Economic insecurity roils politics

Economic uncertainty is driving political change [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. Whatever the circumstances of Bolivia’s failed insurrection, it’s clear that voters are hurting. The Andean nation is one of the most volatile in South America with a record of coups throughout its 200-year history. Yesterday’s attempt [was over within hours]( of troops storming the presidential palace. While speculation swirls around the motivations behind the uprising, analysts agreed that President Luis Arce stands to benefit from being seen to crush it quickly. He could certainly use a boost as his administration grapples with shortages of fuel and hard currency as a financial crisis looms. WATCH: Bolivian troops storm the presidential palace in La Paz. Source: APTN In Kenya, meanwhile, President William Ruto [backed down yesterday]( from plans to raise $2.3 billion in new taxes after the proposed bill triggered protests from people already struggling with rising food prices and high youth unemployment. Both cases are a reminder that for all the talk of populism, culture wars and rising anti-immigrant sentiment, the economy still lies at the root of all political success or failure. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s surprise humbling in last month’s Indian election came as he pushed a Hindu-first agenda even amid glaring inequalities. From yellow vests to pension protests, President Emmanuel Macron arguably wouldn’t be in his [current electoral predicament]( if he’d been more successful in helping France’s embattled voters feel more economically secure. In the UK, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives have never recovered from the damage unleashed by Brexit, with the traditional party of business now seen as less able to steer the economy than opposition Labour leader Keir Starmer. In a year of elections, it’s already clear that the economy still rules voter choices. How that plays out for Joe Biden after his massive investments in US jobs and infrastructure remains to be seen. Tonight’s presidential debate with Donald Trump might offer some clues. — [Alan Crawford]( Protesters during a national strike against government plans to revamp the pension system in Paris in February 2023. Photographer: Nathan Laine/Bloomberg Global Must Reads Former French President Francois Hollande indicated he’d be [ready to build]( a broad new coalition that could govern if elections beginning on Sunday deliver a hung parliament, part of an effort to stop Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and her allies, [who lead in the polls](, from taking power. Hollande’s comments add another permutation in a hectic campaign that has redrawn the lines of French politics, fueling investor concern the country is heading for [prolonged instability](. Starmer held Sunak to a draw in yesterday’s debate, a snap poll showed, in what is likely to be the last set-piece moment for the UK prime minister to try to [prevent a resounding Labour victory]( on July 4. The head-to-head contest came amid a betting scandal that’s dominated the last two weeks of the campaign, after Conservative candidates and officials were accused of using inside knowledge to put wagers on the date of the election before Sunak announced it. WATCH: Sunak and Starmer went head to head in the final televised debate ahead of next week’s election. Rahul Gandhi’s ascent to the post of Indian opposition leader — vacant for the past decade under Modi’s majority rule — officially makes him [the prime minister’s chief rival](. It also marks a new chapter in his political career and that of [the powerful Gandhi dynasty](, which ruled India for much of the nation’s recent history but has lately [struggled to connect]( with voters. China’s financial elite will have to give up their big paychecks as some of industry’s biggest companies impose strict new limits to comply with President Xi Jinping’s [“common prosperity” campaign](. The nation’s largest financial conglomerates have asked senior staff to forgo deferred bonuses and in some cases return pay from previous years to comply with a pre-tax cap of 2.9 million yuan ($400,000), sources say. Activist groups looking to hold some of the world’s worst polluters to account are increasingly taking legal action against companies accused of misrepresenting their progress on tackling global warming. As many as 47 new climate-washing cases were filed in 2023 against [companies and governments around the globe](, according to a report from the London School of Economics. European Union leaders are poised to nominate Ursula von der Leyen for [a second term]( as president of the bloc’s executive arm as part of a top jobs deal for the next five-year mandate. North Korea’s trash balloons can pose a threat to flights, an aviation official cautioned, a day after South Korea’s busiest [airport temporarily halted operations]( when at least one balloon landed on the tarmac. Thailand has finished a complex process of selecting its new 200-member Senate, which will be less powerful than the outgoing upper house with some [former military and police officers]( and academics emerging as winners. Washington Dispatch Biden and Trump have been warning their supporters of economic peril if the other man wins. The former president has predicted a stock-market crash and even a depression if Biden prevails. The Biden campaign, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and [many economists say]( that Trump’s pledge to enact 10% across-the-board tariffs on imports would raise costs for consumers. Trump has promoted the tariffs as a way to offset tax cuts for households. The share of respondents in a Conference Board survey who think November’s election will affect the economy was relatively low compared with June 2016 but slightly higher than in 2020. The question was part of its monthly [survey]( of consumer confidence, which showed a slight drop in June on a more muted outlook for business. One thing to watch today: Biden and Trump meet in Atlanta for their first 2024 presidential debate. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day In an industry dominated by supermajors and petrostates, ex-banker Mike Sabel and lawyer Bob Pender [came out of nowhere]( to build a multibillion-dollar plant to liquify and export US shale gas. Their company, Venture Global LNG, is on pace to become one of the country’s biggest suppliers of the fuel, an ascent that tracks the nation’s flourishing LNG industry. In the span of about eight years, the US has surpassed Australia and Qatar as the largest LNG exporter. And Finally Since he started farming his 3 hectares in western Morocco in 1963, Mohamed Sadiri has never [seen it this parched.]( Last year’s wheat harvest was the smallest ever, and his 25-foot-deep well has dried up, so he’s trying barley, a more resilient crop. As [Souhail Karam]( reports, Sadiri is among more than a million grain farmers suffering the brunt of climate change in Morocco, where the frequency of droughts has quintupled this century. Sadiri’s home in Ezzhiliga in June. Photographer: Souhail Karam/Bloomberg More from Bloomberg - Check out our [Bloomberg Investigates]( film series about untold stories and unraveled mysteries - [Bloomberg Opinion]( for a roundup of our most vital opinions on business, politics, economics, tech and more - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance - Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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