Sabotaging the fight

[Bloomberg]( Follow Us //link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/21099146.77502/aHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS9icG9saXRpY3M/582c8673566a94262a8b49bdBfb82a5c6 [Get the newsletter]( India’s political leaders like to boast about the country’s low fatality rate from the coronavirus. Experts aren’t so sure. The official death rate is a tiny fraction of that in the U.S., even though India has the world’s fastest growing epidemic, with cases set to cross the 2-million mark by week’s end. Patients now include [Amit Shah](, the home minister and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s right-hand man, who confirmed Sunday he’d contracted Covid-19. Data in the country of 1.3 billion people was already questionable before the virus struck. The vast majority of deaths take place at home and, as [Muneeza Naqvi]( and [Ragini Saxena]( explain, experts believe only 20%-30% are properly certified. But India is not alone — yesterday Iran’s data was also [exposed as questionable](. Deaths there from the virus may be triple the official tally, the BBC reported. China raised the [Wuhan death toll]( by nearly 1,300, or 40%, in April. New York adjusted its numbers [sharply higher]( around the same time after it expanded the definition of a Covid-19 death. Italy, Spain and the U.K. followed. Many of the newly counted had died at home. Poor-quality data, revisions and deliberate cover-ups have made the pandemic persistently difficult to quantify. And that makes countering it that much harder. — [Ruth Pollard]( A Covid-19 patient in intensive care at Sharda Hospital near New Delhi. Photographer: Xavier Galiana/AFP Tell us how we’re doing or what we’re missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net. Global Headlines [Tit-for-tat]( | China’s government won’t accept an acquisition of TikTok’s U.S. operations by Microsoft and may take action against Washington if a sale is forced, the state-run China Daily said today. U.S. President Donald Trump has [threatened to ban]( the company unless a deal is struck by Sept. 15 to sell TikTok’s American business to a U.S. entity and [repeatedly insisted]( any sale must include a substantial payment to Washington. - By going after TikTok, the U.S. is [expanding a fight]( against Beijing using Chinese-style restrictions on tech companies, a move that could potentially have enormous ramifications for the world’s biggest economies. - [Peter Martin](, [Gordana Filipovic]( and [Alan Crawford]( explain how Serbia’s purchase of Chinese-made attack drones underscores Beijing’s broadening [strategic footprint]( on NATO’s doorstep. [Glimmer of hope]( | U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin head into another round of negotiations on a new virus relief package. Talks yesterday yielded “a little bit” of progress, Mnuchin said. But a wide gap still remains between Republicans and Democrats, including over an extension of expired supplemental unemployment insurance. - Trump [said he may take]( executive action to impose a moratorium on evictions and enact a payroll-tax holiday. [Trump’s finances]( | Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr. suggested his office may be investigating potential bank and insurance fraud by the Trump Organization, as it seeks access to the president’s tax returns and other financial records. Vance asked a federal judge to throw out Trump’s latest effort to block a subpoena for documents from his accounting firm. Trump called the investigation “Democrat stuff.” [Drug problem]( | Once known as pharmacy to the world, Germany now has its work cut out to supply medicines to its own citizens in the coronavirus era after years of cost-cutting sent the production of active ingredients to cheaper locations such as India and China. The challenge Berlin is prioritizing is how to ensure a supply of cheap generic drugs — from painkillers to antibiotics — when few companies in the region make them anymore. [Corruption obstacle]( | While President Cyril Ramaphosa has pledged to clamp down on endemic corruption in South Africa, his efforts have been stymied by a lack of support from his ruling ANC party. Now his tenuous control of ANC is being laid bare after its leaders shot down a proposal to probe allegedly tainted state contracts for equipment to fight Covid-19. That leaves Ramaphosa in a tough position, with his term as party leader running until 2022 and as president until 2024. A funeral at the Olifantsvlei cemetery in Soweto on July 21. Photographer: Michele Spatari / AFP What to Watch - Bolivia [can’t afford to risk]( financial chaos by tampering with its 12-year currency peg, Carlos Mesa, one of the nation’s presidential candidates, said in an interview with Bloomberg. - China could [take aim]( at American journalists in Hong Kong if the U.S. doesn’t renew visas for their Chinese counterparts, Global Times Editor-in-Chief Hu Xijin said. Hu’s tweets are closely watched after he accurately forecast previous moves by China’s government. - Argentina moved closer to ending a months-long standoff with investors, [announcing a deal]( backed by its largest creditor groups to restructure $65 billion of debt. - The U.S. agreed with Poland to send an [1,000 additional U.S. personnel]( to the eastern European country on a rotational basis after Washington announced plans to withdraw about 12,000 troops from Germany. [And finally]( ... Now we’re living on a hotter planet, researchers are asking: How many of us will die from extreme heat in the decades ahead? The answer is determined mostly by where you live and the impact of economic inequality. As [Eric Roston](, [Paul Murray]( and [Rachael Dottle]( show, people in poor regions who benefit less from air conditioning, protective infrastructure, and elder care will die at much higher rates, emphasizing the life-saving power of income growth and investment in climate adaption. A camel herder during a sandstorm near Sudan’s capital Khartoum in 2013. Photographer: Ian Timberlake/AFP/ via Getty Images   Like Balance of Power? | [Get unlimited access to Bloomberg.com](, where you'll find trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters.  You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022