Indian voters bring pollsters to tears

Think you had a bad day at work? At least you're not this guy. [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, the arch-nemesis of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - [Modi’s]( shrinking [voting bloc](. - [Nigel Farage’s]( milkshake [shock](. - China shuts down [Tiananmen talk](. - [Private equity]( failed the doc. A Smiiidge Off Remember yesterday when we were talking about India’s election? I wrote: “Nearly every exit poll says Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set for a [landslide victory](, but Andy Mukherjee [believes]( some caution is warranted” because past surveys have proved spectacularly wrong. Haha, well, [this clip]( of Axis My India CEO Pradeep Gupta crying on live television after his exit poll prediction went sideways sums up just how [correct]( Andy was. “In life you can’t get it all right,” the anchor tells the pollster mid-sniffle, while another panelist pats his back and hands him a box of tissues: Source: YouTube Now that most of the votes are in, we know that the Bharatiya Janata Party falls short of an outright majority in India’s 543-member parliament. For the first time in Modi’s 10-year rule, the prime minister will have to play nice with some smaller parties to hold onto power. How did we get here? For one, “India is unpredictable,” Mihir Sharma [writes](. “This is an incontrovertible fact that Indians themselves seem to have forgotten over the past decade.” Trouble is, all those incorrect polls caused [a lot of cash]( to change hands. Andy says “investors had pumped money into the country’s assets” because they were “expecting a landslide win for Modi.” After the results started to roll in, stocks and the rupee posted significant losses. This chart from John Authers [shows]( as much: But markets don’t reflect the will of the people. Ballots do! Voters [in the south]( have long been fed up with Modi, but even those living in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh (which is more populous than Brazil and poorer than sub-Saharan Africa) [surprised]( by going against the prime minister. Oh what a difference five years makes: “By denying a majority to the BJP, voters have clearly signaled that that Modi’s magic has worn off,” Andy explains. If that’s the case, who’s next? Political scientist Christophe Jaffrelot [says]( there’s a reason we’re not tossing around names for potential replacements: “People like Modi have no successor, and it’s very difficult to succeed a man like Modi, especially when you don’t have any dynasty at the end,” he said in a recent interview. But, hey — never say never. I’m sure some BJP protégé could pop up down the road. After all, if we learned anything this week, it’s that you shouldn’t be too attached to your predictions. Bonus India Election Analysis: Apart from not listening to the voters, [what else went wrong]( for Modi’s BJP? — Ruth Pollard, Nisid Hajari and Mihir Sharma A Milkshake, [Duck](! Elsewhere in election shake-ups, we have Brexit architect and Trump ally Nigel Farage getting a [McDonald’s milkshake]( hurled at him. If anything, this image should restore your faith that politics can have sweet moments after all: An impressive arc Photographer: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty Images I know you’re just dying to see the aftermath, so I won’t deny you: Splash Mountain Photographer: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty Images Okay, okay. A few things here: My colleague Mike Nizza rightly pointed out that the milkshake looks a little … thin? What are they doing over there? TOO MUCH MILK! Secondly, how are they gonna dry clean that suit? I wouldn’t know where to begin. Thirdly, why are we [paying attention]( to Nigel Farage? That question is, amazingly, the easiest one to answer. He is running in the UK election! Wait, what? Yeah, he [announced]( it yesterday. “Farage is Sunak’s nightmare made flesh,” Adrian Wooldridge [writes]( (free read), and “he is taking over the leadership of the Reform UK party and standing as MP for the fading seaside town of Clacton.” The right-wing media is obsessed with his “everyman” machismo, even though his whole “pints and cigs with the lads” vibe is just an act — he has a private school resume and a chauffeur-driven car. On the campaign trail, Adrian says you can expect to see him “play right-wing theme tunes about immigration and cultural decline far more skillfully than Sunak could ever hope to.” As if his new arch-nemesis weren’t enough of a headache, Andrea Felsted [says]( Sunak also needs to address the economy. “One of the Tories’ biggest achievements has been bringing unemployment down,” she writes, “yet people still feel worse off.” It’s a sentiment that Andrea says is not unique to the UK. In the European Union, the economy will also be a top concern during parliamentary elections. “The risk of another [lost decade]( is high if the EU spends the next few years bickering internally,” Lionel Laurent [warns](. And that’s not even considering how many milkshakes might get thrown. Bonus