5 things to start your day

[Bloomberg]( Follow Us //link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/20109728.249860/aHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS9idXNpbmVzcw/582c8673566a94262a8b49bdB7ad5430c [Get the newsletter]( Millions more jobless claims, awful PMI numbers and more fiscal stimulus. Jobless The [rapid rise in the number of people out of work]( is expected to show another increase today, with economists forecasting 4.5 million more claims when the data is published at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time this morning. A Gallup poll showed that a quarter of working Americans believe it is very or fairly likely they will [lose their jobs in the next 12 months](. The wave of losses which began with restaurant, hotel and factory workers is now hitting [office and support workers](. All of which means predictions of a [20% unemployment rate]( are becoming more and more realistic. Awful numbers In this crisis, economists are becoming ever-more reliant on [high frequency and survey data](. The one thing almost all of that data has in common is the bleakness. Today’s Purchasing Managers’ Indexes are no different. In Europe, services PMIs plunged with the number for Germany [dropping to 15.9]( and [France to 10.4](, far below the 50 level that marks the divide between expansion and contraction. Composite PMI for the euro area plunged to an [astonishingly low 13.5](. A similar number for the U.K. dropped to a [record low of 12.9](. Data for the U.S. economy is published at 9:45 a.m. Sponsored Content by Masterworks Bull… Bear… Who Cares? Instead of obsessing over stock market swings, secure your wealth in art—one of the oldest and safest asset classes. Art has outperformed the S&P by 180% since 2000 with little to no correlation. Even better, you can skip their 25,000+ waitlist [with this special Bloomberg link](.  Stimulus The House is set to vote in favor of the [$484 billion stimulus package]( today before sending it to President Donald Trump for his signature. Focus is already turning to the next spending measure as the damage to the economy continues, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi saying “we’re ready to go on to the next bill.” In Europe, leaders are meeting today in an attempt to agree on a [$2.2 trillion aid plan](. Yesterday the European Central Bank agreed to accept [below investment-grade debt]( as collateral for its operations in a bid to ensure no repeat of past liquidity crises. Markets mixed The push-pull of bad economic data and the possibility for more stimulus has equity investors mostly sitting on their hands today. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.8% while Japan’s Topix index closed 1.4% higher after yesterday’s tumble. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.2% higher at 5:50 a.m. with oil and gas companies the best performers as the crude market seems to be [settling down at last](. S&P 500 futures [fluctuated](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 0.617% and gold gained. Coming up… While jobless claims and PMI numbers will get the most eyeballs, March new home sales data at 10:00 a.m. will also get attention with transactions forecast to fall by 16%. Kansas City Fed April manufacturing activity is likely to show a drop to a record low at 11:00 a.m. Intel Corp., Eli Lilly & Co. and Blackstone Group Inc. are among the big names reporting today. What we've been reading This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours. - Trump signs order [suspending immigration]( to curb job competition. - States that [asked first got the most]( coronavirus disaster relief. - When [$8 trillion in global fiscal stimulus]( just isn’t enough. - Europe has 25 million battles to save the [backbone of its economy](. - Chinese [retail investors get burnt]( as oil product expires in negative territory. - The world’s top pork producer is [battling two epidemics at once](. - “[Alien comet](” visitor has weird composition. And finally, here’s what Joe's interested in this morning The world is getting a crash course right now in how the oil markets work. One of the important things that's being illuminated to the general public is that there's no single price of oil, but rather a series of discrete streams and stages of production which can have wild swings due to idiosyncrasies of location and time. The crisis is exposing gaps in other commodities as well. Check out what's going on in the world of pork. Due to the virus, [certain meat processing plants]( for companies like Tyson and Smithfield Foods have been forced to halt production. That creates two [opposite effects on the price of meat](. On the one hand, pork products like bacon start to become more scarce, and the price starts to rise. On the flipside, farmers who raise hogs have fewer places to sell them. So one action can send pig prices lower, and bacon prices higher. That's sent pork packer margins (essentially the difference in raw hogs and finished prices) surging. In normal times, all of this is invisible to people, but in times like these it's clear that on some level the price consumers pay for anything is composed of numerous micro-futures markets (so to speak). Likewise a laborious and granular task faces economists trying to forecast inflation from the crosswinds blown by this extraordinary disruption. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close.  Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](.  You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022