5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

Good morning. The payrolls report is coming, Apple disappointed investors and Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted. Here’s what’s moving markets. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Good morning. The payrolls report is coming, Apple disappointed investors and Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted. Here’s what’s moving markets. Jobs day The US payrolls report will be as closely watched as ever following this week’s dovishly-interpreted [Federal Reserve meeting]( and a slew of softer economic data releases, and amid the ongoing [volatility in Treasuries](. Economists expect 180,000 jobs to be added for October and for unemployment to hold steady at 3.8%. Those additions would be significantly fewer than seen in the blowout September numbers, when 336,000 jobs were added. Apple disappoints Apple warned that its revenue for the quarter to the end of December [will be flat year-on-year](, dashing hopes among investors for growth with the group already under pressure from a slowdown in China. It sees iPhone and Mac revenue growing, but significant declines for its iPads and smartwatches. That has put [more of a focus on its challenges in China](, where the unexpected rise of Huawei Technologies is weighing against the backdrop of an increasingly hostile business environment. SBF convicted Sam Bankman-Fried was [convicted of a massive fraud]( that resulted in the collapse of his FTX crypto exchange, following a month-long trial. The verdict was [delivered swiftly for a white-collar case](. He was found guilty on seven counts of fraud and conspiracy and faces as much as 20 years in prison on each of the most serious charges, with sentencing set for March. It marks a spectacular fall, with FTX valued at $32 billion as recently as early 2022. Manhattan US Attorney Damian Williams said Bankman-Fried had “perpetrated one of the biggest financial frauds in American history.” Holding pattern Markets are in something of a holding pattern ahead of the payrolls data, with Treasuries calm, the dollar mixed and stock futures broadly flat, albeit with a decline for Nasdaq 100 futures after Apple’s results. In premarket trading, Coinbase is falling on weaker trading volumes, Square-owner Block is surging on an upgraded profit outlook and betting firm DraftKings is gaining as its sales and player numbers topped expectations. Coming up… S&P and ISM services data are due, beyond the payrolls numbers. The Federal Reserve’s Neel Kashkari, Tom Barkin, Raphael Bostic and Michael Barr are all due to speak. The earnings calendar for Friday is quieter, topped by numbers from building automation group Johnson Controls and exchange operator Cboe Global Markets. What We’ve Been Reading This is what’s caught our eye over the past 24 hours. - Blinken arrives [in Tel Aviv for talks](. - Jeff Bezos is [moving to Miami](. - The US responds to [China’s grip on African minerals](. - Cathie Wood says Bitcoin is [“digital gold.”]( - Janet Yellen defends the Treasury Department’s [bond portfolio policy](. - The sudden death of a [hedge fund executive](. - Goldman’s managing director level [class shrinks](. And finally, here's what Kristine’s interested in this morning Halloween is over, which means it's time to hurtle toward the next big holiday: Christmas. Santa-themed chocolates have replaced their pumpkin counterparts on store shelves (a phenomenon dubbed `[Christmas creep](' by retailers), and Mariah Carey -- who reigns over airwaves every December with her hit song All I Want for Christmas Is You -- has posted her annual Christmas-themed ["defrosting" video]( on Instagram. Hints of Christmas are popping up everywhere you look. The cheer is palpable even in markets, where the S&P 500 is heading toward its best weekly performance in a year and is set to wipe out two straight weeks of losses in late October, prompted mostly by declines in Big Tech following a challenging earnings season. Bonds have found some relief too, with 10-year Treasury yields swiftly pulling back after cracking above 5% last week. And the VIX index, ominously nicknamed Wall Street's "fear gauge," has retreated from a seven-month high that it hit a couple of weeks ago. It's the kind of turnaround that has some investors wondering whether it's the start of "Santa Claus rally" that typically comes around the end of the year. That rally has been juiced by this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where Chair Jerome Powell's speculation over the impact of high Treasury yields on financial conditions was taken to mean that the central bank is done with rate hikes for the foreseeable future. Of course, there's still today's payrolls data to get through. But is it possible that any disappointment from there is already priced? We got a preview on the softer state of the labor market from Thursday's jobless claims figures, which showed recurring applications climbed for a sixth straight week -- a sign that those who have lost their jobs are having trouble finding employment elsewhere. Yet that was no barrier to the S&P 500 completing its longest rally in three weeks. For today's data, Anna Wong and Stuart Paul at Bloomberg Economics will be keeping an extra close eye on the U-3 unemployment rate, which does not count strikers as unemployed. Their forecast is for an increase of 0.1 percentage point to 3.9%, just below the 4% level that would typically trigger the Sahm Rule that has historically marked the tipping point for a recession. Yet even in that scenario, they still expect the Fed to hold rates through the year-end. So barring any figures indicating a deeper and faster-than-expected labor market slowdown, today's payrolls figures could well be a hurdle that investors can easily clear on their way to piling on this year's Santa rally. [Kristine Aquino]( is managing editor for Bloomberg Markets Today. Follow her on X at [@krisaqnews](. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. 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