Battling the French far right

The final round of France’s parliamentary election on Sunday will come down to one question: Can Marine Le Pen be stopped? [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. After three and a half weeks of frantic campaigning and [market turmoil](, the final round of the French parliamentary election on Sunday will come down to one question: Can Marine Le Pen be stopped? Le Pen’s far-right National Rally and her allies won a resounding victory in the first round last weekend and are targeting an absolute majority. President Emmanuel Macron has been [trying to coordinate]( with rival parties to block her. In more than half of France’s 577 constituencies, three people qualified for the runoffs. In those situations, the third-placed candidate can withdraw to boost the chances of another mainstream party defeating the National Rally. WATCH: Former European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet discusses the French parliamentary election on Bloomberg TV. Officials around Europe will be watching the outcome closely. While Le Pen has backed away from her earlier plans to pull France out of the euro, she remains a fundamentally euroskeptic, nationalist figure. Her victory would undoubtedly disrupt the European Union’s faltering efforts to maintain a unified response to Russia’s war on Ukraine and defend its corner amid trade tensions with the US and China. Hampering the effort to thwart her, coordination is [anything but smooth]( between Macron’s Renaissance party and the New Popular Front, which includes Jean-Luc Melenchon’s far-left France Unbowed. Renaissance has said it would only pull third-placed candidates to help those who respect “the values of the republic.” That was seen as a dig at Melenchon’s party, which has proposed a raft of spending that would flout EU budget rules and alarm investors. The deadline for candidates to file papers to enter the second round is 6 p.m. today. That should provide more clarity on whether France’s traditional firewall against the far right can hold. — [Ben Sills]( Macron and his wife Brigitte at a polling station in northern France. Photographer: Yara Nardi/AFP/Getty Images Global Must Reads Worried by deepening China-Russia relations, Narendra Modi is [heading to Moscow next week]( for talks with President Vladimir Putin, the Indian prime minister’s first bilateral visit since he [won a third term](. The meeting, which will help Putin counter Western efforts to cast him as a pariah, comes two months after the Kremlin leader went to China for the inaugural foreign visit of his new term, underlining Moscow’s increasing dependence on Beijing. Russian attack submarines have conducted missions around the Irish Sea twice since the invasion of Ukraine, [sources say](, an unprecedented move that forced the UK military to take steps to protect British and Irish waters. The initial deployment of a Russian Kilo-class submarine close to the Irish Sea happened around 18 months ago, while the second occurred more recently. A Russian Kilo-class submarine. Photographer: Sasha Mordovets/Getty Images Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrived in Kyiv on a visit that may ease tensions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy over Budapest’s ties with Russia and efforts to stall aid. Orban has [acted as a disruptor]( among EU leaders, slowing assistance to Kyiv and seeking to limit sanctions targeting Moscow. Hong Kong leader John Lee urged residents to take advantage of new measures announced by Beijing to facilitate cross-border exchanges as he [vowed to further integrate]( the self-administered city into China’s development plans. The gift of a pair of giant pandas will help attract tourists and a new five-year travel permit to enter the mainland offered to non-Chinese permanent residents will bolster the Asia finance hub’s advantage, Lee said. As the UK prepares to head to the polls on Thursday, stocks are near a record high, bond fluctuations have evaporated, and hedging against pound weakness is at a seven-year low. That [marks a rethink]( by investors who imposed penalties on the nation’s assets following the 2016 decision to leave the EU and Liz Truss’s disastrous premiership of 2022. The backdrop also suggests comfort with the likelihood that the election will hand power to the opposition Labour Party, whose traditional support for higher taxes and trade unions has historically put it at odds with markets. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro said his government will [resume talks with the US]( this month with a goal of reaching new agreements to meet the conditions of a Qatar-brokered accord on electoral guarantees in exchange for sanctions relief. Mohamed Ould Ghazouani secured a second term as president of Mauritania in Saturday’s election, a victory that is [expected to bring policy continuity]( to investors in the EU ally that’s on the cusp of a gas boom. Peruvian political scion Keiko Fujimori appeared in a Lima courtroom yesterday to begin what’s expected to be a massive, years-long trial for allegedly laundering millions of dollars during her [failed presidential bids](. Chancellor Olaf Scholz is upgrading Germany’s relationship with Poland after Prime Minister Donald Tusk — who [hosted Scholz in Warsaw]( today — returned the nation to the European mainstream last year and France’s lurch to the right throws ties off balance. Washington Dispatch As Joe Biden’s allies implore donors and Democratic stalwarts not to break ranks after his disastrous performance in last week’s debate with Donald Trump, the party is considering whether to formally nominate him as early as mid-July. A potential date is July 21, when the Democratic convention’s credentials committee meets virtually, [sources say](. Democrats had already planned to nominate Biden, 81, before their convention, which begins on Aug. 19, in order to ensure he appears on the ballot in Ohio, which has an Aug. 7 deadline for candidates to be certified. The move to virtually nominate Biden before the convention would allow the party to further coalesce around their nominee even as insiders call for him to step aside for a new candidate. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court’s ruling yesterday that Trump has some immunity from criminal charges over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results [dealt a near fatal blow]( to the push by prosecutors to go to trial before the November vote. One thing to watch today: Job-openings data, one of the Fed’s preferred indicators, are expected to show a decline in June, pointing to a cooling of the labor market. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day With attacks in the Red Sea forcing vessels to travel longer distances, a gauge of global sea transport is heading for an increase of 5.1% this year, [its biggest annual jump]( since 2010, according to Clarksons Research. Vessels have had to re-route thousands of miles around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, where Yemen’s Houthi rebels are targeting ships. Those incidents have intensified in recent weeks after the group [successfully sank a vessel]( using a sea drone. And Finally Abu Dhabi’s quest to lure top hedge funds to its financial center is creating a shortage of office space in the oil-rich emirate. After struggling to attract tenants for years, the four sleek towers in Abu Dhabi Global Market on Al Maryah Island [are nearly full](. The government is working on expanding the free zone’s jurisdiction to neighboring Al Reem Island. Office buildings in Abu Dhabi Global Market are nearly full. 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