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What will and won't change after the midterms

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Wed, Nov 7, 2018 09:48 PM

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Today’s Agenda - The Dems can and his for their midterm victory. - Now Dems just have to fig

[Bloomberg]( Today’s Agenda - The Dems can [thank Trump]( and his [narcissism]( for their midterm victory. - Now Dems just have to figure out [how to use]( their [newfound power](. - They also need to start thinking about [doing it all again](, but better, in 2020. - Jeff Sessions managed to [hurt the Justice Department’s standing]( while not helping himself with Trump. - Facebook needs to [snap out of its nostalgia]( about 2012. - Rail can save lives in [polluted megacities](. The Midterms: Plus ça Change Last night’s midterm elections will bring dramatic change — and some radical sameness. First, for their conquest of the House of Representatives, [Democrats should thank President Donald Trump](, writes Jonathan Bernstein. His endless crises and refusal to expand his base made him historically unpopular, despite a strong economy. This gave Dems a wave-like election in the House and decent results elsewhere. The question now is: Will Trump pivot, change his tone and work with Democrats? He sounded somewhat conciliatory at a news conference today. But he also [threatened war]( on Dems who dare to investigate him. This bluster not only suggests the mythical Trump pivot isn’t happening, but also, far more seriously, it’s a [direct assault on our democratic norms](, writes Noah Feldman. One reason not to hold your breath for a Trump pivot is [his unquenchable narcissism](, as described by Tim O’Brien. He hurt the GOP’s chances by making the midterms about himself instead of, say, a healthy economy, because everything must be about him at all times. And he will almost certainly take an opposition-run House performing its oversight duty as a personal attack. We know how he responds to that. Of course, the Dems should be careful [not to overplay their hand](, warns Al Hunt — and not because of any Trump threat, but because of the potential political blowback. But there are more than enough legitimate topics for sober investigation to keep House Dems busy for two years. And though the odds of Dems passing progressive legislation are nonexistent, they can at least take votes — on health care, immigration, infrastructure, ethics and more — that [put the GOP on the spot](, Al Hunt writes in a second column. Showing they can govern responsibly will help Dems’ case for getting even more responsibility in 2020, write Bloomberg’s editors. More critically, this will restore [desperately needed checks and balances]( to the democracy. And who knows? Maybe they can even win some Republican support for shared priorities (such as infrastructure or immigration) along the way. But talk of bipartisanship may be wishful thinking; last night’s results show [America is as divided as ever]( along geographic and other fault lines, writes Ramesh Ponnuru. The more things change, the more they stay the same — at least until 2020. More midterms reading: - The Dems may now have just enough power to [rein in Trump’s worst foreign-policy]( impacts. – Hal Brands - Dems have permanently [shifted the health-care debate]( and reality in their direction. – Max Nisen - Environmentalists had a [rough night last night](, but the ultimate result is even more polarization on climate. – Liam Denning - Here are [four agenda items the new Congress]( should attack right away. – Barry Ritholtz - Europeans now realize [Trump’s 2016 victory was no fluke](. – Leonid Bershidsky Never Too Soon to Talk About 2020 Though they will lose some seats in the Senate, Democrats actually had a far less terrible night there than the map suggested going into the election. Still, the lost ground will make it even harder for Dems to put together a governing coalition in 2020, even if they win the presidency, writes Conor Sen. Losses in big races in traditional swing states — Florida, Iowa, Missouri and Ohio — also suggest the Electoral College math could be hard again. Conor suggests the Dems’ best path to taking back the Senate and the presidency [could run through the Sun Belt]( of Southern and Western states. Though it still seems pretty far out of reach, Texas could be one such state. If it turns blue or purple, then [Dems may never complain again]( about the Electoral College, writes Jonathan Bernstein. So Long to Sessions Trump didn’t even wait 24 hours after the midterms to [oust Attorney General Jeff Sessions](, immediately raising questions about the future of the Robert Mueller investigation. Noah Feldman writes that Sessions managed a neat trick: He [damaged the credibility of the Justice Department]( in his efforts to please Trump, but that wasn’t nearly enough to save his job because there were still some very distant lines he wouldn’t cross. How Facebook Is Like Uncle Rico Facebook Inc. has a large and growing list of serious problems, including stagnant user growth and data-privacy and abuse controversies. But it seems to think it’s got it all under control, thanks to that time, back in 2012, when it managed to (belatedly) adjust to users switching to phones from desktops. This bit of nostalgia-clinging, Shira Ovide writes, is [unconvincing and a little pathetic](, kind of like Napoleon Dynamite’s Uncle Rico bragging about how he could [throw a pigskin a quarter-mile]( back in ’82. What happened in 2012 has no bearing on whether Facebook can handle the challenges of 2018 and beyond — [an increasingly open question](, Shira writes. Megacities Need More Rail Some of the world’s most polluted megacities will get even bigger in the decades to come. They will become even more dangerously polluted if all of those people must travel by road. The only way to avoid public-health crises in these cities will be to [build up electrified rail networks](, write David Fickling and Elaine He. Telltale Charts The [“MAGA” stock ETF hasn’t exactly been great]( — one of many Trump-inspired market bets gone wrong, writes Stephen Gandel. China is suffering [another IPO drought]( for good reason, writes Shuli Ren. Train Reading If the midterms were [relatively free from Russian hacking](, then that may be thanks to an aggressive — and risky — new U.S. deterrence campaign. – Eli Lake [Big tech companies are throttling startups]( and American innovation along with it. They must be stopped. – Noah Smith Parting is so much sweeter with a [$99 million exit package](. – Lionel Laurent Want to see how heated British politics have become? Consider the case of [the Bad Boy of Brexit](. – Therese Raphael ICYMI The [SALT cap burned]( blue-state Republicans. Rudy Giuliani [really likes cigars](, apparently. Not even [lobsters can escape]( Trump’s trade war. Kickers The spotlight of attention may be [more like a strobe](. A ramp may have been the key to [building Egypt’s Great Pyramid](. Researchers can “see” through walls [using just Wi-Fi]( and a smartphone. China can apparently [ID people based on walk]( alone. We should [teach media literacy]( in elementary school. Mary Shelley’s “Frankenstein” is [about art](, not science. The “Breaking Bad” sequel movie will [be about Jesse Pinkman](. From Weiner to Moss: [“Mad Men” cast post-show careers](, ranked. Note: Please send lobsters, suggestions and kicker ideas to Mark Gongloff at markgongloff@gmail.com. New to Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( SEND TO A FRIEND [Share with a friend] You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022

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