Pimco emerges as one of the biggest holders of Credit Suisseâs wiped-out debt, the US weighs measures to protect all deposits and trillion-d [View in browser](
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Pimco emerges as one of the biggest holders of Credit Suisseâs wiped-out debt, the US weighs measures to protect all deposits and trillion-dollar investors fear missing out on the next rally. â [Kristine Aquino]( Bond losers [Pimco and Invesco are among the largest holders of Credit Suisseâs riskiest bank debt]( â so-called Additional Tier 1 bonds â that have been wiped out after the bankâs takeover by UBS. Pimco is the largest holder of such debt with around $807 million of the securities, according to a person familiar with the matter who isnât authorized to speak publicly. Because of extraordinary government support, the notes are set for a complete writedown and were [quoted]( at prices of a few cents on the dollar on Monday. Deposit dilemma US officials are studying [ways they might temporarily expand Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. coverage to all deposits]( beyond the current cap of $250,000. Treasury Department staff are reviewing whether federal regulators have enough emergency authority for such a measure, though they don't yet view such a move as necessary, according to people with knowledge of the talks. âWe will use the tools we have to support community banks,â White House spokesman Michael Kikukawa said, without directly addressing whether the measure is being studied. FOMO worries Trillion-dollar investment groups including Franklin Templeton, Invesco and JPMorgan Asset Management [fear missing out on the next big rally](. Theyâre convinced an impending slowdown in the US and elsewhere will prompt central banks to switch back to looser policy, triggering a renewed surge higher in markets. âIf you miss the start of the rally, you miss the bulk of the returns,â said Wylie Tollette, chief investment officer of Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, a unit of the $1.4 trillion fund manager. âItâs very difficult to catch up if you miss the first week or two. Sometimes itâs just days.â Risk on S&P 500 futures climbed 0.4% as of 5:34 a.m. in New York, while Nasdaq 100 contracts advanced 0.2%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed, leading to mixed trading among Group-of-10 currencies. Treasury yields edged higher, mirroring moves in the UK and Europe. Gold fell and oil rose, while Bitcoin retreated for the first time in nearly a week. Coming up⦠At 10 a.m., weâll get existing home sales data. At the same time, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is set to speak at an event. At 11:30 a.m., the US will sell $34 billion of 52-week bills and later at 1 p.m., $12 billion of 20-year bonds. The Federal Reserve begins a two-day meeting. Earnings include Nike, Tencent Music and GameStop. Tune in this Wednesday for the Instant MLIV Pulse survey after the Fed rate decision, starting at 2:45 p.m. New York time. What weâve been reading Hereâs what caught our eye over the weekend: - [Odds of a`Minsky Momentâ](in markets are rising: JPMorganâs Kolanovic
- [European banks rally by most since early 2023]( in Credit Suisse aftermath
- Buying Twitter turned Elon Musk into [a big headache for Joe Biden](
- JPMorgan owned the LME [ânickelâ that was actually bags of stone](
- Everything you need to know about the [spread of a deadly fungus](
- [Vanguard plans to shutter business in China](and exit its Ant JVÂ
- [Women mark 50 years of trading](at the London Stock Exchange And finally, hereâs what Joeâs interested in this morning [Yesterday in the newsletter](, I wrote about how you had to hand it to Bitcoin. For one of the first times in its history, it looked like it was actually doing its job. In other words, here you have this situation where the traditional banking system, in both the US and Europe, shows signs of cracking. And you have this overall risk off vibe to the market. And yet Bitcoin has been going to the moon. It's up around 70% so far this year. And not only has Bitcoin been surging throughout the banking stress, it's been outperforming Ethereum. That seemed to indicate that the "digital gold" narrative, which is distinct to Bitcoin, and not other parts of crypto, was part of the story. But then I read this [great blog post]( from [Bob Elliott of the Unlimited Funds](, talking about what a rough March it's been for hedge funds of all stripes. So many popular trades put on by speculators have run into a buzzsaw over the course of the last few weeks. Remember, at the beginning of the month, everyone was betting on higher inflation. "Higher for longer" from the Fed. Value over growth. Down on big tech, all of it. And now all those trades have been chopped up. Trend-following hedge funds, per Bob, just had their worst 5-day stretch this century. Of course, beyond what's been happening with the banks, the rates world has been absolutely rocked, with this massive repricing of the Fed outlook. Yields on the two year dropped over 100 bps in just two weeks. We've basically gone from people talking about the re-emergence of 50 bp rate moves to the end of the hiking cycle just like that. This has also coincided with some mega swings in the equity market. This is cherry picking a little bit, but check out a chart of the NASDAQ-100 (heavily comprised of big tech) vs. the Russell 2000 (which is more cyclical, and more exposed to regional banks). This ratio has been falling for like 11 months, and then just like that it's surged to its highest level in a year. Massive swings. Which gets us back to Bitcoin. One thing about Bitcoin (and really all crypto) is that we've seen how macro-correlated it's become, as the space has matured. More specifically, these coins behave a lot like tech stocks. When you add the orange coin to the chart above, you can see its rip basically coincides with this mega outperformance of the NASDAQ 100. Of course it's still true that Bitcoin has outperformed other cryptocurrencies, which is kind of unusual in a crypto rally. Typically Ethereum, Solana, and their cousins rise more in a rally, as they exhibit higher crypto beta overall. But if you think about this market as not so much "risk on" (and, let's be honest, does this feel like a risk-on market to you?) and more of a position reversal/steamroller market, then it probably makes sense that the largest, most liquid of the coins is where all the action is taking place. So for now, this rally does not look like a bet on imminent hyperinflation, banking system collapse, loss of trust in fiat currency or any other maxi meme. It looks more like a bunch of popular trades all got clobbered over the last couple of weeks, with extreme counter-trend moves in both directions. Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on Twitter [@TheStalwart](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before itâs here, itâs on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals canât find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things to Start Your Day: Americas Edition newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox.
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