Don’t come on in, the water’s not fine

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a chemical cocktail of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. On Sundays, we look at the major themes of the week pa [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a chemical cocktail of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. On Sundays, we look at the major themes of the week past and how they will define the week ahead. Sign up for the daily newsletter [here](. [Melt!]( OK, here’s the deal: I am going to Fiji this week and you are (probably) not. Tough luck. The former British colony, an archipelago of some 300 Pacific islands, is known to scuba divers as the “Soft Coral Capital of the World.” That may not seem like much of a tourism slogan to you, but to those of us who know our [plexauridae]( from our [dendronephthya]( from our [chironephthya](, it’s pretty thrilling. I’m less excited to meet the [tiger sharks](; if somebody else is writing this newsletter in July, you can assume they were excited to meet me.[1](#footnote-1) It’s a big ocean, but a small planet. The same weather patterns that are about to make Americans’ summer scorching already hit south-of-the-equator Fijian waters, which reached the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s [Alert Level 2]( (worst possible) for coral bleaching in March and April. If your hobby is, say, tennis, you may worry about tendonitis putting a crimp in your game; if it’s scuba diving, you’re facing extinction. That would also be a bummer for the one billion people who depend on reef ecosystems for their precious lives. Also worried: the people who depend on tourist dollars for their precious livelihoods. “Even those who prefer not to think too deeply about climate change notice when their familiar summer holiday morphs into an ordeal akin to being slow roasted, Niall Ferguson [wrote]( a year ago. “Those who own the capital stock — the hotels, the houses, the boats — naturally cling to the hope that this summer is an aberration and next year will return to normal. But they have been clinging to that hope for quite a few years now. The horrible question keeps suggesting itself: What if this is the new normal?” A year later, Andrea Felsted has an answer, but it’s not going to give hoteliers much hope. “After three years of rushing to book trips in the wake of pandemic-era restrictions, sharply higher fares, protests against tourism, fatigue from endless hours spent in airports and incomes squeezed by inflation are all taking their toll,” Andrea [writes](. “After wildfires in Greece last year, climate concerns are at the forefront of consumers’ minds. Yet this is spurring some unusual behaviors, such as some European customers booking long-haul flights to destinations such as Mauritius, where summer temperatures are more predictable.” Andrea says we are about to get the first glimpse of what a more settled post-pandemic travel market looks like. A lot like this, probably: Source: Consumer Edge Lara Williams feels we have only ourselves to blame: “Any conversation about tourism and climate change is complicated by the fact that the industry itself [is a driver of greenhouse gases](. How do we continue to support something that brings people joy and provides many with economic lifelines while slashing carbon emissions?” Of course, weather patterns impact tourism, too — and here we find a sibling rivalry. “The good news is that El Niño is rapidly giving way to his cooler sister, La Niña. The bad news is that she won’t necessarily be any kinder to humanity” [says]( Mark Gongloff. “It was bad enough during the centuries when El Niño and La Niña simply batted the global climate back and forth like a badminton birdie. Once humans got involved in manipulating the climate, they proved to be even more powerful and destructive, just on a longer time scale. The upside is that humans also have the power to change their impact, by transitioning away from the fossil fuels that are making the planet hotter. In the meantime, we must keep adapting to weather that keeps growing more chaotic no matter which side of the net the birdie is on.” While I will be lapping up the Fiji water, folks in Mexico City tremble every time the turn on the tap. “Due to a combination of persistent drought, higher temperatures and antiquated infrastructure, the perennial water scarcity problems of Mexico’s capital are becoming dangerously worse,” Juan Pablo Spinetto writes. “Its emerging climate conditions are pushing authorities toward emergency measures such as rationing and [distributing water]( by truck to fill up tanks across different neighborhoods.” Elsewhere in water shortages, we have … the UK? While Mexico’s situation is a tragedy, this — like so many British things — is a farce: “After months of deluge it seems incomprehensible that the UK could face water shortages in the event of a hot and dry spring and summer,” [reports]( the Guardian. “Drier countries must look on in disbelief as this rainy isle lets the ever more precious resource flow down rivers and out of the country, leading to hosepipe bans and potentially more dire consequences in the summer.” What’s a broiling Brit to do? Niall, ever the dour Scotsman, thinks the hills will be alive with the sound of money: “The early adopters of the mountain vacation are in for a shock when the masses start showing up. The same goes for the hardy souls who have maintained the Victorian tradition of going to Scotland for the summer (which is like opting out of summer altogether). They, too, may soon find their favorite Highland beauty spots overrun by sunburnt refugees from Malaga. Heat exhaustion can kill you. No one ever died of drizzle.” Nope, but it looks like the Conservatives are about to [die of a landslide](. More on that below. Bonus [City Too HotÂ](Reading: - Exxon and Climate Activists Should [Make Their Peace]( — The Editors - [Biden Is Wrong](: We Still Don’t Have Enough Solar — David Fickling - Sheinbaum’s [Huge Mandate]( in Mexico Comes with a Dilemma — Juan Pablo Spinetto [What’s the World Got in Store](? - Apple WWCD, June 10: Apple Doesn't [Need to Rush]( AI on the iPhone — Dave Lee - Fed rate decision, June 12: ECB Cut Interest Rates, But the [Fed Is Still in Charge]( — Mohamed A. El-Erian - US CPI, June 12: Inflation [Feels Bad]( No Matter How You Define It — Claudia Sahm [Maggie’s Farm]( “We were told our campaign wasn’t sufficiently slick,” Margaret Thatcher once [quipped](, “we regard that as a compliment.” Could Rishi Sunak take a similar view of his Conservatives’ desultory attempt to hang on to power? In that spirit, the opinion team at Bloomberg’s [London Mithraeum]( have put together a sort of [advance obituary]( for 14 years of Tory rule. Let’s start with the (kinda) positive. “Education reform is one area the Conservative Party has [made a difference]( in the past 14 years,” [writes]( Chris Bryant. “Focusing on literacy and numeracy, emphasizing academic rigor and embracing best practices — whether from academic strongholds in Asia or the previous Labour government — have underpinned this success.” But literacy and numeracy seem to have stopped at the water’s edge. “Judged by its own missed targets, the Conservative record on immigration over the past 14 years is one of failure,” Matthew Brooker [writes](. The UK environment is another good-news-is-bad story. “Tracking progress on climate action can feel seductively simple: Are emissions coming down? If yes, good! If not, there’s a problem,” Lara Williams [writes](. “On this measure, the Conservatives have overseen 14 years of climate success … But a closer look shows the main driver of decline is on a ski slope that’s rapidly running out of room. Split up UK emissions data by sector and the pattern is clear: The vast majority of reductions have been made in the power sector. Reductions in other sectors — particularly in buildings, transport and industry — have to occur with more urgency,” she adds. Source: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero “Chemical cocktail” is probably not a phrase anybody wants for their epitaph — but Lara (she had a busy week) [says]( it’s an accurate description of “every single stretch of river” in England. “Toxic” is another one to avoid at the eulogy, especially in terms of protecting the realm, but Mark Champion [feels]( that “defense may be the most toxic of the many poison chalices Rishi Sunak’s government leaves to a successor next month.” Sure, the Tories have less than a month to pull off the comeback of the century, but that’s a lot to expect from an [omnishambles](. Read more [here](. Notes: Please send shark repellant and feedback to Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net. [1] I'll assume that if I get eaten, my wife will be somewhat put out. If my son gets eaten, I may as well never come home. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. [Unsubscribe]( [Bloomberg.com]( [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( [Ad Choices](