Just how much trouble is Trump in, really?

[Bloomberg]( Today’s Agenda - Investigation fatigue is a [risk for Trump opponents](. - Brexit damage has [already been done](. - China is [its own worst economic enemy](. - Trump’s [tax cuts cost more]( than expected. - PG&E might [not get a bailout]( from California. Trump's Secret Weapon: Probe Fatigue You may not have noticed it, but we recently glimpsed possible proof President Donald Trump’s campaign colluded with Russia during the 2016 election. The fact that you may not have noticed is telling. Last week, or 1,000 years ago in Trump time, lawyers for Paul Manafort, Trump’s former campaign manager, let slip their client has been accused by special counsel Robert Mueller of sharing polling data with a Russian operative during the campaign. The story barely made a peep, even in the Very Fake and Failing Media supposedly out to get Trump. That it [wasn’t a much bigger deal is disturbing](, writes Noah Feldman, portending a future in which Mueller presents evidence of Trump malfeasance, resulting in … nothing, thanks to a combination of public fatigue, Republican intransigence and Democratic cowardice. This would be a disaster for our democracy, Noah writes. Then again, maybe there’s just too much crazy stuff going on for everybody to focus on one. A couple of big Trump-Russia stories did get a lot of attention over the weekend. First, we learned the FBI was so freaked out by Trump in 2017 that it started an investigation into whether he was a Russian agent. Then we learned Trump has been weirdly aggressive about hiding his communications with Vladimir Putin. Trump’s responses to these stories [haven’t exactly been reassuring](, writes Tim O’Brien, who notes Trump has a long year of investigations and revelations ahead of him. And Jonathan Bernstein argues the [talk of removing Trump from office isn’t going away](. That’s because he relentlessly flouts — nay, pours lighter fluid on and tosses lit matches at — the rule of law. From witness-tampering to emoluments-clause violations to flimsy emergency-declaring, Trump’s law-ignoring has become the defining feature of his presidency, and that will keep being a problem for him, Jonathan writes. Further Trump reading: - Attorney General-to-be William Barr’s [views on presidential power aren’t crazy](, but they are wrong. – Noah Feldman - Emergency powers [won’t get Trump his wall](. – Cass Sunstein Brexit Hurts Britain Without Even Happening Theresa May will almost [certainly lose]( a parliamentary vote this week on her Brexit plan, raising the odds Brexit will never happen, which would be the best possible outcome for the U.K. (It also raises the slim possibility the U.K. leaves with no Brexit deal, which would be the worst possible outcome.) But Therese Raphael points out — assisted by several revealing charts by Elaine He — that a lot of [economic damage has already been done]( in the two years since the U.K. first voted to leave the EU. Take business investment, for example: Further Brexit reading: [Andy Murray has exemplified Brexit](-era Britain, for better and now for worse. – Therese Raphael China Is Its Own Worst Enemy Trump and the China hawks in his administration may want to keep China from supplanting the U.S. atop the global economy, hence the whole trade-war thing. But China is doing much of the heavy lifting against itself: By favoring state-owned companies over private ones, Xi Jinping is [keeping China stuck in the middle-income trap](, writes David Fickling. Private companies are more profitable and would attract more investment from Chinese savers, which could help address the capital imbalance that has the U.S. fuming. And Xi’s favoritism toward state-run enterprises makes [China’s private companies strange bedfellows]( with the U.S. in the fight to open up China’s economy, writes Andrew Browne. Though Xi’s strategy seems driven by domestic political concerns, there’s still hope he’ll recognize he has a problem with private enterprise and that doing more for them will help China’s flagging economy. Further China reading: - The U.S.-China rivalry isn’t the same as the U.S.