Winning elections is the easy part

Winning elections is one thing, governing is another [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. It’s one thing to win an election, and another to form a government in the increasingly fragmented European political landscape. Anti-immigrant, eurosceptic Dutch lawmaker Geert Wilders learned this [lesson the hard way]( late yesterday when one of his potential coalition partners said he wouldn’t serve in government with the far-right Freedom Party, which won a shock election in November. Since the vote, Wilders’s popularity has risen, and if a new election were held today he’d likely chalk up a stronger first-place finish, picking up nearly a third of the 150 seats in parliament. How this plays out is anybody’s guess. Pieter Omtzigt, the head of the New Social Contract party who ditched the coalition talks, could always return to the negotiation table, or remain outside of the coalition but support the Freedom Party at the top of a minority government. The Labor-Green alliance could also get a shot at forming a government. And if everything else fails, there may be a new election. Right-wing parties have found a natural habitat in opposition — using the mainstream government as a battering ram and a [foil for their populist policies](. But once you start winning elections, it becomes a different story, and Wilders’s struggles are being felt in other nationalist corners of Europe. In Italy, Matteo Salvini of the anti-immigrant League has managed to rise to the jobs of both Deputy Premier and Infrastructure Minister under Giorgia Meloni since the coalition they were part of won in September 2022. But he is greatly overshadowed by her and his party is set for an unimpressive performance in June’s European Parliament elections. Swedish politics has been upended in the last decade by the emergence of the Sweden Democrats, an anti-immigration party that has fragmented an electoral landscape long dominated by two opposing blocs. Following the fracturing of the right-leaning alliance, the current government includes three parties that are dependent on the Sweden Democrats’ backing.  Dutch lawmakers have questioned whether some of Wilders’s proposed policies would be in line with the constitution or European Union law — but regardless of how the current complication is overcome, Dutch politics will never be the same. — [Richard Bravo]( Wilders celebrates his party’s election victory on Nov. 23. Photographer: Carl Court/Getty Images Global Must Reads Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry told the US there will be [no diplomatic ties]( with Israel unless the “aggression” against Gaza is stopped and Israel recognizes a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as the capital. The statement comes as Secretary of State Antony Blinken is on his fifth trip to the region since the Israel-Hamas war erupted. Hamas has delivered a “positive” response to a proposal to halt fighting in the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of some Israeli hostages, Qatar’s prime minister said, offering [hope that a deal]( could be reached soon. US President Joe Biden said that while “there’s been some movement,” he didn’t anticipate immediate progress. A Palestinian woman reacts after an Israeli airstrike in Deir Al-Balah in Gaza on Sunday. Photographer: Ahmad Salem/Bloomberg Switzerland asked China to participate in a peace conference on Russia’s war in Ukraine, [stepping up]( pressure on Beijing to play a role in ending the conflict. Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis said he made the request at talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing today. In Moscow, online commentator Tucker Carlson confirmed he’ll [interview]( Russian President Vladimir Putin about the war. Donald Trump is planning to punish the EU with a potential raft of[trade measures]( should he win reelection in November, sources say. It would most likely kick off with the EU’s inclusion in a broad minimum 10% tariff that would also be applied to China. The EU’s aim to cut 90% of emissions by 2040 is its [most ambitious move yet]( to try to keep global warming below 1.5C. The plan would put the world’s largest trading bloc at the forefront of global climate efforts and require a significant overhaul of its economy and trade. But as John Ainger explains, the European Commission’s proposal is likely to face intense debate among member states. The Economic Community of West African States has called on the political leaders of Senegal to “urgently” [restore the country’s electoral calendar]( after lawmakers amended the constitution to delay a presidential vote by 10 months. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wants to visit China this year, a US delegation told officials in Beijing, in a sign that [ties between the two economic superpowers]( are stabilizing. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is poised to extend his rule well [into a third decade]( in snap elections today in the energy-rich Caspian nation. Washington Dispatch House Republican leaders are trying to regroup today after [two embarrassing defeats]( on a single night. The effort to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas failed after three Republican lawmakers broke ranks with Speaker Mike Johnson. They argued that discontent with Mayorkas didn’t meet the constitutional standards for removal from office. A short time later, Johnson lost a second vote, on Israel war aid. A spokesman said he intends to bring the articles of impeachment “back to the floor when we have the votes for passage.” That opportunity could occur when House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, who has been undergoing treatment for cancer, returns to Capitol Hill. But he isn’t planning to be back today and the House is scheduled to be in recess for the rest of the week. A special election in New York Tuesday might be a factor in Johnson’s calculations. That race will decide which party will win the seat held by George Santos, a Republican who was expelled from the House in December. With that in mind, the speaker could try to hold the next impeachment vote right before the New York vote. One thing to watch today: Biden heads to New York to attend fundraisers while House Democrats hold a retreat in northern Virginia. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva kicked off his second year in office with [more than half of Brazilians approving]( of his work after the economy outperformed expectations, a new poll shows. Lula was aided in the beginning of his third term by a stand-out year for Brazilian agriculture and a steep drop in the annual inflation rate. And Finally When a coast guard vessel pulled alongside the Queen Majeda as it entered Albanian waters, Zuhair Alkuafi, the 55-year-old Libyan captain, offered tea to the officer who came aboard. “He said there was no problem,” Alkuafi said. But there was: Albanian inspectors later found that even the water tanks had been pumped full with [thousands of gallons of gas oil](. K. Oanh Ha explains how the capture of the tanker opened a window on a $5 billion trade in smuggled fuel — much of it coming from Russia. A crew member aboard the ship in the port of Durres, Albania, on July 14, 2023. Photographer: Alessio Paduano/Bloomberg More from Bloomberg - Check out our [Bloomberg Investigates]( film series about untold stories and unraveled mysteries - [Bloomberg Opinion]( for a roundup of our most vital opinions on business, politics, economics, tech and more - [Next Africa](, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance - Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. 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