Risk of backlash

Emmanuel Macron promised great change would come with his rise to the French presidency five years ago. A brand of centrist economics lauded [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Emmanuel Macron promised great change would come with his rise to the French presidency five years ago. A brand of centrist economics lauded in other European capitals was to overcome decades of reform inertia born from France’s old demons of strikes, protests and political attrition. But as his government presents a plan to overhaul pensions today, there’s a sense that upheaval and conflict may be an immutable part of French politics, or as the saying goes: plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose — the more things change, the more they stay the same. Key reading: - [Macron Stakes Economic Legacy on Pension Reform Fight]( - [Macron Risks Upheaval With Plan to Make French Work Longer]( - [France’s Stunning Economic Rebound May Seal Macron’s Re-Election]( - [French Economy Set to Dodge Recession With Growth in Early 2023]( Both moderate and militant labor unions are unusually united in an unwavering rejection of Macron’s plan to raise the minimum retirement age from 62. The president says it’s needed to eradicate fiscal deficits and boost employment; they say it’s an unfair attack on the least well-off. Social unrest appears inevitable, fueled too by a drop in living standards as inflation surges and the Yellow Vest protesters that brought disruption in 2018 begin to organize marches once more. To get through parliament without the contentious use of special-decree mechanisms, Macron is aiming to secure the support of the conservative Republicains, who have indicated they could back him under certain conditions. Yet an easier legislative ride won’t change sentiment on the street, with a vast majority of French people agreeing with the unions. According to a Jan. 4 survey by pollster Elabe for BFM TV, 47% want the minimum retirement age to remain unchanged and another 25% say it should be lowered. During Macron’s first trip as president to the Davos World Economic Forum in 2018, he famously claimed “France is Back” at the core of Europe. While that may be true, it’s not necessarily the France he was thinking of. — [William Horobin]( A protester throws a trash bin over a barricade during traditional May 1 demonstrations in Paris. Photographer: Nathan Laine/Bloomberg Click [here]( to follow Bloomberg Politics on Facebook. And if you’re enjoying this newsletter, [sign up here](. Global Headlines Reasserting control | Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva reasserted his authority after protesters loyal to his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro stormed buildings in the capital, with security forces [arresting]( more than 1,500 people camping in front of the military headquarters demanding the overthrow of the government. Lula met with the governors of Brazil’s 27 states — even Bolsonaro allies — and said there would be [no coup](. - Bolsonaro’s presence in the US state of Florida, where he was hospitalized yesterday for stomach pains, has turned into a diplomatic [quandary](, and President Joe Biden is facing pressure to kick him out. First test | US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy passed the first test of his leadership as Republicans backed new [rules]( for the chamber, including one that will make it easier for dissidents to challenge him. The package contains a provision that gives greater power to an ultraconservative GOP faction wanting a confrontation with Democrats that could lead to a market-rattling standoff this year over the nation’s debt ceiling. - The House voted to [repeal]( most of the $80 billion of Internal Revenue Service funding that Democrats approved last year to catch tax cheats, a move that is doomed to die in the Democratic-controlled Senate. - Former US President Donald Trump told congressional Republicans to play “[tough](” on raising the federal debt limit. Russia’s oil exports made a small gain last week, but not by enough to prevent what appears for now to be a [decline]( in the nation’s shipments to a diminished group of buyers. On a four-week average basis, the total seaborne flow to Jan. 6 was down by more than 500,000 barrels a day. That could spell trouble for Russia, which hasn’t managed to diversify its pool of buyers since Europe all but halted purchases early last month over its invasion of Ukraine. Rural infections | Villagers in China’s heartland would normally have begun preparations for the Lunar New Year celebration weeks ago, slaughtering pigs, geese and chickens and adorning their doors with red scrolls proclaiming good wishes for the coming spring. [Read]( how this year there’s only an ominous silence as rural communities struggle with waves of Covid-19. - China suspended issuing some [visas]( for South Korean and Japanese visitors in Beijing’s first retaliation against Covid-related curbs on Chinese travelers. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [First the US, Then Brazil. Where Next?: Eduardo Porter]( - [Beware the Aftershocks of China’s Covid Pivot: Clara F. Marques]( - [Europe’s Plan to Tax Carbon at the Border Needs Work: Editorial]( Landslide zone | India’s top court will hear a petition next week seeking to halt construction of a hydroelectric project after large cracks appeared in hundreds of houses across the Himalayan town of Joshimath. As [this report shows](, the fate of the town, which is built on the debris of an old landslide, highlights the trade-offs policymakers face between development and ecological preservation. A house with cracked walls in Joshimath, Uttarakhand state, on Sunday. Source: AFP/Getty Images Explainers you can use - [What Led Up to the Attack on Brazil’s Government?]( - [Thai Election Jockeying Heats Up as PM Prayuth Joins New Party]( - [Earth’s Ozone Layer Is Recovering in Rare Climate Success Story]( War games | A hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan would founder but exact [high costs]( on the island democracy, Japan and the US Navy, according to the results of a set of war games released yesterday by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. Yet as [Tony Capaccio]( writes, American losses “would damage the US global position for many years.” Tune into Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( on weekdays from 12 to 1pm ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2pm ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here](. News to Note - Macron and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida pledged to strengthen [cooperation]( in the Indo-Pacific region amid shared concerns over China and North Korea. - The daughter of former Iranian president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was [sentenced]( to five years in prison after being arrested for her alleged role in anti-government protests, the semi-official Mehr news agency reported. - Chinese President Xi Jinping warned officials against [colluding]( with the business world, underscoring that his government’s crackdown on the private sector will remain a worry for investors despite efforts to boost the economy. - At least 17 people died in the city of Juliaca in Peru yesterday during [clashes]( with law enforcement, the Ombudsman’s office said, the highest daily death toll amid protests since President Dina Boluarte took office on Dec. 7. - After years of drought, California has faced a [parade of storms](, killing at least 14 people, closing highways up and down the state and sending residents fleeing for their lives. And finally ... US and European policymakers are racing to counteract China’s [early dominance]( in producing electrolyzers, which can extract hydrogen from water without producing any planet-warming emissions — a key step in creating a green fuel capable of decarbonizing such industries as steel, cement or shipping. [David R Baker]( and [Will Mathis]( explain that after losing out to Beijing in solar manufacturing, many Western clean tech veterans eye the emerging competition with a queasy feeling of déjà vu. A worker inspects electrolyzers at an Iberdola green hydrogen plant in Puertollano, Spain. Photographer: Angel Garcia/Bloomberg Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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