Treading a fine line

How long can India keep up its business as usual approach toward Russia? [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is making two very telling trips this week. In China today ostensibly for a meeting of countries bordering Afghanistan, Lavrov took the chance to discuss the war in Ukraine with his local counterpart. But Beijing is being very low key about the visit. That’s as it faces international criticism for its stance of not condemning Russia for the war as well as threats of economic penalties should it help Russia skirt international sanctions. Key reading: - [China Moves to Comply With Sanctions, Easing Some U.S. Concerns]( - [Russian Foreign Minister Lands in China on First Visit Since War]( - [India’s Dependence on Russian Weapons Tethers Modi to Putin]( - [Russia Offers SWIFT Alternative to India for Ruble Payments]( - [China Envoy Says Xi-Putin Friendship Actually Does Have a Limit]( China’s Foreign Ministry, in its daily briefing today, limited itself to a few generic comments on overall ties with Russia. Chinese companies have, to all accounts, been trying to work out how to comply with sanctions even as Beijing hasn’t officially joined the economic squeeze on Moscow. The fear is that China and Russia, with much in common (although Beijing views Moscow as the junior partner), act ever more as a bloc. But while China avoids public criticism of Vladimir Putin for his war and is averse to mechanisms that damage its own economic progress, President Xi Jinping is probably loathe to put himself in the middle of Putin’s political fights with the U.S. and Europe. Tomorrow Lavrov heads to India, a country that has similarly failed to condemn Russia for the invasion and which continues to trade with it, especially in oil and weapons. New Delhi is in fact considering a proposal from Moscow to use a system developed by the Russian central bank for bilateral payments, bypassing SWIFT — the Belgium-based cross-border payment system operator — from which it has largely been cut off. The criticism of India for its stance on Russia has been far more muted. India is a member of the Quad alliance with the U.S., Japan and Australia that seeks to limit China’s military and strategic clout. It is also a democracy, as opposed to authoritarian China. The question is how long the relative leeway for Delhi can go on, though, if India continues its business-as-usual approach to Russia. — [Rosalind Mathieson]( Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi on Dec. 6. Photographer: T. Narayan/Bloomberg Sign up [here]( for the Special Daily Brief: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and share this newsletter with others too. They can sign up [here](. Global Headline Doubtful withdrawal | Russia’s offer to cut back its military operations in northern Ukraine sparked optimism about the potential for a peace deal. But as [Marc Champion]( reports, there’s strong reason for [caution](: Not only was Russia being pushed back, it had already said it planned to re-concentrate its forces to support the assault on Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. - More than 4 million Ukrainians have [fled]( the country since Russia’s invasion began almost five weeks ago, equal to a tenth of its prewar population, according to the United Nations. - Follow the latest with our [rolling coverage]( Spared punishment | Half of Russia’s 20 [richest]( people have not been sanctioned over its war in Ukraine, leaving a group of powerful billionaires free to operate around the world without legal restriction. [Stephanie Baker]( and [Tom Maloney]( report that the list of who’s blocked, and who’s not, reveals a patchwork pattern of cross-border penalties that has spared many Russians with business interests in key global markets. China’s regulatory crackdowns last year [reduced]( the private sector’s share of big businesses for the first time since 2014. Companies were hit last year by regulations on everything from internet platforms to real estate, and the number of listed privately owned businesses in China’s top 100 fell to 49 at the end of 2021, from 53 the previous year. Missing logs | The House committee investigating last year’s insurrection at the U.S. Capitol has uncovered a [gap]( in former President Donald Trump’s White House phone logs during the more than seven hours when lawmakers were trying to get him to call off the mob. The committee is focusing on whether Trump or his aides played a role in efforts to overturn the 2020 election. - The White House won’t [block]( Trump’s daughter, Ivanka, and son-in-law Jared Kushner from testifying to the House committee. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Garland Has More Than Enough to Pursue Trump: Timothy O'Brien]( - [Chechen Wars Foreshadow Putin’s Next Move: Clara F. Marques]( - [Markets Should Lose the ‘Peace in Our Time’ Reflex: John Authers]( Isolated ally | One of Putin’s closest prewar allies in Europe, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, is poised to win a fourth consecutive term in elections on Sunday. But Orban, Europe’s longest-serving leader, is more [isolated]( than ever, and a triumph at the polls may be a Pyrrhic victory on both the political and economic fronts. Explainers you can use - [Why Colombia’s Election Has Voters Looking Left: QuickTake]( - [How Kim Jong Un Keeps Advancing His Nuclear Program]( - [Why Pakistan’s Leader Is Facing the Risk of Ouster]( Security ties | Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are seeking a [defense]( agreement with the U.S. after an escalation in attacks from fighters in Yemen, as the oil exporters attempt to redraw a decades-old relationship at a time of geopolitical upheaval, sources say. But as [Sylvia Westall]( and [Ben Bartenstein]( write, a treaty would require ratification by two-thirds of the U.S. Senate, a challenge in Washington’s highly charged political environment. Smoke and flames rise from a Saudi Aramco oil facility in Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coastal city of Jeddah, on March 25, following a reported Yemeni rebel attack. Photographer: AFP/Getty Images Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( weekdays from 12 to 1 p.m. ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2 p.m. ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here]( or check out prior episodes and guest clips [here](. News to Note - Five Israelis were killed in a shooting in a Tel Aviv suburb by a Palestinian from the West Bank yesterday, the authorities said, the third [assault]( in the country within days. - Two deadly attacks by armed men in three days outside the key northern Nigerian city of Kaduna have brought [pervasive]( insecurity in Africa’s most populous nation closer to its urban centers. - Shanghai’s growing Covid-19 outbreak is causing [desperation]( among residents with chronic medical conditions who depend on the increasingly overwhelmed health care system. - President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is calling for the replacement of Mexico’s electoral regulators and justices by direct vote, [ramping]( up a feud with independent bodies that he sees as limiting his power. - The European Union is planning to [force]( companies to ensure that products from handbags to smartphones are more durable in a bid to curb the environmental damage caused by their limited lifespans. And finally ... North Korea tried to [deceive]( the world about the type of missile it fired last week by claiming it was a “huge,” new intercontinental ballistic missile, according to South Korean defense officials. They say the ICBM was likely a Hwasong-15 that was first tested in 2017. It’s designed to carry a single nuclear warhead and is less advanced than the Hwasong-17, a multiple-warhead missile that Pyongyang triumphantly declared a success with a slickly produced video. Kim Jong Un walks near a missile in North Korea on March 24. KCNA via KNS Like Balance of Power? [Get unlimited access to Bloomberg.com](, where you'll find trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022