America’s geopolitical group chat is way too crowded

How many friends is too many friends? [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a crotchety, pugilistic and controversial political operator of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - America isn’t short [on friends](. - [Mexico’s election]( ends. - South Africa must [make amends](. - What’s the [wait time](? It depends. Too Many Friends We’re already knee-deep in [wedding season](, which means my Instagram feed is about to be inundated with photos of newlyweds and their bridal parties. While I’m all for celebrating love, I often wonder: How do these people have so many friends? Some couples are out here with fourteen bridesmaids and sixteen groomsmen! Is there a [WhatsApp]( to corral everyone into a conga line of ill-fitting polyester sweat factory dresses and rented tuxedos? Or are we leaving that to the maid of honor, the matron of honor, the two best men and … the dog wearing the bandana? It’s a miracle nobody gets lost.[1](#footnote-1) And the money!!! These people have spent a small fortune to support the wedding industrial complex[2](#footnote-2). At a certain point, enough is enough. The same could be said about America’s geopolitical strategy. Washington’s list of friends is longer than a [CVS receipt](. Kenya is the [latest addition]( now that it’s a major non-NATO ally, or MNNA (not to be confused with M&A, a phonetic equivalent), a label that lets countries do cool military military stuff but stops short of giving them explicit security guarantees. NATO, too, has some new faces, what with Sweden joining this year, and Finland last year. And after that, you get into the [customizable Cava bowls]( of American allyship with Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines. Those partnerships boast names that Andreas Kluth [says]( “sound like characters in Star Wars sequels” such as AUKUS and [I2U2](. “This proliferation of American alliances is not tangential, but central to the foreign policy of President Joe Biden,” he notes. But maybe, just maybe, we’re over-indexed on global friendships. Andreas sees the limits of America’s courtship: “In protecting Estonia or Lithuania, the US potentially confronts Russia; in support of Saudi Arabia or Israel, it could face Iran; standing with the Philippines, it may need to oppose China; by defending South Korea, it might have to fight the North, and so on.” And Karishma Vaswani [points out]( that it’s not easy being on the other side, either. “Smaller countries like the Philippines are in a tough position — trapped between a forceful China and an unpredictable US,” she writes. That dynamic is coming to a head in the South China Sea, where Beijing has disputes with a half-dozen nations over its claims of ownership of the waterway. “The Philippines is bearing the brunt of these encroachments,” she explains. Philippines [President]( Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is trying to increase Manila’s leverage by teaming up with [the US, Philippines, Japan and Australia](. “But there is the elephant in the room,” Karishma says: “Who will be the next US president, and what will American policy look like if there is a change in the White House in November?” If Trump wins, [who knows]( how many friends might turn into foes. Bonus Foreign Relations Reading: - Biden is [reacting](, not leading, on Ukraine and Gaza. — Andreas Kluth - The US must move faster to deploy [new technologies]( on the battlefield. — Bloomberg’s editorial board Pop Base Election Results I’m continuously amazed by the fact that pop culture accounts on X [manage to share]( breaking news before actual news organizations[3](#footnote-3). At 2:02 a.m. this morning, the world learned that Claudia Sheinbaum was elected Mexico’s next president, not through the AP (which sent its tweet at 2:12 a.m.) or the New York Times (which posted at 2:19 a.m.), but through Pop Base, an anonymous source for entertainment, news and award show coverage: The most bizarre part of the 2024 election season? Source: X Whoever runs Pop Base didn’t give us much context here. There’s no link. There’s no way to verify it. Sure, there’s a nice picture of Mexico’s flag, but who is this Claudia Sheinbaum? What does she plan to do at the helm? To answer these questions, might I direct you to an actual human being, our columnist Juan Pablo Spinetto, who [says]( “she will be in charge of defending the legacy of the man who was instrumental to her triumph: president and mentor Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who leaves [emboldened]( by his party’s 30-plus-point-difference [win]( despite clear policy shortcomings during his administration.” In other words, it’s gonna be more of the same, despite this being a historic appointment. “Some of AMLO’s closest allies will likely remain in Sheinbaum’s government,” he notes, but “at the same time, she will need to find her own voice and leadership style.” Elsewhere in leadership changes, South Africa also had an election this past week, and Justice