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More time on the trade front, not much time to avert a shutdown, and all the time in the world canât resolve Brexit. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today.
Scheduling more couples therapy
Five Things is shocked â shocked! â to see [upbeat China export data]( arrive just as trade talks with the U.S. reach crunch time. Leaders in Beijing, from where the numbers originate, must be counting their lucky stars after this fortuitous turn of events, apparently caused by companies front-running the Lunar New Year break. One way or another investors shouldnât hold their breaths for a trade breakthrough just yet â while Tariff Man said negotiations, which formally resumed today in China, are â[going along very well](â and that China is âshowing us tremendous respect,â heâs reportedly [considering an extension]( to the March deadline for unleashing more of his super powers.
He loves it not
There will come a time when Five Things can talk about something other than trade, the shutdown and Brexit, but it is not this day. Tomorrow at midnight the current funding deal keeping the U.S. government open will expire, and Congress plans to vote today on the [spending bill]( that would avert another partial closure. Assuming all goes well, the legislation will ultimately head to the desk of President Donald Trump, who has hinted heâll sign despite not being happy. Logic suggests that Trump wonât want to be held accountable for another shutdown, with the last one hitting [household finances]( of federal workers and the effects still being felt in [air safety](. And voters do tend to care about stuff like having money for food and not dying in plane crashes.Â
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Breaking up is hard to do
The Brexit circus continues. Parliament holds its latest set of votes on Theresa Mayâs Brexit strategy on Thursday, but itâs lost a bit of its edge because the U.K. prime minister has said lawmakers will get another say in two weeks. All the same, if May loses the non-binding vote â scheduled for after 12 p.m. Eastern time â it would effectively strip her of her mandate to renegotiate theâ¦Â oh goodness. Look, itâs [a complex mess]( and weâre all still pretending this isnât about running down the clock to force acceptance of Mayâs deal or an extension. In other Brexit news, Renault is the latest major business [to warn]( about a hard split, the whole thing is hanging over [the housing market]( and the Bank of England is signalling [looser monetary policy]( in the event of a no-deal. Here at Five Things global HQ (level -2, opposite Waste Handling & Recycling), weâre prepping for the vote with a Game Boy, a copy of Donkey Kong and a large pillow.Â
Markets just not that into anything
Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.1Â percent while Japanâs Topix index closed little changed as traders googled the definition of ennui. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.4 percent higher at 6:06 a.m. Eastern Time as investors digested a slew of corporate results. S&P 500 futures pointed to a small rise at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.695Â percent and gold was flat.
We heart numbers
Thereâs a lot to get through okay, so try to keep up: German growth data [was bad but the nation dodged recession](. Nestle results seemed to [tick the right boxes](, but otherwise in Europe earnings were a bit mixed. Coca-Cola (pre) and Nvidia (post) look like the biggies in America today. Data-wise, itâs PPI time (8:30 a.m.), initial jobless day (same), and retail sales (ditto). Bloombergâs Consumer Comfort reading comes at 9:45 a.m., with business inventory figures 15 minutes after that. Oh, and itâs also deadline day for money managers who oversee $100 million or more of securities to file a [Form 13F]( with the SEC. In other words, we get a glimpse at what the big boys are holding.
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- Valentineâs Day comes [out of the shadows]( in Saudi Arabia.
- RIP, giant mechanical demigod of the skies (AKA [big plane]().
- Gratuitous â[flash boysâ headline]( as speed bumps planned for gold and silver futures.
- Balance of rental power shifts toward [Manhattan landlords](.
- How Chinaâs JPMorgan wannabe became a [$34 billion debt risk](.
- Here are some U.S. [recession indicators](, if youâre still worried about that.
- Guess what Appleâs former anti-insider trading guy [just got charged with](.
And finally, hereâs what Joe's interested in this morning
Goldman Sachs is out with its "S&P 500 Beige Book," which examines the major themes of conference calls this earnings season. The three big ones it identified are: Overhang from trade negotiations, expectations of growth (albeit slower) in the U.S. and growing impact of a tight labor market. The last one is particularly interesting because most of the time when people talk about the impact on corporate America of a tight labor market and growing wages, it's presented as a bad thing or at least some kind of difficulty to overcome. And for some companies, that seems to be true. But Goldman also points out that while many companies struggle with rising wages and a shortage of workers, other companies benefit from workers having more money to spend and more security in their employment. The note specifically cites earnings commentary from companies like AvalonBay Communities, Huntington Bancshares and Discover Financial Services, which all cited the positive effects of an improving labor market as being good news for them. In other words, a tightening labor market isn't good or bad (per se) for corporations, but it does have distributional impacts, as one company's higher costs are another company's higher profits.
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