Political pawns

The impact of the sudden collapse of Nagorno-Karabakh [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. There’s bewilderment and anger among Armenians who’ve fled Nagorno-Karabakh over the international response to the sudden collapse of their 35-year struggle for independence in the wake of [Azerbaijan’s lightning]( military victory. “People were just playing chess, with us as the pieces,” one woman, Nune Avanisyan, said at an aid center in Armenia where she was seeking help. The dissolution of the Armenians’ self-declared Artsakh Republic has brought the curtain down on a conflict that killed tens of thousands on both sides and created more than 1 million refugees, poisoning relations across the region. The exodus of more than 100,000 Armenians from their historical homeland is taking place against the background of a high-stakes political gamble in which world powers are vying for influence with little apparent heed to the population’s fears for their security. The conflict meant Armenia and Azerbaijan don’t even have an agreed state border. Turkey closed its frontier with Armenia in 1993 in solidarity with Azerbaijan, while Russia leveraged the conflict to maintain its influence in the region after the Soviet Union’s collapse. Now the territorial knot has been cut. The US and the European Union are pressing hard for Armenia and Azerbaijan to reach a comprehensive peace agreement, seeing a chance to marginalize Moscow by stabilizing the region and opening transport routes that bypass Russia. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan are due to meet in Spain on Thursday. Both sides say they want peace even as fears are high that fresh fighting may erupt over Azerbaijan’s demand for a corridor across southern Armenia to its exclave of Naxcivan. Still, a deal that may transform the region after decades of bloodshed is of little comfort for Armenians who’ve fled Nagorno-Karabakh. At Armenia’s Yerablur national military cemetery, Artur Safaryan stood by the grave of a friend, Davit Arzumanyan, who’d died fighting in a 2020 war over the territory. “Today, we are just lost,” he said. “We can’t understand what’s going on.” — [Anthony Halpin]( A service at the Saint Sargis church, part of nationwide prayers for Nagorno-Karabakh, in Yerevan, the Armenian capital, on Sunday. Photographer: Alain Jocard/AFP/Getty Images Global Must Reads An unusual collaboration between several Taiwanese technology companies and US-sanctioned Huawei is building infrastructure for [an under-the-radar network of chip plants]( across southern China. The efforts risk triggering a backlash on an island that is preparing for elections in January and at a time when China threatens Taiwan regularly with military action for even contemplating independence. Romanians, once among the EU’s poorest members, have watched their economy blossom and living standards soar as a result of their clinching membership in the bloc more than a decade and a half ago. That transformation may now provide a [great model for Ukraine]( and other eastern European countries as EU leaders contemplate another round of expansion at meetings in Granada, Spain, this week, Andra Timu and Michael Winfrey report. US Congressman Matt Gaetz officially moved to topple House Speaker Kevin McCarthy yesterday, teeing up a high-stakes vote likely to dramatically [shift the balance of power]( in Washington whatever the outcome. Gaetz, a far-right Florida Republican, cited McCarthy’s embrace on Saturday of a bipartisan deal to avert a government shutdown as provocation for the mutiny. Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi confirmed he’ll seek a third term in December, a decision as widely expected [as his eventual victory](. While the election comes as the North African nation is mired in its worst economic crisis in decades, any challenger faces the daunting task of unseating a leader who’s been in office since 2014 and is backed by the powerful military and state institutions. Indecision in UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government has some top members of his team wondering at this week’s Conservative Party conference [how much longer he should lead them](. His refusal to commit to building a major section of the planned HS2 rail network, little progress on cutting immigration and a non-committal stance on tax cuts have many Tories worried about losing the next general election due by January 2025. A bipartisan group of US senators hopes to meet President Xi Jinping in China next week as [a flurry of diplomacy]( bolsters expectations of a leaders meeting between the two superpowers. Parliament will discuss one of Singapore’s [largest-ever money-laundering cases]( as the government comes under pressure to tighten rules and crack down further on cross-border organized crime. The United Nations Security Council yesterday approved a [Kenyan-led international force for Haiti]( to rein in powerful gangs and clear the way for long-delayed elections. Washington Dispatch Laphonza Butler is set to be sworn in today as California’s newest senator by Vice President Kamala Harris. Butler, who has led the political action committee Emily’s List, was chosen by the state’s governor, Gavin Newsom, to complete the term of the late Dianne Feinstein. She becomes the only Black woman in the Senate and the third in its history — Harris herself was one of the others. At 44, Butler is also considerably younger than her predecessor, who died last week at 90, or most of her new colleagues. A Pew Research Center analysis from January said the median age in the Senate was 65.3. The eldest member, Chuck Grassley of Iowa, who was reelected last year, turned 90 last month. Butler’s ascension coincides with an intensifying debate over the age of top US politicians. Feinstein suffered from numerous health problems, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, 81, has faced questions about his health. President Joe Biden, running for reelection, will be 81 next month, and his chief Republican rival, Donald Trump, is 77. One thing to watch today: The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August will be reported at 10 a.m. ET. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Italy is on track to register the [biggest number of migrant arrivals]( this year since 2016, an issue that will likely keep dominating the agenda of Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing government. Italy’s tiny island of Lampedusa — situated between Tunisia and Sicily — has for years served as a key destination for people trying to cross the Mediterranean in hopes of starting a new life in Europe. And Finally Trump wore a blue suit and blue tie at the defense table as he listened to evidence provided by New York state prosecutors that he [illegally overvalued his properties]( in a bid to get higher on the Forbes billionaires list and save a fortune on loan terms. The former president, who’s dismissed the fraud charges against him as part of a witch hunt, told reporters outside the courtroom that the judge should be “disbarred.” Trump during his trial at the New York State Supreme Court yesterday. Photographer: Brendan McDermid/Reuters/Bloomberg More from Bloomberg - [The Big Take podcast]( on why the microchip in Huawei’s new Mate 60 Pro phone is alarming the US government. - [The Eastern Europe Edition](, delivered every Tuesday, for insights from our reporters into what's shaping economics and investments from the Baltic Sea to the Balkans. - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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