Decisive week?

There is little evidence of progress. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( For weeks now, global leaders and senior ministers have traveled to Moscow in a bid to convince Russia to pull back its troops from the Ukraine border. President Vladimir Putin has also spoken with U.S. President Joe Biden three times on the phone since early December. Despite the diplomatic frenzy, there is little evidence of progress. Key reading: - [U.S.-Russia Standoff Over Ukraine Heads Into Tensest Week]( - [Rolling coverage of the crisis between Russia and the West]( - [Where Military Forces Are Assembling Around Russia and Ukraine]( - [European Energy Prices Jump on Mounting Tension Over Ukraine]( - [Airlines Pull Back Further From Ukraine as Tensions Dent Shares]( - [Russia Starts Military Drills in Belarus as NATO Watches]( Putin, who denies he plans to invade Ukraine, is dug in on his demands for security guarantees from the U.S. and NATO. He says the military alliance has pushed too far east for Russian comfort. Biden and his European allies say Putin is piling pressure on Ukraine by massing 130,000 soldiers and military equipment near the border, and by holding large-scale drills in nearby Belarus alongside naval exercises in the Black Sea. The U.S. is citing evidence it says points to the chance of a Russian attack on Ukraine as soon as this week. Moscow accuses the U.S. of whipping up “hysteria.” It’s now the turn of Germany’s relatively new chancellor, Olaf Scholz, to go to Moscow to try and persuade Putin to de-escalate. Putin, who speaks fluent German from his days as a KGB officer in Dresden, had a degree of mutual understanding with Scholz’s predecessor, Angela Merkel, but any rapport was built up over her 16 years in office. And, unlike Scholz, she speaks Russian. So it’s unclear at this stage what can produce a breakthrough. Russia wants things the West says it cannot give. And if the U.S. is correct, time is running out. One thing the U.S. has yet to put on the table, at least publicly, is another proper sit down with Biden. The only Biden-Putin summit was in June 2021. Touted as another potential “Helsinki” moment — evoking the 1975 accords that sought to defuse Cold War tensions between the East and West in Europe — such a meeting could at least keep dialogue going. — [Rosalind Mathieson]( Members of the Ukrainian State Border Guard at the crossing between Ukraine and Belarus yesterday. Photographer: Chris McGrath/Getty Images Europe Click [here]( to follow Bloomberg Politics on Facebook and share this newsletter with others too. They can sign up [here](. Global Headlines Frustration lingers | Canadian police yesterday [cleared]( the demonstration that had been blocking one of North America’s busiest cross-border trade arteries for more than five days. But as [Danielle Bochove]( and [David Welch]( report, divides remain, with many protesters holding uncompromising views including a mistrust of media and those responsible for giving advice about Covid-19. Guard down | As countries around the world dial back pandemic restrictions, epidemiologists are sending out a [warning](: Don’t expect omicron to be the last Covid variant we have to contend with, and don’t let your guard down just yet. Many people are starting to assume they’ve had their run-in with the coronavirus and that the pandemic is tailing off, but that’s not necessarily the case. Vaccines are working, treatments are advancing and — at least for now — the virus seems less lethal. The likelihood of surviving Covid-19 is improving around the world. A Bloomberg [analysis]( shows that, in country after country, the link between infections and deaths is uncoupling. Rightward shift | The main French conservative presidential candidate is [tacking]( to the right ahead of the April election, supporting border walls and raising the specter of a “great replacement” of the population by non-White immigrants. Valerie Pecresse told thousands of her Republicans party supporters in Paris yesterday that France has lost much of its clout under President Emmanuel Macron. Explainers you can use - [$100 Oil Threatens to Compound World Economy’s Inflation Shock]( - [Europe Dumping Covid Curbs Puts Its Travel Rebound Ahead of Asia]( - [Why China Is Sticking With Its Covid Zero Strategy]( Cementing control | Hong Kong’s leaders have spent much of their political capital over the past two years eradicating the opposition rather than vaccinating their most vulnerable residents. As [Kari Soo Lindberg]( reports, city officials are now going even further to [align]( with mainland China as virus cases spike to new highs. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Tories Have a Bigger Problem Than Boris Johnson: Therese Raphael]( - [Biden’s $7 Billion Betrayal of Afghanistan: Ruth Pollard]( - [Hong Kong Can’t Afford a Wuhan-Style Lockdown: Anjani Trivedi]( Afghan crisis | The U.S. refusal to recognize Afghanistan’s Taliban government, coupled with sanctions and frozen assets, could push the country into [chaos]( and threaten neighboring Pakistan’s stability, Prime Minister Imran Khan said yesterday. Foreign governments have no choice but to try and work with the militant group to avert a larger crisis, the Pakistani leader told CNN. Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( weekdays from 12 to 1pm ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2pm ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here]( or check out prior episodes and guest clips [here](. News to Note - Russia’s top diplomat at the Iran nuclear talks in Vienna said world powers had made “significant progress” as their negotiations to [revive]( a landmark 2015 agreement enter their final stage. - Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan holds talks with the de-facto ruler of the United Arab Emirates in Abu Dhabi today as the longtime Middle East rivals aim to [unlock]( billions in trade and investment. - Ferdinand Marcos Jr., son of the late Philippine dictator, will [skip]( another gathering of presidential candidates as his lead widened in a survey conducted by pollster Pulse Asia Research ahead of the May 9 election. - Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison faces [defeat]( in an election due within months, according to a survey by Newspoll, with his conservative government trailing the center-left Labor Party 45% to 55%. - Swiss voters backed a measure to [protect]( children and young adults from tobacco advertising, while rejecting separate ballots to ban animal testing and remove a levy on corporate capital raising. - Frank-Walter Steinmeier was [elected]( yesterday to a second five-year term in the mainly ceremonial post of German president. Thanks to the 25 readers who answered the Friday quiz and congratulations to Steve Artzerounian, who was the first to name Turkey as the country whose main opposition leader said he won’t pay his electricity bills until the government reverses a 125% price hike announced last month. And finally ... Beijing shouldn’t [portray]( U.S.-born skiing phenomenon Eileen Gu as a patriot because while she’s competing for China now, it’s uncertain what nationality she will choose in the future, the outspoken former editor of China’s Global Times newspaper Hu Xijin wrote on social media. Phrases like winning glory for the country should be replaced with winning glory for Team China, he said. Gu Photographer: Marco Bertorello/AFP Like Balance of Power? [Get unlimited access to Bloomberg.com](, where you'll find trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022