Risks of a new global war

The world’s frozen conflicts are starting to run hot [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. The great wars of the 20th century had, at least, some clarity in their origins. Franz Ferdinand gets shot in Sarajevo. Germany invades Poland. Today, conflicts are [proliferating across several continents](, localized and yet interconnected at the same time. The latest, the Israel-Hamas war, resumed today in the Gaza Strip after a week-long truce mediated mainly by Qatar with help from the US and Egypt. Some officials and investors suggest the web of overlapping conflicts stretching from West Africa through Ukraine to the Middle East could be the prelude to another global conflagration. That this time it begins not with a bang, but with several. Iran-backed Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack and Israel’s invasion of Gaza have stoked concerns of violence spreading across the Middle East region. Fighting in Ukraine was well into its second year when the war between Israel and Hamas broke out. Islamists have been involved in a string of coups in sub-Saharan Africa, while Azerbaijan recently carried out a lightning capture of Nagorno-Karabakh, which has been contested for decades with Armenia. All of which raises the risk that the world’s frozen conflicts are starting to run hot as the US, Russia, Iran and its Arab neighbors scramble to protect their interests, mirroring the great power rivalries of the last century. Hedge fund veterans such as Paul Tudor Jones have suggested that picture carries echoes of the period before World War I, when the alliances around Germany, France, the UK and Russia dragged Europe into a continental conflict. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis put it more succinctly: “History rhymes.” And that’s without considering China’s intentions toward Taiwan, which could potentially trigger a confrontation with the US. While there are plenty of incentives to pull back from the abyss, as we saw in 1914, what look like confined incidents can have catastrophic consequences. —[ Isobel Finkel]( Smoke billows in Rafah in southern Gaza after an Israeli air raid today. Photographer: said Khatib/Getty Images Global Must Reads The end of the Israel-Hamas truce in Gaza came with [mutual accusations of violations]( of the agreement that saw hostages exchanged for Palestinians held in Israeli jails. The US has told Israeli leaders not [to repeat the scale of destruction]( and displacement inflicted on northern Gaza. And Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s goal of destroying Hamas, designated a terrorist organization by the US and the European Union, looks elusive, with the group’s fighters dug in in tunnels beneath Gaza and [its popularity growing]( in the West bank. The COP28 climate summit got off to a good start, with United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed today pledging $30 billion [to help finance climate solutions](. Yesterday delegates from nearly 200 countries agreed on details for running a new fund [designed to help vulnerable countries]( deal with more extreme weather stoked by global warming.  Solar-powered e-trees in Dubai on Tuesday.   Photographer: Annie Sakkab/Bloomberg Since a meeting with President Joe Biden last month steadied US-China ties, Xi Jinping has unleashed a flurry of measures [designed to restore foreign investors’ shattered]( confidence in China. Implementing what the official Xinhua News Agency referred to as “the San Francisco vision” is of key importance, and a meeting of the Politburo that the Chinese president chaired called for “high-level opening up,” a slogan associated with more market access. The US and three allies imposed sanctions on North Korea for its spy satellite launch, with a primary target being [an arms-trading company]( that has been subject to international punishment for more than a decade. Australia, Japan and South Korea joined Washington in taking the measures against foreign-based agents of North Korea. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party has an edge over the opposition in two key state elections, exit polls show. While the surveys aren’t definitive, and the votes aren’t a proxy for the national ballot in 2024, a win for the BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan would [put Modi in a strong position]( next year. Venezuela said it was allowing barred opposition candidates to appeal their cases, a concession made just ahead of yesterday’s deadline for President Nicolas Maduro to offer guarantees toward free elections or [risk reimposition of sanctions]( by Washington.  Argentina won’t join the China-led BRICS bloc during Javier Milei’s presidency, his incoming top diplomat said, underscoring [the significant foreign policy shift]( his administration plans once in office. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said his “patience is wearing thin” over the inability to push through its flagship [Rwanda deportation plan]( for illegal migrants. Washington Dispatch As the US House today prepares for a vote to expel Representative George Santos of New York, another Republican — former Speaker Kevin McCarthy — says he may not run again. McCarthy, who represents a district in California, has not announced a decision, and has until Dec. 8 to file for reelection. There has been some speculation that he might leave before the end of his current term. He said at a New York Times Dealbook event this week that his tumultuous ouster from the speakership in October led him to consider his future. As for Santos, he held a defiant press conference outside the Capitol yesterday, but seemed resigned to removal from office. The latest effort to expel him unfolded after the House Ethics Committee accused him of misuse of campaign funds and fraud and he faces a 23-count criminal indictment back in New York. The departures of both Santos and McCarthy would cut the already narrow Republican majority, creating one more problem for McCarthy’s successor, Mike Johnson. One thing to watch today: The ISM manufacturing gauge for November is forecast to show another month of contraction. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day A climate crisis is playing out across Ivory Coast and Ghana, with consequences for global food inflation and the cost-of-living squeeze. Incessant rain is lowering output and [delaying harvests of cocoa]( in the world’s biggest producers, with the resulting shortfall catapulting wholesale prices for the chocolate ingredient to their highest in 46 years. And Finally The “Gateway to Europe” stands under Lampedusa’s scorching sun on a cliff not far from the port where tourists disembark. Stefania D’Ignoti writes that the giant doorway was supposed to be a temporary installation. But since the tiny Italian island became [the frontier]( for refugees, local officials made it a fixture as a reminder of the thousands of lives lost at sea attempting to reach Europe. It’s just one of many migration memorabilia that have reshaped Lampedusa’s landscape and identity. Migrants waiting to board the Lampedusa ferry. Photographer: Valeria Ferraro/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images Pop quiz (no cheating!) Which billionaire told advertisers shunning his business to “F—” themselves? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net. More from Bloomberg - Watch the [Bloomberg Investigates]( film series about untold stories and unraveled mysteries - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance - Listen to [The Big Take podcast]( the US focus on China’s military capability. 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