Let’s debunk some misconceptions about Russiagate

[Bloomberg]( Today’s Agenda - No, Russiagate [isn’t a media-fueled hoax](. - No, Islamic State is [not dead yet](. - No, Saudi Aramco [doesn’t have it all](. - No, the market's second quarter [probably won’t be as good]( as the first. The Backlash to the Mueller Backlash It’s only been a week since President Donald Trump claimed the Robert Mueller probe was a “complete and total exoneration” of him, and the victory champagne is already going flat. Attorney General William Barr, who first fueled Trump’s exoneration claim, now says he couldn’t possibly summarize Mueller’s entire report and will release it, but with a level of redactions that could range from “a couple of names” to “all of the good stuff.” Democrats in Congress seem likely to [subpoena]( the whole thing, but Eli Lake argues Democrats [might want some of it]( to stay hidden. Cass Sunstein, though, suggests the [bar for redaction should be high](. Trump’s supporters and other media critics have spent the week accusing news outlets of reckless conspiracy-theorizing; some have even claimed this is a more destructive media failure than those leading to the Iraq War. But Tim O’Brien points out: a) the media found [plenty of actual fire behind Russiagate smoke](, as demonstrated by Mueller’s many criminal convictions of Russians and Trump associates, along with many ongoing investigations; b) the critics have been as sloppy as any reporting was; and c) the Iraq War? Really?  Meanwhile, Trump’s claimed triumph over Mueller has [resulted in no noticeable improvement]( in his popularity, Jonathan Bernstein writes; it remains historically low, suggesting trouble for his 2020 re-election bid. Further Russiagate reading: Russia [isn’t the coordinated threat]( Americans think it is. – Leonid Bershidsky The Islamic State Threat Remains Late last month, Islamic State lost control of the last bit of a territory that not long ago was the size of Britain. This is genuinely good news, but nobody should celebrate prematurely, Bloomberg’s editorial board warns. The [terrorist group is even more dangerous now]( that it no longer has to govern a state, giving it more free time to plan attacks, the editors write. The U.S. and its allies need careful diplomacy throughout the Middle East and Africa to make sure it doesn’t find new footholds. The chaos in Iraq and Syria six years ago was a petri dish in which Islamic State’s power could grow. Unfortunately, there are at least [four trouble spots in the world right now]( where conditions are just as ripe for Islamic State’s replacement, writes Bobby Ghosh. It’s not clear the rest of the world is properly addressing these problems. Saudi Aramco’s Uneasy Billions It turns out Justin Timberlake’s [Sean Parker]( was wrong: $1 billion isn’t actually cool. What’s cool is $111 billion. That’s the profit Saudi Aramco made last year, according to documents it filed as part of its effort to borrow money to buy a stake in a different state-owned company. That is, according to Matt Levine’s analysis, [a lot of money](, making you wonder why the Saudi oil giant needs to borrow money at all. Liam Denning points out other numbers in Aramco’s filing may be even more interesting — namely, those that show how cheap and easy it is to pump oil from your own backyard. But that same blessed geography comes with the curse of [ownership by a besieged government](. That same government is the dominant partner in an OPEC that has lately cut oil production to boost prices. But that government is also subject to the whims of Trump, who has lately become angry about oil prices again. Julian Lee lists all the reasons Saudi Arabia will probably [once again do what Trump wants](. Parsing the Markets Solid Chinese manufacturing data helped spark a big [stock-market rally]( on the first trading day of the second quarter. But it’s a little early to say the first quarter’s rally, the best for stocks in a decade, will keep rolling through the second, warns Mohamed El-Erian. The Fed-provided liquidity that helped markets forget recession fears must be replaced at some point by actual fundamental positives, and it’s [not clear we’ll get those](, Mohamed writes. Former New York Fed chief Bill Dudley argues bond markets worry too much about the next recession. He [doubts it’s coming soon]( and suggests it probably won’t be bad anyway. Satyajit Das suggests the bond market’s more troubling signals — [negative interest rates]( —[are here to stay](. They’re a way for economies around the world to pay down mountains of debt, by taking money from savers. Telltale Charts The global auto industry [desperately needs consolidation](, and the prices are right — but nationalism makes cross-border deals less likely, writes David Fickling. Trump’s tax cuts have saved companies $174.5 billion in taxes, which would have [built a whole lot of U.S.-Mexico border wall](, notes Stephen Gandel. Further Reading Private prisons [neither cut costs nor improve outcomes](. We should stop supporting them. – Noah Smith Amazon.com Inc. is weirdly [ceding the “click and collect” market]( to Walmart Inc. and others. – Sarah Halzack PG&E Inc.’s creditors are [racing against the wildfire calendar](. – Liam Denning The EU’s next [Brexit extension]( must be the last.  – Lionel Laurent  A comedian is probably about to become [Ukraine’s next president](. – Leonid Bershidsky It’s telling that Jair Bolsonaro is way more into [celebrating Brazil’s 1964 military coup]( than the military is. – Mac Margolis ICYMI Lyft Inc. fell [below its IPO price](. Burger King introduced a [veggie Whopper](. Tom Brady [tweeted](. Kickers Soon you can wear officially licensed [El Chapo clothing](. Climate change may have driven [Neanderthals to cannibalism](. (h/t for the first two kickers to Scott Kominers) Turns out [mosquitoes hate listening to Skrillex]( as much as humans do. (h/t Mike Smedley) Our obsession with [using numbers to measure performance]( is backfiring. Note: Please send El Chapo clothing and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. New to Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( SEND TO A FRIEND [Share with a friend] You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022