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Todayâs Agenda
- America could be on the verge of [a new Cold War with China](.
- Donât sleep on [Turkey contagion](.
- Trump and Omarosa are [kindred spirits](.
- Trumpâs [undermining Americaâs Russia policy](.
- Elon Musk didnât have that funding, turns out. And he just took a [big gamble with Teslaâs future](.
- Wells Fargo [isnât all fixed yet](.
Cold War II
President Donald Trumpâs trade war with China might just be a temporary dust-up, ending when China throws him a bone that lets him declare victory and us get back to business as usual.
Or this could be the opening stages of [a new Cold War between the U.S. and China](, which will continue no matter whoâs in the White House, suggests Conor Sen. One hint: China has an initiative called âMade in China 2025,â aiming to become the worldâs dominant economy by the time President Ivanka Trumpâs first term begins. This rivalry could realign American politics just as the Cold War with the Soviet Union did, Conor writes.
That one ended badly for the Soviets. And David Fickling suggests China is giving off a whiff of late-Soviet desperation with its other big initiative, the âBelt and Roadâ plan to spend about $1.5 trillion in infrastructure beyond its borders. It [smacks of the Soviet Unionâs Siberian buildup]( â a money pit that ultimately contributed to the USSRâs collapse, David writes.
As fraught as their relationship has been, both China and the U.S. have benefited from trading with each other and from Chinaâs economic rise. No matter who âwinsâ this contest, [both countries will lose a lot]( from their breakup, warns Michael Schuman.
Turkey Melt
The U.S. stock market today seemed to decide Turkeyâs big sloppy meltdown was not such a big sloppy deal. But the rideâs not over, warns Mohamed El-Erian in a helpful [survey of what led to Turkeyâs crisis and the risks]( ahead: âInvestors should brace for more volatility for the Turkish lira and bond spreads, as well as more technical contagion for other emerging markets.â
For the time being, despite the recent troubles of Turkey and other emerging markets, most [Asian currencies are holding their own](, notes Shuli Ren. The difference seems to be that they, unlike Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, accept the economic reality that they must raise interest rates to keep up with the rest of the world.
Given how far Erdogan has let the lira go â and what with his declaring economic war on the rest of the world â it will take much [more than one or two rate hikes to save Turkey]( now, warns Marcus Ashworth. The big sloppy mess will continue.
Trump and Omarosa Were Made For Each Other
If you could take a time machine back to the year 2004, when Trumpâs reality show âThe Apprenticeâ was first on the air and scoring big ratings, you could have a lot of fun telling people about the year 2018: That showâs heel, Omarosa Manigualt Newman, is publicly feuding with Trump, who is the President of the United States. Good luck explaining what Twitter is. Back then, Trump âused to talk a lot about Omarosaâ to Tim OâBrien, who was interviewing him for a book. Tim writes that Omarosa was a perfect fit for both reality TV and Trumpâs orbit: â[She is just as craven and self-absorbed as he is](, and betrayal by a kindred spirit has never sat well with him.âÂ
Bonus What-Is-Trump-Thinking Reading: A year after Charlottesville, Trump is still [setting a terrible example on race](, leaving the country divided and racists feeling more free to be publicly racist. â Tim OâBrien
When It Comes to Russia, Trump Isnât Helping
Almost from the start of Trumpâs presidency, thereâs been a big gap between his praise of Vladimir Putin and the U.S. governmentâs aggressive steps to hold Russia accountable for stuff like invading countries and poisoning spies. Itâs been easy to dismiss Trumpâs words as just noise and believe the governmentâs actions are more meaningful. But Trumpâs mixed signals matter too: Sort of like bad parenting, they undermine any punishment and make it [more likely Russia will keep doing bad stuff](, write Bloombergâs editors.Â
Bonus Russia-Adjacent Reading: Donât cry for [Peter Strzok](, cry for the FBIâs independence. â Noah Feldman
Elon Muskâs Saudi Gamble
When Elon Musk tweeted he had âfunding securedâ to take Tesla Inc. private, he actually meant he had a super-warm feeling after talking to Saudi Arabiaâs sovereign wealth fund about it, Musk wrote in a blog post today. This [suggests no âfundingâ has actually been âsecured,â]( in the way you or I or securities lawyers typically think about it, notes Matt Levine â who also points out Muskâs whole plan to go private, but with the same group of investors, makes no sense. Incidentally, Muskâs blog posts means he has given oil giant Saudi Arabia the power to [crush his electric-car companyâs stock](, if it were so inclined, writes Liam Denning.
For the super-contrarian ([meaning bullish]() view on Tesla, read Matt Winkler.
What Now, Wells Fargo?
Hereâs more proof Wells Fargo & Co. still hasnât cleaned up its culture: [It is under investigation]( for misusing federal tax credits for low-income housing projects, according to this scoop by Stephen Gandel: âBased on the deals that have been examined so far, according to a person close to the investigation, Wells Fargoâs actions may have defrauded hundreds of millions of dollars from the federal tax program. And ⦠a number of the people [who worked] on these deals are still working at Wells Fargo.â Click [here to read the whole thing](.
Chart Attack
The oil market needs to get its head around the fact that sanctions are going to take a [huge bite out of Iranian oil production](, warns Julian Lee.
The U.S. has turned into a [major oil-producing power again](, which changes how we should think about oil prices, writes Justin Fox.
Quick Hits
None of the big boys of tech â cough, Mark Zuckerberg and Jack Dorsey, cough â have [any idea how to tame the beast]( they have created. â Cathy OâNeilÂ
A German drugmaker is trying to stop a U.S. execution using one of its drugs because it will be bad for its reputation. As cynical as that sounds, [death-penalty opponents should welcome it](. â Noah Feldman
Our auto-emissions standards [may not be realistic](. â Anjani Trivedi
Americans own less stuff, which [makes us less loyal to capitalism](. â Tyler Cowen
Stagnant [wage-growth numbers donât tell the whole story]( of Americaâs economy. â Ramesh Ponnuru
ICYMI
Silicon Valley unicorn founders have about [$60 billion in paper money](. Chris Collins [isnât running for reelection]( after all. The FBI [fired Peter Strzok](.Â
Kickers
The underground lake on Mars could be home to [some of our (very distant) cousins]( â or something much weirder. â Faye Flam
Meet the âJapan pig,â a recently discovered seahorse [as big as a grain of rice](.
People these days will do [pretty much anything with goats](.
Thereâs [an upside to feeling blue](.
Every [Spike Lee film, ranked](.
Note: Please send Japan pigs, suggestions and kicker ideas to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.
***
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