India is back to the old normal. Get used to it.

Plus: Is Shein a London Shoo-in? [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a subtle sledgehammer of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Must-Reads - Russia’s gain is [China’s pain](. - English Football’s financial [armageddon](. - The Fed can wait. [Let’s cut rates](. - The golden age of [sewage](. - Lies, damned lies and [LNG](. - Deals worth [the paper]( they’re written on? A Higher-Risk India Isn’t a Bad Thing Investors tend to be risk-averse, entrusting their money to stable instruments and enterprises. India, under the autocratic prime minister Narendra Modi, has benefited from that proclivity for predictability. For the last decade, his ruling Bharatiya Janata party has turned his smiling but obdurate mien into a cult of personality — the strongman who promises prosperity as long as you go along with his policies and politics. That was good for foreign finance and local plutocrats. But the significant portions of India’s populace left behind begged to differ — and they chastised Modi at the polls, denying him not just the 400 seat majority he predicted for the BJP but a simple majority at that. He and his party are now trying to cement a coalition government. Overseas investors were rattled: Modi’s rise had ended a quarter-century of often volatile ruling alliances in New Delhi that, at one point, threatened to reduce the country’s credit rating to junk. India’s risk premium, which was a factor in its dramatic rise in the esteem of global investors, seemed to be threatened by the return of petty but petrifying politics. My colleague Andy Mukherjee [says not to worry](. In the last few months, he’d presciently prophesied that Modi’s pre-election [boasts]( were [based]( mostly on [hubris]( and [hype](. Now, he says a humbled BJP — prodded by parties it can no longer afford to alienate — might move to improve the lives of the unwashed, not just the elite. “Investors would gain nothing by being too antagonistic to coalition politics,” he says. “After all, if voters in the world’s largest democracy want the needle of economic distribution to move a little away from capital and toward labor, then so be it. An increase in the risk premium is acceptable if the end result is more widespread prosperity.” See what else Andy has to say [here](. And how will Modi himself respond to this popular reprimand? That’s where we get to the drama — or melodrama, as Indian politics can well become. “I wonder what enforced humility will do to his political appeal, much of which had been based on him being a consistent winner,” [says]( Mihir Sharma. “India should see a different prime minister now — one who listens more and accepts his limits. That’s admittedly hard to picture: Throughout his political career, Modi has never had to compromise in this manner.” Shein Shouldn’t Be a London Shoo-In The UK stock market has been gripped by anxiety over the gravitational pull of New York’s stock exchanges. And so, there is much excitement over the possibility that the Singapore-based online retailer Shein might choose to list in London. Andrea Felsted says that anticipation is misplaced. “The UK might need a blockbuster IPO, but investors should be cautious,” [she says](. “Shein is headquartered in Singapore, but the ultimate controlling party is Elite Depot Ltd., a Cayman Islands registered entity.” And there’s more to be vigilant about. “What exactly are fund managers being asked to buy a share in? An overseas e-commerce platform that reacts to the looks on social media in real-time and is supplied by a network of 5,000 Chinese factories, none of which it owns.” Manufacturing is expanding to Brazil, Mexico and Turkey. But, she says, “the bulk of suppliers remains in China.” The China investment taint may be unfair, but it isn’t groundless. The lesson of Chinese companies listing in the US is still fresh. In the middle of 2023, Shuli Ren [wrote]( about the information black box that prevents foreign investors from examining numbers and corporate linkages in the mainland. She said, “As recently as mid-2022, those abroad could still use the mainland’s corporate registration databases, such as Tianyancha or Qichacha, to find out the true beneficiaries of a firm’s shareholdings. We no longer can ...” Telltale Charts Special Edition: [14 Years of Conservative Rule]( in the UK “For all the bombastic talk of ‘Global Britain’ since Conservative rule was restored 14 years ago, the UK’s armed forces are in worse shape now … while facing a much more dangerous security environment. In fact, defense may be the most toxic of the many poison chalices Rishi Sunak’s government leaves to a successor next month, in the very likely event that he loses.” — Marc Champion in “[‘Global Britain’ Is Too Big for the UK’s Defense Britches](.” Source: UK Ministry of Defence response to parliamentary question in January 2024 “For a view of the Conservative Party’s recent environmental legacy, I suggest you look at the UK’s waterways. What flows through them isn’t just H2O and fish, but what’s been described as a ‘chemical cocktail’ of sewage, agricultural waste and plastic. No single stretch of river in England or Northern Ireland is in good overall health, according to environmental charity The Rivers Trust.” — Lara Williams in “[Tories Handed England an Awful Sewage Problem](.”  Source: The Environment Agency “Britain takes a third of all the money flowing from venture capital investors into Europe and has done so almost consistently for the last 14 years. … But tech startups here have grappled with a chronic inability to scale, and the problem hasn’t improved under the Tories. British startups virtually matched the California Bay Area in getting early-stage funding last year, but they raised just 22% of what their Silicon Valley peers did when seeking $100 million or more.” Parmy Olson in “[British Startups Just Can't Seem to Scale](.” Source: Dealroom.io Further Reading Delulu at [Lululemon](? — Andrea Felsted CDMX [H20]( IRL . — Juan Pablo Spinetto AI’s [dead-end jobs](. — Parmy Olson Ain’t nuff [sunshine](. — David Fickling Europe’s stuck in a [lost decade](. — Lionel Laurent [UK stocks]( are stuck. — Chris Hughes Walk of the Town: Talk of the Town Edition When some friends learn that I’ve called this section Walk of the Town, they roll their eyes at the pun on the New Yorker magazine’s “Talk of the Town” section. Well, I’ve decided to lean into it. This week, I walked to the 124-year-old building near London’s Leicester Square that used to be the Talk of the Town theater-nightclub from 1958 to 1982. It featured everyone from Judy Garland, Ella Fitzgerald and Dionne Warwick to the Carpenters, the Jackson 5 and the Supremes to Tom Jones, Engelbert Humperdinck and Cliff Richard. The toast of the town at the Talk of the Town. Before that, it used to be the London Hippodrome, a space for theatrical events and spectacles where Charlie Chaplin made his debut as a child actor. Oh, and Julie Andrews became a star there. The Talk Of The Town nightclub in 1973. Photographer: Evening Standard/Hulton Archive The Talk of the Town is once again called the London Hippodrome. But, apart from the Magic Mike male strip show upstairs, it’s not a theater but a rather weary gambling casino. That transformation took place roughly around the time the Tories took over. After a three-year renovation, Boris Johnson — then mayor of London — opened the gaming house to the public in 2012.  I’m not sure how to turn that into a metaphor for fin-de-Tory Britain, but you can check out [our report card](on 14 years of Conservative Party rule for what my colleagues think of the epoch ahead of the July 4 election. Downstairs at the Hippodrome: Archive and Myth Photograph by Howard Chua-Eoan Still, if you can figure your way through the basement maze (look for the Chinese restaurant), you’ll find a brilliant cocktail bar called Archive and Myth, ministered by a master mixer from Australia. I went to a preview and sampled a couple of concoctions, including some made with absinthe — which makes the heart grow fonder. That’s more than can be said for the last five prime ministers. Drawdown Thanks for sticking with me. Now, fly and be free! ”I said I wanted to preside over a gilded age, not a gilded cage.” Illustration by Howard Chua-Eoan/Bloomberg Notes: Please send escape claws and feedback to Howard Chua-Eoan at hchuaeoan@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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