An infamously [bearish call on Amazon.com Inc.](, 20 years ago today, has lessons for investors. – Barry Ritholtz Twitter Inc. [showing users more ads]( isn’t a winning formula. – Scott Kominers Trump helped [revive Boris Johnson’s fortunes](, but Johnson may inherit a poisoned chalice. – Therese Raphael Nepal must give Mt. [Everest’s management to private companies](, with a mandate to make it more expensive but safer. – Adam Minter Russia shouldn't have let HBO give the world the [definitive account of Chernobyl](. – Leonid Bershidsky Here’s how companies can avoid [freezing women in their offices]( this summer. – Kara Alaimo ICYMI Flying has [become more dangerous](. The first [MMT textbook has sold out](. Somebody bought a [$400,000 diamond ring]( at Costco. Kickers Scripps National Spelling Bee has [eight champions](. Some stars may [collide without exploding](. (h/t Scott Kominers for the first two kickers) All 74 [HBO shows, ranked](. The “[Deadwood” movie]( is good? [Photos of the week](. Note: Please send diamond rings and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. New to Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( SEND TO A FRIEND [Share with a friend] You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022