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Forward Guidance
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Stocks are still selling off across the world, Congress passes budget plan, and Theresa May maintains hard line on Brexit.
Stocks fall
Another [late-session plunge]( into the U.S. close yesterday spurring a correction in the S&P 500 Index has triggered selling across the globe. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 1.8 percent, while Japan’s Topix Index closed down 1.9 percent, taking the gauge’s losses for the week to 8 percent. China’s Shenzhen Composite Index plunged 3.2 percent, pushing into [a bear market]( from the Nov. 2016 high. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was somewhat calmer, trading 0.4 percent lower at 5:45 a.m. Eastern Time. S&P 500 futures added 0.6 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.849 percent, and gold was lower.
Budget vote
The Senate passed a vote on a [two-year budget agreement]( in the early hours of this morning, after a long delay prompted by objections from Republican Senator Rand Paul over the spending elements in the deal. The House vote on the legislation, which [ended](just after 5:30 a.m., also passed which means the partial government shutdown that began at midnight will end before most federal workers arrive at their jobs. Perhaps more importantly, the budget effectively ends the risk of another government shutdown for at least a year.
No compromise
British Prime Minister Theresa May continues to hold a firm line on Brexit negotiations, telling her negotiating team to [never compromise]( as she seeks a deal with Europe that would allow Britain many of the benefits of membership without the perceived political cost of losing sovereignty. In Europe, more eyes are focussed on Germany where a [backlash is building]( among members of both sides of the coalition agreement over the terms of the deal, before Social Democrat party members have even had a chance to vote on it.Â
China oil
There will soon be a challenger to global oil benchmarks Brent and West Texas Intermediate as a new [crude-futures contract]( will start trading in China, in local currency, on March 26. The contract, which will be open to foreigners, is the country’s first attempt at domestic crude futures since 1993. Things have not been great in the oil market, with a barrel of WTI for March delivery trading at $60.52, setting the commodity up for its [worst week in a year](. Latest rig count data from Baker Hughes Inc. are due at 1:00 p.m. today.
Takeover fight
Qualcomm Inc.’s board [unanimously rejected]( the $121 billion offer from Broadcom Ltd., which the company has described as its “best and final.” The future of the hostile takeover now will be decided by shareholders who will vote next month on whether to replace Qualcomm’s current board with one chosen by Broadcom. Hock Tan, Chief Executive Officer of Broadcom, warned that [the world has changed]( more than Qualcomm’s board realizes, in an interview with Bloomberg earlier this week. Â
Here's what you should read today
- What just happened? Six views on how the correction [finally came](.
- [Haven assets]( still not reflecting market panic.
- New era of currency volatility leaves [bearish dollar bets intact](.
- Ex-Credit Suisse banker [gets five years]( for looting client accounts.
- China’s inflation [is easing]( a global markets fear price gains.
- Britain’s [Amazon obsession]( pushes retailers to breaking point.
- [Peak child](.Ă‚
@TicToc by Bloomberg: 24/7 news. Streaming LIVE on Twitter.
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And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning
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So Congress [has just passed a two-year budget agreement](, which not only keeps the government open, but boosts federal spending by about $300 billion. Between this bill and the recent tax cuts, deficits are expected to go up by a lot. There's basically two lines of criticism to all this: There's the boring criticism and the smart criticism. The boring criticism is that Republicans are hypocritical, having been ostensibly anti-deficits during the Obama administration. The smart criticism is that it doesn't make sense to deliver a fresh fiscal jolt when the economy is growing at a decent clip and unemployment is down to 4.1 percent. But just because the latter criticism is smart doesn't mean it's correct. While it's true that the unemployment rate is quite low by historical standards, prime-age labor force participation in the U.S. is well below pre-crisis levels, which implies that there's still a persistent and sizeable amount of shadow slack in the job market. Sure, wages have been picking up lately, but 2.9 percent year-over-year growth is not exactly blowing the doors off. Dominant measures of inflation are still pretty low. And it's at least plausible that the [new corporate tax regime]( will spur more fixed investment, which could raise the productive capacity of the nation and allow us to grow more without a spurt of undesirable inflation. So while people say this is a terrible time to do fiscal stimulus, the evidence is not conclusive that they're actually right.
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