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Hi all, Shelly here in Hong Kong. There's no shortage of gloomy headlines coming out of China these days. Apple's iPhones have stopped minting money. A U.S. crackdown has zapped the global tentacles of hometown hero Huawei. A trade war and economic slowdown have bedeviled giants and startups alike, leading to job cuts and pay reductions at darlings such as Alibaba, Didi and Bytedance.
But for every loser, there's always a winner. At least that's what a handful of the venture capitalists I met with last week in Beijing are counting on as China's tech bubble deflates.
You know that the fear of missing out has gone too far when investors sink billions into startups that [rent basketballs](, loan out umbrellas and build standalone [fitness kiosks](. Or, when a food review startup [pays $2.7 billion]( to buy a bike-sharing company. Or when a [smartphone maker]( thinks it should be worth $100 billion, only for the public markets to value it at $30 billion.
"We're actually looking forward to more reasonable valuations, more humble entrepreneurs, and more time to conduct due diligence," said Benjamin Harburg, managing partner at Beijing-based MSA Capital. The skeptic in me usually rolls my eyes at such cheery statements, but in this case it makes a lot of sense.
The party may be winding down, but don't forget these folks were out raising lots of money while it was still bumping in 2017 and 2018. Back then, Carlyle, [KKR]( and [Hillhouse]( took turns raising what they each boasted were “the biggest Asia funds to date.” Not to mention the $100 billion behemoth, SoftBank's Vision Fund. Smaller funds, too, were locking in loads of cash and a lot of that money hasn't been deployed yet. In fact, Asia-focused private capital represented about a fifth of the $2 trillion in undeployed funds in 2018, up from 9 percent in 2006, according to [Preqin](.
These Beijing VCs also don't seem too downbeat about the extinction of the US-China deal flow. It is true that bankers and investors are steering clear of cross-border M&A or investments by Chinese companies into the U.S., due to trade tensions. But they're beefing up their Southeast Asia and Middle East teams and redirecting that capital to places like India, Dubai and Pakistan.
As a business school professor once told me, there’s always someone looking to make a killing by picking up the pieces. Right now, VCs are betting that China is the place to start. —[Shelly Banjo](mailto:sbanjo@bloomberg.net)
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And here’s what you need to know in global technology news
The Huawei sting. Meet the inventor enlisted by the FBI after the Chinese company tried to [steal his secrets](.Â
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Doubling down: Google [steps up spending]( in data centers and YouTube, betting that future growth will more than make up for the hit to profit margins. More evidence that the best business model the internet has ever seen is [still humming](.
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Winning in the Trump era.Ă‚ Jeff Bezos's fortune has grown by $66.2 billion during the current presidency, [more than any other person](. In India, though, Amazon's founder is finding [plenty of competition]( from another billionaire, Mukesh Ambani.
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Turbo charge? Tesla buys battery maker Maxwell, [adding expertise](in capacitors that could speed up electric-car charging.Â
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Direct message: Slack plans to forgo a traditional IPO and sell its shares to bidders in a [direct listing](.
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Binny Bansal breaks his silence. The co-founder of India's Flipkart speaks for the [first time](after leaving the e-commerce startup, following an investigation into alleged personal misconduct by new owner Walmart.Ă‚
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