A fragile US-Iran breakthrough

The US and Iran look for a diplomatic breakthrough [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( The tentative deal between the US and Iran to release prisoners and unfreeze assets isn’t even finalized yet, but the two sides are already dropping hints at broader diplomacy. This week Tehran made its first explicit link between the prisoner deal and the nuclear talks, suggesting progress in one area could ease tensions in others. Meanwhile, Washington reportedly asked Iran to stop selling armed drones to Russia. Key Reading: [Iran Says US Prisoner Deal Could Lead to Nuclear Diplomacy]( [Iran Transfers US Citizens From Prison in Step Toward Deal]( [China Is Buying the Most Iranian Oil in a Decade, Kpler Says]( [US and UK Warn Ships of Increased Threat Near Iran’s Waters]( The gestures indicate a willingness to keep talking despite the lack of trust in Iran’s sequencing of the deal – money first, prisoners later – and heightened US and UK fears of attacks on commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf. If they can pull off the agreement without surprises, that could build valuable goodwill that’s been lacking in Tehran since former US President Donald Trump pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal, and lay the ground for further discussion. Iran is also sending positive signals to the European Union — another key stakeholder in the nuclear talks and one that’s secured the release of six of its own citizens from Tehran since May. Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian told the EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell yesterday that a return by all parties to their commitments “is not far from reach,” and said any misunderstandings between his country and the bloc could be resolved through dialog. The incentives are clear. Iran is getting back its cash and boosting oil exports. The US and Europe, besides bringing their people home, have a chance to curb Iran’s atomic work and potentially disrupt a key supplier to Russia’s military.— [Patrick Sykes]( A giant billboard of the ‘Fattah’ hypersonic missile in Tehran on July 7. Photographer: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images Check out the Bloomberg Politics [webpage](, and if you are enjoying this newsletter, sign up [here](. Global Headlines China described Taiwan’s vice president and election frontrunner as a “troublemaker” whose views [risk sparking a conflict](, in a sign that Lai Ching-te will likely have testy relations with Beijing if he becomes the leader of the democratically run island that China regards as part of its territory. It called a recent pledge Lai made in an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek that he would maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait “a complete lie.” - With confidence in China’s financial markets [worsening by the day](, the central bank injected the largest amount of short-term cash since February one day after it slashed interest rates on a slew of monetary tools. Trump is turning his four indictments into a [centerpiece of his campaign]( to return to the White House next year. As Mario Parker writes, he has seized on the charges to strengthen his pitch to Republican Party loyalists, who share his sense of grievance and embrace his unsupported claims that the prosecutions are politically motivated. - President Joe Biden [accused Republicans]( of prioritizing corporate profits over manufacturing jobs during a speech in Milwaukee, a week before GOP candidates vying to replace him plan to gather there for their party’s first presidential debate. Global household wealth fell last year [for the first time]( since the financial crisis in 2008, as inflation and the appreciation of the US dollar wiped some $11.3 trillion off assets. Total net private wealth across the world decreased by $454.4 trillion, according to Credit Suisse’s annual global wealth report. The bulk of the decline was felt in North American and European households. A Russian attack on a Ukrainian port on the Danube River pushed up wheat prices in a further escalation that has drawn international condemnation for endangering the food supply of developing nations dependent on Ukrainian exports. Russia [hit storage sites]( and silos last night, Ukrainian officials said, targeting river channels that have become an increasingly important avenue to circumvent Moscow’s blockade of transporting grain via the Black Sea. Damaged grain stores following the Russian attack in the Odesa region. Source: Ukraine's South Command Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [China Sneezes, But Will the World Catch a Cold?: John Authers]( - [Trump’s Georgia Indictment Has a Smoking Gun: Timothy L O’Brien]( - [Do Oppenheimer’s Nuclear Warnings Apply to AI?: Hal Brands]( South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said the [world would never accept]( North Korea as a nuclear-armed power. Yoon expects the meeting on Friday with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Biden at the US presidential retreat in Camp David will lead to agreement on ways to enhance their capabilities to respond to the nuclear and missile threats from Pyongyang. - North Korean state media said the US soldier who ran across the border is [seeking refuge]( there because of unfair treatment in the Army, making its first statement on the episode. Explainers You Can Use - [RICO, the Racketeering Law Trump Faces in Georgia]( - [Why China Isn’t Providing Enough Jobs for Its Young]( - [A Year Into Biden’s Climate Agenda, the Price Tag Remains Mysterious]( In a “radical shift,” the philanthropy that controls most of the assets in George Soros’s $25 billion family office is [ending most of its operations]( in the EU after the 93-year-old Hungarian-born billionaire handed control of the organization to his son, Alexander. The Open Society Foundations has been one of the most influential NGOs in the EU’s former communist eastern wing and central Asia over the past three decades, investing almost $20 billion into programs to support democracy, human rights and the rule of law. Tune in to Bloomberg TV’s Balance of Power at 5pm to 6pm ET weekdays with Washington correspondents [Annmarie Hordern]( and [Joe Mathieu](. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here](. News to Note - Indian and Chinese army commanders agreed to work swiftly toward [easing a border dispute](, setting the stage for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping to potentially meet at key summits in the coming weeks. - UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is planning a summit later this year that aims, for the first time, [to gather world leaders]( and artificial intelligence executives in an event that’s supported by Biden. - Thailand’s parliament will meet next week to [select a new prime minister]( after a court ruling cleared a legal hurdle that had held up the selection process for nearly a month.  - A former senior official at the Federal Bureau of Investigation pleaded guilty to conspiring to [violate US sanctions]( and launder money while working for Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska. - Indonesia has [pushed back the launch]( of a much-anticipated investment plan underpinning a landmark $20 billion climate financing deal struck with Biden last year. And finally ... Since Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage declared that he’d lost his bank account in June, the concept of debanking has [catapulted into the spotlight]( in the UK. Industry chiefs have insisted they don’t take personal or political beliefs into account when removing access to financial services. But for Muslim communities in Britain, banking can prove especially difficult. From delays with applying and problems passing screening checks, to sudden debanking without an explanation. Bloomberg News has spoken to numerous customers who have struggled with the system. A protest against the closure of Finsbury Park Mosque’s HSBC bank account in August 2014. 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