5 things to start your day

[Bloomberg]( Italian risk hits the euro, oil's at a new four-year high and Republicans want Kavanaugh vote this week. Standing firm Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio said the Italian government [will not retreat]( by even a “millimeter” (0.04 inches) from its 2.4 percent budget deficit target. His comments come after euro-area finance ministers gave the proposal a cool reception at a meeting yesterday, with head of the European Commission going further and warning of a [Greek-style crisis]( for the country. Adding to investor worries, Claudio Borghi, head of the lower house budget committee, said that the euro was “[not sufficient](” to solve Italy’s fiscal issues. The [currency fell]( following his comments, with Italian bonds and stocks also suffering losses. Oil rises again Crude hit [another four-year high](, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate for November delivery trading at $75.31 by 5:45 a.m. Eastern Time while Brent crude was at $84.54. Stoking the rally is the question of whether OPEC will be able to replace the Iranian exports being drained [from global supply]( by U.S. sanctions. Russia is doing what it can. Its production rose to another [post-Soviet high]( in September as the country completely rolled back the output cuts it had agreed with OPEC. Differences between the outlook for Brent and WTI have Citigroup Inc. warning that the U.S. benchmark could trade at [a $15 discount]( to its global counterpart. Sponsor Content by PIMCO Asset Allocation Views: Late‑Cycle Investing With market dynamics shifting and the potential for greater change ahead, investors may find it difficult to determine optimal portfolio positioning. [Here are five investment opportunities we see](.  Kavanaugh vote Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said that the Senate [will vote this week]( on Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination, adding that “the time for endless delay and obstruction has come to a close.” The rush to vote comes despite further revelations emerging about the nominee’s [college drinking]( and a continuing FBI investigation. President Donald Trump said he wants a “[very comprehensive](” investigation into sexual assault allegations against Kavanaugh. Markets drop Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.8 percent while Japan’s Topix index closed 0.3 percent higher as the new North American trade deal provided some relief for exporters. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.8 percent lower at 5:45 a.m. as Italian woes continued to dominate the investment scene in the region. S&P 500 futures pointed to a [drop at the open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 3.056 percent and gold was higher. Fed speak This is a [big week for speeches]( from the Federal Reserve. Today Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak about the outlook for employment and inflation in Boston at 12:45 p.m. Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan are also taking to the podium today. Investors will watch these speeches closely. Rotating voting rights among regional Fed presidents mean interest-rate projections for next year could even range between two hikes and four, depending on which [dots belong to which member](. What we've been reading This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours. - U.S. accuses Chinese navy of “[unsafe](” confrontation. - Manhattan [home sales tumble]( in market clogged with listings. - Your guide to the many flavors of [quant investing](. - The $38 million [earthquake alert system]( that can buy the West Coast precious seconds. - As Merkel’s [star begins to fade](, here’s who to watch. - Britain’s free-trade Brexit [challenge](: find 7 Americas. - “[Physics was built by men](”: Cern suspends scientist over remarks. And finally, here’s what Joe's interested in this morning It's never too early to get excited for Jobs Friday. At the end of the week, we get the September Non-Farm Payrolls report, and economists are expecting 184,000 jobs, a drop in the unemployment rate to 3.8 percent, and a slight decline in the average hourly earnings growth rate from 2.9 percent to 2.8 percent. Obviously, there's a wide range of numbers in that general vicinity which would suggest the economic expansion remains on track. In a note to clients yesterday, Southbay Research, a data-driven forecasting shop, says that there could be a big upside surprise to the report. The reasoning is that up until Florence it had been a pretty quiet hurricane season, meaning that we may get fewer seasonal layoffs than we have in past years. Factor in the tight labor market, and other types of companies that would engage in seasonal layoffs may not have been so inclined this year, given the difficulty of finding new workers. Of course, even a substantial upside surprise might not change anybody's mind about anything, but it's still remarkable that we could be getting around 200,000 new jobs created per month, long after people started talking about "full employment." 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