Too much Trump — and a bit too much inflation

Plus: Are noncompete agreements good or bad? and more [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a slightly inflationary compilation of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - The illusory [truth effect](. - The GOP’s [climate backpedaling](. - No, the [inflation outlook]( isn’t that bad. - The [complicated truth]( about noncompetes. The Earth Is Flat If I told you that the Earth was flat, you’d probably dismiss me as a fool. But if prominent politicians, television pundits and social media influencers started to say it — well, then you just might come around to believing it. That’s the essence of the illusory truth effect, the empirically proven phenomenon whereby information repeated enough suddenly seems credible. That’s also precisely the trick that Donald Trump has deployed to make voters think — wrongly — that President Joe Biden is “weak,” as Andreas Kluth says in his latest [column](. “Trump deploys `weak’ as one of the default adjectives in almost every barrage he fires at his opponent,” Andreas says. “His support network then provides the heavy artillery.” As Andreas explains, there’s no questioning America’s military and economic might, but the real question is how it should be used. Trump has tended to “brandish it in fits of narcissism,” while Biden — for all his foreign policy wins and losses — has sought to use it in the service of America’s interests and values. He was decisive against Vladimir Putin and after Iranian proxies killed American servicemen in Jordan. And, in the Iran-Israel conflict, he defended American ally Israel against Iranian strikes but talked the Israeli leadership into a limited counterstrike, preventing further escalation. As Andreas puts it, that sounds more like mature strength than weakness, so any impression otherwise is probably psychological trickery on the part of the Trump camp. Speaking of the former president, Mary Ellen Klas has a column [arguing](that Trump is preventing his fellow Republicans from taking action on climate change. After years of pushback, many GOP-led states had been coming around to clean energy and the green jobs boom, but the emergence of Trump as the party’s presumptive presidential nominee have prompted many to backpedal. In Florida, for instance, Governor Ron DeSantis — who acknowledged human contributions to the problem in 2016 — is likely to sign a bill striking references to “climate change” from state statutes. The GOP might think it’s “out of sight out of mind” for one of the key problems of our time. But in Florida of all places, they’ll soon discover it’s impossible to hide from reality. Inflation Nightmares Want another example of people hearing something so frequently that they start to believe it? Look no further than the flurry of inflation data Friday, which showed that core inflation rose 0.3% in March from the previous month and, separately, that consumers’ expectations for price hikes over the next year rose to 3.2%, the highest since November. Meanwhile, polls continue to show that the economy is hurting Biden’s chances in November. But has inflation really come roaring back, or is this just a bump in the road? At the start of the year, American households, policymakers and many investors seemed increasingly convinced — for good reason — that the inflation problem was behind us. But in the past three months, we’ve been hit with an onslaught of bad inflation news, which has led many of them to second-guess the optimistic narrative. In a worst-case scenario, that could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. My take on Friday’s data is that the optimistic story [remains valid](. While it was a spicy quarter for inflation reports, most of the heat was frontloaded in January, and the numbers haven’t been nearly as bad in February and March. And under the hood, a lot of the strength has come from lagged or idiosyncratic categories such as housing and financial services, which shouldn’t lead people to believe that we’re entering a period of entrenched, demand-driven inflation. Unfortunately, people have been hit with so many bad numbers (and the nightmarish narratives crafted to help explain them) that they may be starting to believe that the situation is much worse than it actually is. Telltale Charts Noncompete agreements are everywhere — well, until now, that is. The Federal Trade Commission voted 3-2 this week to prohibit enforcement of almost all noncompete contracts and ban companies from imposing new ones.  It’s a sweeping move that “largely fails to distinguish between harmful contracts and the salutary kind,” the Editorial Board [writes](. As the following graphic shows, the agreements are used broadly across different types of firms and businesses to distinct effects. The Editorial Board says the situation calls for a more targeted approach. Turning to energy markets, Javier Blas has a column [pointing out]( that energy companies have tended to make a clear choice between sticking with oil (and big profits) or acknowledging our climate future and moving swiftly into renewables (even if it hurt the bottom line.) But as Javier writes, Paris-listed TotalEnergies SE has had some success with a middle ground, increasing fossil-fuel production but doing so in the interest of financing increased renewable electricity output. Based on the graphic below, that’s been working out great, and it’s a model to follow. “Last year, the French company’s return on average invested capital, a closely watched measure of profitability, climbed to nearly 20%, the highest among the Big Oil group,” Javier writes. Further Reading A sharp rise in the yen could [cause havoc]( from Mexico to Turkey. — Shuli Ren Bird flu has spread to cows. Could it also be [spreading silently]( in humans? — F.D. Flam Private schools [can’t be too surprised]( to see politicians pick up their tricks. — Matthew Brooker China is still [way off from catching up]( with the US on artificial intelligence. — Parmy Olson Netanyahu is at a fork in the road. He should focus on [saving hostages](. — Marc Champion ICYMI China scrutinizes the [food choices]( of US officials. What happens to TikTok without [the algorithm](? King Charles is [easing back]( into his public role. US regulators are [worried about]( Tesla’s autopilot. Kickers A tale of two [pop stars](. Is [London]( getting ruder? [Air taxis]( are airborne ambulances. How an ex-CIA officer [spots a lie](. The [sad state]( of in-flight vegetarian meals. Challengers required a lot of [tennis training](. Notes: Please send noncompete agreements and feedback to Jonathan Levin at jlevin20@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Threads](, [TikTok](, [Twitter](, [Instagram]( and [Facebook](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. [Unsubscribe]( [Bloomberg.com]( [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( [Ad Choices](