Decisive moment

The risk is that war fatigue is growing among Ukraine’s key allies [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. It’s been a tricky week for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the US, as some of the [strains]( of maintaining allied support for the war effort against Russia emerged into public view. A spat with Poland over grain spiraled into a threat to cease weapons supplies before Warsaw — one of Ukraine’s strongest backers — dialed back the rhetoric. And while US President Joe Biden told Zelenskiy “we’re with you and we’re staying with you,” the mood in the background was less decisive. Mumblings about the slow pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive to retake occupied territory from Russia were matched by complaints among some US and European officials about endemic corruption. Action on graft is seen as essential to maintain support for the massive financial and military aid to Ukraine, along with its prospects for eventually joining the European Union. Zelenskiy sought to address the first point by making clear there’ll be no pause in the counteroffensive in the fall and winter months despite more challenging weather conditions on the battlefield. He’s also stepped up efforts to root out crooked lawmakers and military officers in Europe’s most corrupt state behind Russia. The worry is that 19 months into the war the risk of voter fatigue is growing as key allies, most critically Biden, approach election campaigns. That’s something Russian President Vladimir Putin is counting on, hoping support peels away from Ukraine until he can force Kyiv into concessions. Putin also faces reelection in March, though the Kremlin’s tightly controlled system will have no difficulty in delivering him a landslide. Whatever their domestic political concerns, Ukraine’s allies know that this is still the fundamental choice they face: to continue supporting the victory of a democracy that’s capable of improvement — or to concede to a kleptocratic dictatorship bent on defeating that idea by stealing an entire country. Zelenskiy and Biden at the White House yesterday. Photographer: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters Global Must Reads The White House is considering formal defense treaties with Saudi Arabia and Israel as part of its drive to get two of its closest allies in the Middle East to [formally recognize each other](, sources say. While there is still much to negotiate, a deal would hand Biden a major diplomatic win before next year’s elections, ease regional tensions and help secure vital oil and gas shipping lanes. A pair of ultraconservatives ambushed House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s latest plan to [avert a US government shutdown](, ratcheting up the risk of an Oct. 1 federal funding lapse, with Republicans still fighting among themselves. McCarthy sent lawmakers home until Tuesday, a decision that leaves little time to negotiate with Senate Democrats. Canadian travelers are rushing to change flights after India abruptly suspended visa applications amid an [escalating diplomatic row](. Ties between Canada and India are at their lowest in decades after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused the Indian government of orchestrating the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian activist who was pushing for an independent Sikh homeland. The party of Spain’s center-right opposition leader, Alberto Nunez Feijoo, will hold a [protest this weekend]( against moves by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez for a new term. Feijoo is due to ask lawmakers to support his own plans to govern in a debate starting Sept. 26, but he thinks it will be an uphill struggle to garner enough votes in parliament to succeed. Rupert Murdoch’s decision to step down as chairman of Fox Corp. and News Corp. leaves his son, Lachlan, with [the daunting task]( of steering the cable TV and newspaper companies in two troubled industries. Murdoch’s media empire has long been seen as an influential giant, but since selling most of its film and TV business to Walt Disney in 2019, Fox has become a relative minnow in a sea of whales. South Korea’s ambassador to Japan said “high-level” talks are underway for a [three-nation summit with China]( poised to happen this year, while adding that it wouldn’t affect ties with the US. UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt said [the West must engage in talks with China]( over how best to regulate the growth of artificial intelligence, after Britain invited the country to its global AI summit later this year. Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s attorneys denied reports published in local news outlets that he [met with top military commanders]( to discuss the armed forces overturning the results of last year’s election. Washington Dispatch David McCormick, the former chief executive officer of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, has jumped into next year’s Pennsylvania Senate race, presenting a formidable Republican challenge to Bob Casey, the Democratic incumbent. His candidacy has exhilarated Republican Party leaders, who already see several opportunities to take back the Senate in 2024. With each party holding a narrow majority in both houses of Congress, every election is crucial. Pennsylvania and the Casey family mean a great deal to Biden, who was born in Scranton. Robert Casey, a governor and the senator’s father, was a neighbor there. McCormick, a West Point graduate who served as deputy national security advisor under President George W. Bush, last year lost a Senate primary contest to Mehmet Oz, the celebrity physician who had been endorsed by Donald Trump. Oz was later defeated by John Fetterman, a Democrat. This time, McCormick seems to have relatively little opposition within his party. One person to watch today: Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, a Republican candidate for president, presents her economic agenda. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day As Nigerian President Bola Tinubu rang the closing bell at New York’s Nasdaq exchange this week, he urged investors to “be confident in Nigeria.” His ebullience was in stark contrast to the mood on the streets of Nigeria, where belief in the West African nation’s [currency is ebbing fast](. The naira plunged to a record low on the black market that most Nigerians use to convert currency yesterday. And Finally There’s a growing wave of Chinese youth returning to the mainland from the US and eschewing what used to be coveted overseas jobs and foreign citizenship, Selina Xu reports. While China is facing the world’s biggest exodus of millionaires, rising geopolitical tensions and the perception of increasing hostility toward Chinese nationals are [changing the calculus](, and many elite students and children of the wealthy no longer want to live abroad. The Harvard College China Forum in April. Such events are now fewer and far between. Source: Harvard College China Forum Pop quiz (no cheating!) Which economy replaced Hong Kong as the world’s freest in rankings compiled by the Fraser Institute? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net. More from Bloomberg - Listen to the [Big Take Podcast]( for a discussion of the week’s biggest stories from the US and across the globe - [Bloomberg Opinion]( for a roundup of our most vital opinions on business, politics, economics, tech and more - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. 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