Malala [says]( “a stark choice faces the ANC following its devastating loss of an outright majority.” Cyril Ramaphosa, president of the African National Congress (ANC), needs to make a deal with Helen Zille, federal chairman and ringleader of South Africa’s pro-business, White-led Democratic Alliance, but the two leaders couldn’t be any less alike. Justice says Ramaphosa is “wealthy, charming, smart — and notoriously indecisive,” while Zille is “crotchety, pugilistic, controversial — and a very effective political operator.” Against all odds, they must “corral their clashing parties into a coalition agreement — or else watch as the country descends into a populist and kleptocratic future.” Last but not least, we have India’s general election, the results of which are expected to arrive tonight at 10:30 p.m. Eastern. Nearly every exit poll says Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set for a [landslide victory](, but Andy Mukherjee [believes]( some caution is warranted. “These surveys have proved spectacularly wrong in the past, and they must be read even more cautiously this time around because of the Modi government’s outsize sway on the television stations that commission them,” he writes. I guess we’ll have to wait for Pop Base’s tweet to arrive at 10:28 p.m.! (Kidding! You should definitely follow a more trusted source like Bloomberg News’s [India Election Tracker](, which will be updated in real time as counting gets underway.) Bonus Election Watch Party: [Tune in]( as Ruth Pollard joins Andy Mukherjee and Mihir Sharma to discuss India’s election results live. Telltale Charts In our new, [free-to-read series]( on 14 years of Tory rule, Paul J. Davies [says]( the UK has a productivity problem. And there’s perhaps no greater evidence of that than this chart on NHS wait times. “More than [7.5 million]( people are awaiting treatment, up from an already high 4.4 million before the pandemic. The service is short of doctors, nurses, beds, radiographers, scanners and more. There are hospitals, or parts of hospitals, in such a [state of disrepair]( that they are unsafe,” Therese Raphael [writes](, and the Tories are mainly to blame. If the UK spent as much on health care as, say, Germany, they’d have £73 billion more each year to invest. But they don’t, which is why it takes months to get an appointment with a general practitioner. If spending hours at the hospital sounds like your personal version of hell, you could cut your chances by making sure everyone in your family is vaccinated for human papillomavirus, the common sexually transmitted infection that can cause six kinds of cancer. But isn’t the HPV vaccine for girls, you ask? No! It’s not. In the US alone, Lisa Jarvis [says]( the STD causes over 21,000 cases of cancer in women and 16,000 cases of cancer in men each year. While the discourse around HPV vaccinations has typically centered on their ability to prevent cervical cancer, a [new study]( found that the HPV shot lowered men’s risk of developing any HPV-related cancer by 54%, while their head and neck cancer risk fell by 56%. Better get those shots now, boys: Further Reading The [best business books]( have nothing to do with business. — Tyler Cowen Is someone financing Keith Gill’s [GameStop trade](? — Matt Levine Boeing needs to [dump spaceships]( to focus on airplanes. — Thomas Black Toyota won’t be the last brand to [walk away]( from the Olympics. — Adam Minter The Line app is at the center of [a dispute]( between Japan and South Korea. — Gearoid Reidy After three years of [revenge travel](, we’re returning to normal. — Andrea Felsted The GOP continues to wage war on Pennsylvania’s [mail-in ballots](. — Francis Wilkinson OPEC+’s [new shift]( comes at a difficult time for Saudi Arabia. — Javier Blas ICYMI Jury selection for the [Hunter Biden trial]( is underway. Biden is about to sign an [executive order]( on asylum. The CEO of Zoom wants to invite [AI clones]( to meetings. The NYPD’s [Great Scooter Crackdown]( hurts delivery workers. The [Proud Boys]( are rebuilding their pro-Trump forces. Kickers The man who [couldn’t stop]( going to college. Cleveland’s [10-cent beer night]( turns 50. [Queer food]( can be a source of power. A [Loewe tomato]( that doesn’t cost [$495](. It’s [comedy hour]( over on C-SPAN. Notes: Please send your best Guy impressions and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Threads](, [TikTok](, [Twitter](, [Instagram]( and [Facebook](. [1] On my mom's wedding day the limo driver left without her. The ceremony was slightly delayed due to the absence of a bride. [2] There’s the engagement party, the bridal shower, the bachelor and bachelorette parties, the bridesmaid luncheon, the rehearsal dinner, the welcome drinks. Not to mention the wedding itself, the after party and the complimentary hangover breakfast the next morning. [3] Pop Base also [broke the news]( about Donald Trump's third indictment, beating the New York Times, ABC and even special counsel [Jack Smith]( himself. 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