A wake-up call for Europe

Donald Trump’s choice of JD Vance as his running mate could give Europe a jolt. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. Olaf Scholz once said that he was moved to tears by JD Vance’s memoir, Hillbilly Elegy. The German chancellor is likely to find Vance’s role as Donald Trump’s vice [presidential pick]( less inspirational. It’s been quite the journey for the 39-year-old Vance. He grew up poor with a drug-addicted mother in rural Ohio, found a way out in the US Marines, graduated from law school at Yale and went on to work [in Silicon Valley](. Along the way he had something of a political conversion, from a diehard Trump opponent to MAGA acolyte. After yesterday’s nomination in Milwaukee, he is now the presumptive Republican candidate’s running mate — and heir apparent. That [offers him a platform]( to indulge and reinforce Trump’s America First, isolationist instincts. WATCH: Rick Davis of Stonecourt Capital and Iona University Political Science Professor Jeanne Sheehan Zaino share their views on Vance. Source: Bloomberg Television While a vice president’s influence is limited, especially so under a second Trump presidency, Vance’s ability to articulate the plight of White working-class Americans places him on the party’s intellectual wing. His memoir impressed Scholz with the imperative to ensure that working people have prospects “and be treated with respect,” the German leader told the Süddeutsche Zeitung last year. It’s Vance’s [foreign policy views]( that are likely to be most worrying for Berlin, London, Brussels and further afield. Vance was a leading opponent of the Ukraine aid bill in Congress, contributing to the delay in supplying military assistance that undermined Kyiv’s ability to defend against Russia’s invasion. He doesn’t propose leaving NATO, but he advocates a US pivot away from Europe to better counter China. East Asia “is going to be the future of American foreign policy for the next 40 years, and Europe has to wake up to that fact,” he told the Munich Security Conference in February. Given how much Europe has invested in helping Ukraine, it could be a rude awakening.— [Alan Crawford]( Vance greets attendees in Milwaukee. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg Global Must Reads President Xi Jinping’s long quest for technology-driven “high-quality growth” in China [is starting to pay off](, despite the slowest quarterly expansion in five quarters. While Japan and the US suffered when their housing markets hit the skids, China’s tech advances and resulting boom in exports of cheap electric cars and solar panels have helped to keep the economy within reach of its targeted pace of growth of around 5%. WATCH: The unexpectedly sharp slowdown is putting pressure on Xi. Stephen Engle reports. Source: Bloomberg Television A caretaker government looks set to take over in France as President Emmanuel Macron awaits negotiations to a find a new premier. Macron may formally accept the resignation of Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who could then stay on at the [helm of a caretaker administration]( with weakened powers until a successor is appointed. Meanwhile, the Socialists are proposing veteran climate negotiator Laurence Tubiana as [their candidate]( to lead the next government. A surprise deal announced by US President Joe Biden three years ago to share submarine and arms technology with the UK and Australia was meant to establish a generation-defining new alliance aimed at hemming in China. But so far, critics say, the Aukus partnership [has made little progress]( and faces questions in all three countries over when it will be able to deliver. Several European countries are considering reopening their embassies in Afghanistan in a move that would mean [diplomatic recognition of the Taliban]( almost three years after the fall of Kabul, sources say. While French, German and UK officials said they had no immediate plans to do so, Italy conducted a recent reconnaissance mission in the country. Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares said in an interview that as soon as there is adequate security, Madrid will send its ambassador back. Kenya braced for more anti-government protests as so-called national dialogue talks proposed by President William Ruto to ease the political crisis appeared to stall. Activists called for rallies across the East African nation today over the [government’s failure to prosecute]( security forces suspected of killing at least 41 people demonstrating against plans to raise taxes over the past month. A quartet of nations including China, Russia, Iran and North Korea pose a lethal threat to the UK, according to the former NATO secretary-general appointed by Prime Minister Keir Starmer [to lead a strategic review]( of Britain’s defense posture. The sister of North Korea’s leader warned Seoul there would be [“a gruesome” price to pay]( over anti-Pyongyang leaflets floated across the border, indicating her country may raise the stakes after sending trash-laden balloons to South Korea. A senior North Korean diplomat based in Cuba defected to South Korea in November, becoming one of the highest-level diplomats in recent years to [leave the reclusive state]( for its rival. The European Commission will downgrade its participation in informal meetings planned by Hungary, holder of the bloc’s rotating presidency, in protest against Prime Minister [Viktor Orban’s diplomatic forays]( to Moscow and Beijing. Washington Dispatch Elon Musk has [pledged]( to pour $45 million a month into a pro-Trump political group, a decision that would flood the Republican nominee’s reelection effort with cash all the way to the November election. Musk’s planned money injection could help build Trump’s fundraising advantage over Biden, who has suffered from a donor revolt in recent weeks, with some Democrats calling for him to step aside for a new nominee. The CEO of Tesla endorsed Trump in a post on his X social media platform after the former president was wounded at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday evening. Palantir’s Joe Lonsdale and crypto billionaires Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss are among the other prominent donors to the group, America PAC, which is working to reach out to voters to convince them to show up at the polls. One thing to watch today: June retail sales data are expected to show a third straight month of weak spending, suggesting consumers are holding back due to high borrowing costs and a cooling labor market. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day UK economists are skeptical about the ability of Starmer’s new Labour government to turbo-charge growth, anticipating the slow expansion that blighted much of the past decade will continue. Economists expect only slightly faster growth of 0.8% in 2024 and 1.3% next year, according to [Bloomberg’s monthly survey](, which lays bare the challenge the administration faces. And Finally In 1988, the late French President Jacques Chirac — then the mayor of Paris — famously bragged that he would swim in the Seine to show how clean it was. He never did. More than 35 years on and with some €1.4 billion ($1.5 billion) earmarked for the river’s clean-up, the current Paris mayor, Anne Hidalgo, has made a similar pledge. To show the Seine is ready for the [2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games]( that start toward the end of this month, she has promised a swim this week. Macron has also committed to [taking a dip](. The River Seine at Pont Alexandre III bridge last month. 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