5 things to start your day

[Bloomberg Markets]( [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]([Twitter Share]( [SUBSCRIBE [Subscribe]](  Forward Guidance  Catalan crisis intensifies, Congress's very busy calendar, and more disappointing U.K. data. Not backing down Catalan President Carles Puigdemont [refused to drop his claim]( to independence for the region in a letter delivered just ahead of a [deadline imposed by Madrid](. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s government said it would move ahead with suspending the powers of the regional administration following Puigdemont’s enduring commitment to the declaration. Spanish stocks dropped [0.8 percent]( as the crisis intensified. Fiscal plan The tax debate in the Senate kicked off yesterday with Republicans winning some [key votes]( against Democrat proposals to curb tax breaks for the wealthy. Senate Finance Chairman Orrin Hatch is still holding out hopes for a bipartisan deal, as both sides seek to help middle-income earners, even as the finance panel’s top Democrat, Ron Wyden of Oregon, said there remains a “a [Grand Canyon-sized gap](” between the parties’ positions. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has warned that the [U.S. stock rally]( hinges on Congress passing a tax plan. Even if agreement is reached on the issue, lawmakers [face a litany of other battles]( -- over a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border, immigration, health-care subsidies, Planned Parenthood and storm relief -- as they seek to agree spending legislation to keep the government open ahead of a Dec. 8 deadline. Disappointing data Retail sales in the U.K. [dropped 0.8 percent]( in September, leaving growth in the third quarter at its weakest in four years. The pound [dropped 0.5 percent]( after the print. In Brussels, European leaders are meeting today, and while Brexit is on the menu, it isn’t[ the biggest talking point]( as the bloc faces challenges in Spain, in its relations with Turkey, and over the Iran nuclear deal, all while forging a road map for the EU’s future. Markets drop Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.2 percent, while Japan’s Topix index added 0.3 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index saw its largest retreat in almost a year, closing [1.9 percent lower](. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.6 percent lower at 5:45 a.m. Eastern Time as disappointing earnings and the Catalan crisis weighed on sentiment. S&P 500 futures [fell 0.4 percent](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.327 percent, and gold was a little higher. Coming up… Initial jobless claims are expected to decline slightly to 240,000 when the data are released at 8:30 a.m. The Robin Hood investor conference begins today in New York, featuring a who’s who of Wall Street executives on the speaker list. It’s also a big day for Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen as she heads to the White House for an interview for the job she already has. Here's what you should read today - China’s great ball of money may be headed [back to equities](. - Conservatives are [campaigning against]( Yellen’s reappointment as Fed Chair... - … As bond market’s ‘[Taylor put](’ signals traders on edge over Fed pick. - Britain’s $86 billion pension problem is [about to solve itself](. - What analysts are saying about the [sudden plunge]( in Hong Kong stocks. - Oh, and analysts really, really [want to be liked](. - Yes, it [pays to be nice](. Sponsor Content by XpertHR Women in management now earn £12,000 less than men, with the biggest difference at director level. 2017 pay data analysed under new government reporting regulations reveal that the gender pay gap for UK managers is bigger than previously understood. Access a summary of the findings from research conducted by Charted Management Institute and XpertHR. [Download Summary](   And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning Back in early 2016, David Schawel, a fixed-income portfolio manager, asked people on Twitter to guess which large cap [stock would have the highest probability of generating a 10 percent annual return]( over the next five years. It's really interesting reading back through the thread of responses. There are a number of solid picks. Lots of people had gaming company Wynn Resorts, for example, which has done very well. Many guessed big-name energy stocks -- seemingly natural candidates for a rebound at the time -- which have done less well, relatively speaking. There's a smattering of financials in there, some of which have performed decently since. But overall, what seems most striking in retrospect is the lack of FANG names in the answers. The dominant theme in equity markets over the last couple of years has been the amazing returns from the likes of Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet and so on. They've crushed all comers with few breaks, and now surveys of portfolio managers routinely show that overweight positioning in tech stocks is one of the most crowded ideas out there. But as this thread shows, even as early as January 2016, they hadn't totally enveloped investor minds like they have now. Anyway, check out the thread, and incidentally my (lucky) guess at the time was Facebook, but I swear I'm not just linking back to brag.   Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. [Learn more.](   You received this message because you are subscribed to the Bloomberg Markets newsletter.   [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022