Biden’s debate disaster

Joe Biden’s performance in the presidential debate was a nightmare for Democrats and for Western allies still scarred by Donald Trump’s first stint in the White House [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. For anyone who might still be in denial about the likelihood of Trump 2.0, the US presidential debate was [hard to watch]( — a nightmare for Democrats and for Western allies still scarred by Donald Trump’s first stint in the White House. Joe Biden delivered [an excruciating performance](, at one point freezing mid-sentence, heightening fears about the 81-year-old president’s mental acuity. It also [reminded the rest of the world]( what they’ll get if Trump wins in November. It’s been four years since the two political foes met on stage, and back then foreign policy wasn’t front and center. But with two major conflicts raging where Washington has skin in the game, Trump’s unpredictable views matter again, with polls indicating he’ll prevail against Biden. In the past he’s threatened to pull out of NATO, expressed admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin and took a swipe at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In the debate, Trump decried the billions of dollars spent on Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion and said bluntly that Kyiv is “not winning that war.” He bragged he’d end the conflict by his inauguration in January. WATCH: Biden stumbled through some exchanges. Jodi Schneider reports for Bloomberg TV. When it came to Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza, Trump simply said: “Let them finish the job.” Biden has tried and failed for months to broker a cease-fire. After this debate, one can’t imagine Netanyahu paying him any more heed. Is it too late to replace Biden on the ticket? That’s [no longer a taboo thought](. It’s been a wild year of elections that has produced surprises at every turn, from South Africa to Mexico and France — and has seen the relentless rise of far-right populism in Europe. The world thought they had left Trump’s America First policies behind once Biden swept into office with his “America’s Back” slogan. How wrong they were. — [Justin Sink]( Biden during Thursday night’s debate. Photographer: Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg Global Must Reads Britain stands on the cusp of what is likely to be a once-in-a-generation political realignment after next Thursday’s general election. Polls show Keir Starmer’s Labour Party heading for a landslide win and Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives facing a wipeout after 14 turbulent years in power. Read our Big Take [here](. The worst bond rout since the sovereign debt crisis. Companies rushing to lock in funding before a potential capital drought. An almost $200 billion hit to stocks. French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to respond to the far-right’s gains with [a snap election]( has unsettled markets across Europe, triggering a sharp repricing that’s [put billions of euros in flux](. Iran’s ruthless response to protests in 2022 following [the death in custody]( of a young woman arrested for allegedly flouting strict Islamic dress codes is just one of the bones of contention going into [today’s presidential election](, when voters will decide a successor to Ebrahim Raisi, the hard-line cleric who died in a helicopter crash last month. Other issues include the grim state of the sanctions-hit economy and the country’s role in ongoing Middle East turmoil, including the war in Gaza. WATCH: Joumanna Bercetche gives a rundown of the leading candidates in Iran’s presidential election and what’s at stake. While Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel say they do not want a full-blown war, concern is higher than ever they’re stumbling into one — or will deliberately start one. Israelis advocating it believe that such a conflict could be kept short, a matter of weeks. Others are [far more pessimistic](. Chinese leader Xi Jinping called for the Global South to have a greater say in international affairs, [stepping up his efforts]( to challenge US influence around the world. Meanwhile, top diplomats and defense chiefs from Japan and the Philippines will hold talks early next month, [seeking to bolster security ties]( as tensions with China escalate. European Union leaders nominated Ursula von der Leyen for a [second term as president]( of the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm. Public anger driving the deadly protests in Kenya this week over President William Ruto’s new taxes is also aimed at the International Monetary Fund, echoing decades of criticism [directed at the global lender](. Argentina’s Congress approved President Javier Milei’s signature pro-business reforms, [sending a message to investors]( that he has the political backing to get the nation’s economy back on track. Bolivian President Luis Arce denied that he staged a dramatic coup against his own administration in an attempt to improve his popularity, rebutting a detained general who said he [led the uprising on executive orders](. Washington Dispatch While the topic of deficits came up only briefly during last night’s Biden-Trump debate, the IMF [raised the alarm]( yesterday, saying the US is weighed down by too much debt. The Washington-based fund published an unusually harsh appraisal of the US, its biggest shareholder, even as it characterized the world’s largest economy as “robust, dynamic and adaptable.” In a summary of its annual evaluation of the economy, IMF staff also downgraded their estimate for growth this year to 2.6%, a tenth of a percentage point lower than its April forecast. The lender has become increasingly disapproving of US economic policies, warning that unsustainable borrowing and competition with China are creating risks for the global economy. But that criticism only goes so far. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said yesterday that “US debt is sustainable, remains sustainable.” One thing to watch today: While monthly core PCE inflation is expected to register its slowest pace all year in May, that will likely offer just a temporary reprieve for the Fed. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Scorching temperatures in Europe are set to intensify next month, with Greece, Spain and Italy experiencing the hottest conditions, according to meteorologists [surveyed by Bloomberg](. Atlantic Ocean temperatures have been breaking records, and will contribute to the heat blanketing parts of southeast Europe, according to Matthew Dross from forecaster Maxar Technologies. Climate change is exacerbating the effects of extreme weather globally, with 2024 on track to be the hottest year on record. And Finally Amenities at London’s most expensive housing developments are [getting increasingly competitive](. Just having an indoor pool, a spacious gym and a 24-hour concierge is no longer enough to attract ultrahigh-net-worth buyers. So developers are offering such luxuries as access to new private members clubs, medical services with Botox available via an app, and town cars to drive children to private schools. The residents’ pool at the Peninsula. Source: The Peninsula Pop quiz (no cheating!) The leader of which country’s military junta made a rare apology to a prominent Buddhist monastery after security forces killed its abbot? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net. 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