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Shutdown talks go nowhere, automakers announce job cuts, and Mayâs Brexit bind gets tighter.
Mexican standoff
Yesterdayâs meeting between President Donald Trump and Congressional Democrat leaders produced no progress towards resolving the government shutdown as [talks collapsed]( soon after they began. Trump, who [walked out](of the discussion yesterday, is travelling to the Mexican border today to [rally support]( for his stance on the wall. Barring a last-minute change of heart by either side, 800,000 federal workers will miss their paychecks tomorrow. Republicans in Congress may be starting to lose patience with the presidentâs position as they hold their own meetings in an attempt to find a solution to the impasse.Â
Job cuts
Ford Motor Co. announced it will cut [thousands of jobs]( in Europe and may close some plants as the automaker tries to return the business unit to profitability. In the U.K., Jaguar Land Rover, once owned by Ford, will announce [5,000 job cuts]( later today, according to reports. The news comes only a day after China reported the first [fall in car sales]( in the country in at least two decades.Â
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Plan B
Theresa May lost a vote in parliament yesterday which means she will have to [quickly present her plan]( for what to do if she, [as expected](, loses a vote on the Brexit deal agreed with the European Union next week. With control starting to slip from the hands of the British Prime Minister, some now see a [lower chance]( of a so-called âhard Brexitâ on March 29. Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz became the first European Union leader to suggest that an extension to the deadline for the British withdrawal now needs to be considered.Â
Markets slip
Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.1Â percent while Japanâs Topix index closed 0.9 percent lower as initial optimism over trade talks between the U.S. and China was tempered by the lack of solid details from the meetings. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.3 percent lower at 5:45 a.m. Eastern Time as more disappointing [industrial production numbers]( added to the cautious mood. S&P 500 futures pointed to [a drop at the open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.699 percent and gold was largely unchanged.Â
Coming up
With todayâs wholesale inventories and sales data falling victim to the shutdown, initial jobless claims numbers at 8:30 a.m. are the only important economic data point on the calendar today. However, there is a [long list of Federal Reserve speakers due](. In order of appearance: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida.Â
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- Trump poised for [battle with his own party]( on trade-war powers.
- China and U.S. locked in battle for [global digital supremacy](.
- Profit forecasts are [cut like itâs 2009](. Donât worry about it.Â
- Biggest [correlation spike on record]( means more bad news for quants.
- Chinese [deflation fears]( add to global growth concerns.Â
- How to make a [56,823 percent]( return with Hong Kongâs worst ever IPO.Â
- Mysterious [radio signals from deep space]( detected.Â
And finally, hereâs what Joe's interested in this morning
Last Friday, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell appeared alongside Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke, he called the just-released employment figures a "very strong report," but expressed no anxiety about the gradual rise in wages. "Average hourly earnings moved up, and that's quite welcome, and also, for me at this time, does not raise, you know, concerns about too-high inflation," he said. I thought this was an interesting and overlooked line from the event. Ultimately, as long as inflation remains muted, the Fed can remain flexible and patient about the pace of rate moves. And so, I'm particularly interested in seeing tomorrow's CPI report. CPI excluding food and energy is expected to come in at 2.2 percent year over year for December, the same as in November. If it's anywhere in that range (a range it's been for several years now), then that should continue to give the market comfort that the Fed can go easy in 2019.
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