UK Economy Reading: The Conservative record is marred by a [stagnant stock market](, foreign takeovers of British firms and a dearth of listings to replace them. — Chris Hughes A “Sensitive Date” June 4th is known for many things. It’s Angelina Jolie’s [birthday](. It’s the day that King Charles VI granted [a cheese monopoly]( to the people of Roquefort-sur-Soulzon. It’s when Congress [passed]( the 19th Amendment. And it’s the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre. China, though, would prefer you to forget about that last one. Nobody knows for sure how many people died on June 4, 1989, when soldiers backed by tanks fired at unarmed students, civilians and protestors. Some say it’s more than 1,000. Others claim the figure is [as high as 10,000](. Despite the sheer loss of life, “the Communist Party has successfully managed the narrative on Tiananmen in all the territories it controls,” Karishma Vaswani [writes](. “That now extends to Hong Kong, which for the last three decades, had led the annual vigils to honor those who died. The last was in 2019, when more [than]( 180,000 gathered.” Now, June 4 passes unceremoniously, landing in the middle of a five-day food carnival [organized]( by pro-Beijing community groups. Just three years ago, Matthew Brooker [said that]( that Beijing couldn’t possibly turn Tiananmen into a [forgotten]( footnote of history. “They cannot erase the knowledge of 1989 from the minds of a people who have been accustomed to living in relative freedom,” he wrote at the time. But now, “Hong Kong has become the emblem of what the Communist Party can achieve if it puts its mind to it,” Karishma says. In a government statement, authorities chose not to mention the anniversary by name, instead calling it a “sensitive date.” And police are [reportedly]( going so far as to squat outside bookstores in the city in case anyone tries to brush up on their anti-China literature. “A few years ago, what happened in Hong Kong would be unthinkable,” Zhou Fengsou, a former student leader in Tiananmen told Karishma. “But it’s happened. The Communist Party wants to do that to Taiwan next.” Read [the whole thing](. Telltale Charts The WeWork of the medical world is, undoubtedly, Steward Health Care. A decade ago, Fortune said CEO Ralph de la Torre was “[health care’s new maverick](” when he turned six Boston-area facilities into one of the nation’s largest [for-profit hospital chains](. Now, Steward is in the dog house, having filed for [Chapter 11 protection]( last month. The company is wayyyy behind on rent (we’re talking millions) and is being [sued by vendors]( for unpaid supplies. That’s not even mentioning the tens of thousands of patients and workers who got swindled in the process. Bloomberg’s editorial board [argues]( the bankruptcy offers a cautionary tale about private equity. “The industry’s business model — loading up acquired entities with debt, stripping down assets and leasing them back, and making a quick and profitable exit — can be a poor fit with the messy reality of American hospitals,” the editors write. A less messy (depending on how you look at it) business opportunity for private equity investors might be … cement. I know, I know, it’s not as feel-good as a hospital rescue, but Tim Culpan [says]( there may be hidden value in the construction material. Consider Asia Cement China Holdings: Its balance sheet isn’t awful — a $1.3 billion pile of money and $433 million in total liabilities — despite its operating cash flow falling to $225 million last year. And, hey, it still makes money, which is more than a lot of companies [can claim]( these days. “These are all characteristics loved by private equity investors looking for a beaten up company to buy and rehabilitate,” he writes. Instead of making a dad joke about that being “concrete evidence,” I’ll just leave you with this chart: Further Reading President Biden’s [migrant crackdown]( won’t solve the border crisis. — James Gibney Americans need Covid closure. Congress [just blew]( its chance. — F.D. Flam Do you trust Bill Ackman [to build]( a $250 billion fund manager? — Aaron Brown Republicans are [tough on crime]( — except when it comes to Trump. — Erika D. Smith Cash-rich shippers should have seen [the container shortage]( coming. — Chris Bryant Good riddance to El Niño, but [La Niña]( won’t be much better. — Mark Gongloff ICYMI School shootings are changing [classrooms](. A [new map]( for NYC public bathrooms. A tale of [two First Ladies]( at trials. Dr Pepper is now [as popular]( as Pepsi. Kickers You should [never trust]( celebrity DMs. The [Love Is Blind]( creator deserves jail time [for this](. Birkenstock transformed itself into [a luxury behemoth](. The Alec {NAME} family is filming [a reality series]( on TLC. A [very important holiday]( is fast approaching … Notes: Please send [Caesar salad]( and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Threads](, [TikTok](, [Twitter](, [Instagram]( and [Facebook](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. 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