-USSR rivalry, but [some Cold War lessons]( apply. – Hal Brands - Poland’s case against Huawei suggests China’s telecom-equipment giant will [keep looking to emerging markets]( for business. – Tim Culpan and Alex Webb - Viacom Inc. retreating from China [isn’t about the trade war]( or some antipathy to SpongeBob SquarePants, but about the cold reality of the Chinese TV market. – David Fickling Tax-Cut Accounting The early days of 2019 are bringing a lot of hard numbers on the effect in 2018 of the GOP tax cuts of 2017. Stephen Gandel does some crunching and finds the cuts benefited corporate bottom lines more than initially expected — but [also cost the Treasury more](: And though lower rates padded corporate profits, they don’t seem to have helped the economy much, Stephen notes. Even the tax-cut-inspired Trump bump in stocks is being erased by other Trump policies, from trade wars to government shutdowns. Read the [whole thing](. Further tax reading: - Debating a [70 percent top marginal tax rate](. – Tyler Cowen, Karl W. Smith, Noah Smith and Michael R. Strain - The European Commission could soon [pull the rug out from under multinationals]( that rely on generous taxing schemes in small European states. – Leonid Bershidsky California (Bailout) Dreamin’ California utility PG&E Corp. is juuust about to file for bankruptcy protection, staggering under the possible $30 billion in liabilities the California wildfires left behind. Liam Denning notes PG&E has enough cash to not have to file right away, but it’s taking some drastic steps — including sending its CEO and other execs packing — to try to [win sympathy for a bailout from the state](. California [doesn’t look]( like it’s biting, though.  Further climate-change reading: - Who pays for the rising risk of wildfires? [Pretty much everybody](. – Matt Levine - The proliferation of electric vehicles is encouraging, but [EVs alone won't fight climate change](. – Meghan O’Sullivan Telltale Charts Saudi Arabia has a lot of easy-to-reach oil sitting in the ground and must get it all out before people don’t want it anymore. For some reason, it [doesn’t seem to have figured this out]( yet, writes Julian Lee. If it did, then it could run higher-cost producers out of business. Further Reading Germany’s economy is slowing, making this a great time to use some of its [fiscal breathing room for stimulus](, lightening the ECB’s burden. – Bloomberg editorial board With user growth slowing, Facebook Inc. must offer more value to advertisers, by more efficiently mining user data. But Germany might [soon cause big problems for that model](. – Alex Webb Tribune Publishing Co. (née Tronc) rejected Gannett Co.’s aggressive takeover bid, and now [Gannett is being aggressively wooed]( by MNG Enterprises Inc. (aka Digital First). Whatever happens, expect job cuts. – Brooke Sutherland  Citigroup Inc.’s disappointing results [say more about Citi]( than about the state of banking generally. – Elisa Martinuzzi Social media isn’t the revolutionary force it seemed in the Arab Spring. But it’s useful in another way — calling attention to the [plight of women fleeing abuse](, as in the case of Rahaf Mohammed Al-Qunun. – Bobby Ghosh Mike Pompeo’s Cairo speech was ugly, small-minded and cynical, but [at least Arabs know where Trump]( stands. – Bobby Ghosh The Fed and markets have very [different views on interest rates](. There are many reasons for this, each with different investment implications. – Mohamed El-Erian ICYMI Trump’s [getting the blame]( for the record shutdown, which is affecting [airport security lines](. The next [American car recession]( has begun. Kickers Canadian air traffic controllers [sent pizza to American counterparts]( working without pay. Cathay Pacific keeps accidentally selling [wildly expensive first-class tickets]( at economy rates. “Terminator 2” is [another step closer]( to becoming reality. (h/t Scott Duke Kominers for the first three kickers) Toto’s “Africa” is [playing on an eternal loop]( down in Africa. (h/t Mike Smedley) [Forgetfulness can help]( your brain work better. [Microbes could be the key]( to sending people to Mars. [Chinese science fiction]( is having a moment. Note: Please send pizza, suggestions and kicker ideas to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. New to Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( SEND TO A FRIEND [Share with a friend] You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022