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Yulia Navalnaya confronts Putin and a climate of fear Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the

Yulia Navalnaya confronts Putin and a climate of fear [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. Yulia Navalnaya’s decision to [take her late husband Alexey’s place]( in leading opposition to Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks volumes about her courage. It also underlines how powerless the opposition movement has become in Russia in the face of relentless repression. The US and European governments [blame Putin](, who’s remained silent, over Navalny’s death in an Arctic prison on Friday. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the opposition leader was “murdered.” Yet they’ve done nothing to punish the Kremlin so far, other than summon a few diplomats for a dressing down. Russian officials say they’re investigating the death, while strengthening suspicions of a cover-up by denying his family access to Navalny’s body. Demonstrators light candles during a vigil for Navalny outside the Russian Embassy in Riga, Latvia, on Feb. 16. Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg Putin will hardly care about criticism from the West after the breakdown in relations provoked by his war in Ukraine. And the Kremlin has already smashed Navalny’s pro-democracy movement after branding it “extremist.” The opposition brought 100,000 to the streets of Moscow at its peak before 2012 presidential elections — that now resembles an era of liberalism compared with the current climate of fear. Only a few hundred braved a police crackdown in the capital to lay flowers mourning Navalny’s loss. The lack of a tough US and European response to the death of Putin’s most significant opponent risks emboldening the Russian leader as he prepares for six more years as president after next month’s sham election. That may put other political prisoners in danger in Russia and its ally Belarus, where hundreds are detained for opposing President Alexander Lukashenko. It’s unclear if Navalnaya, who’s in Germany, will return to Russia. She urged supporters in a video message not to be afraid. The reality is many Russians are cowed or coopted into silence in a country transformed by war and repression. They see little hope ahead for change. — [Anthony Halpin]( WATCH: Navalnaya says “We know exactly why Putin killed Alexey.” Global Must Reads The US has proposed a temporary cease-fire and warned against an Israeli assault on Rafah in Gaza “under current circumstances” in a draft United Nations Security Council resolution. The move [indicates growing frustration]( with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s insistence on a full-scale invasion of the city despite calls from Washington and its allies to first establish a plan ensuring the safety of civilians. Sweden is on the cusp of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, with Hungary’s ruling party planning to ratify its accession on Monday. That will be the second major [boost to the alliance’s defense capabilities]( following Finland’s admission last April in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. China’s Communist Party will play a bigger role in steering its vital technology industry. The plan outlined at a central government meeting suggests President Xi Jinping’s administration [will accelerate its role]( in funneling resources toward priority sectors such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence in the technological race with the US. For more than 80 years, the primary job of the National Defense Stockpile has been to keep the US military supplied with essential raw materials and protect against supply shocks. So when China sprung a surprise by restricting exports of two industrial metals last year, top-level officials in the Pentagon-controlled agency — and the White House — faced an uncomfortable reality: [its panic button no longer worked](. Australia plans to more than double the size of its naval combat fleet while scaling back the number of troubled BAE Systems Hunter-Class frigates it builds, in a drive to meet the challenges in the Indo-Pacific region. The aim is to [create a larger and more lethal fleet]( that complements conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines. US President Joe Biden ended January with a $130 million war chest for his reelection effort, according to his campaign, in what is [a record amount]( for a Democratic candidate at this point in the calendar. South American trade bloc Mercosur is [considering breaking down a deal]( with the European Union into parts to try and make it more palatable for member states reluctant to implement it, Argentina’s Foreign Minister Diana Mondino said. Major industrial companies want the EU to cut energy costs and the regulatory burden of green rules to [help the region stay competitive]( as the energy transition accelerates. Lionel Messi released a video to try draw a line under controversy about his [failure to play]( in a football match in Hong Kong, saying his absence wasn’t political and he has great affection for China. Washington Dispatch Concern about attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea escalated over the long holiday weekend after the crew of a cargo vessel that had been struck by two missiles was [forced to abandon ship]( for the first time. The Houthis, a militant group backed by Iran that controls much of Yemen, have disrupted a sea route critical to global commerce with missile and drone assaults since last November. US Central Command said a coalition warship and a merchant ship responded to a distress call and rescued the crew. The attacks, which the Houthis say are a response to Israel’s military campaign in the Gaza Strip, have continued despite a wave of airstrikes by the US and the UK. Since the Israel-Hamas war began in October, the Biden administration has deployed numerous diplomatic initiatives to avert a wider conflict. Yet the old and interlocking hostilities of the Middle East have made containment difficult. Late last month, three American soldiers in Jordan were killed in a drone attack that the US blamed on militants linked to Iran. Clashes between Israel and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, also allied with Iran, have intensified. Gaza remains a battleground. And the situation in the Red Sea may be becoming more dire. One thing to watch today: The National Association of Realtors releases its Snapshot of Race and Homebuying in America, which looks into trends within racial groups when it comes to buying homes, and obstacles that arise. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Flying further improved its safety record last year, extending a long-term trend that’s set to to continue. There were 124 fatalities worldwide aboard passenger jets, the fewest in any year other than 2017, according to data compiled by Jacdec, a German consulting firm. One exception was Russia, where US and EU sanctions have [made it hard for airlines]( to acquire parts needed to maintain aircraft. The number of air-safety incidents there more than doubled to 81 in 2023 from 2022. And Finally Putin’s increasingly warm relationship with Kim Jong Un [improved further](, with the Russian president gifting the limousine-loving North Korean leader a new Russian-made vehicle. It was presented to a group that included Kim Yo Jong, Kim’s sister. She offered her thanks and said “the gift serves as a clear demonstration of the special personal relations between the top leaders,” KCNA reported. A car carrying Kim in Russia in September 2023. Photographer: Vitaliy Ankov/Sputnik/AP Photo More from Bloomberg - Check out our [Bloomberg Investigates]( film series about untold stories and unraveled mysteries - [Bloomberg Opinion]( for a roundup of our most vital opinions on business, politics, economics, tech and more - [Next Africa](, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance - Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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