Perilous times for France’s Macron

French President Emmanuel Macron is counting on being able to change voters’ minds in a matter of weeks and emerge from a snap domestic election with his authority restored. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. Events are [moving pretty fast]( in France. Just over a week ago, Emmanuel Macron was wondering how to respond to an embarrassing, but non-fatal, drubbing in the European Parliament elections. Today, the French president is contemplating another setback which looks like costing him control of the domestic legislature. That would snuff out any chances of enacting additional economic reforms and could even cut short his second term, which still has three years to run. Macron wasn’t the only leader given a kicking by his voters in the European Union ballot. Olaf Scholz in Germany suffered a defeat that was almost as bad. Like Scholz, Macron had the option to hunker down, ride out his moment of unpopularity, and bet that events might break in his favor. A worst-case scenario would have seen him govern until 2027 with an awkward but manageable control over parliament, allowing him to push through key measures by cutting deals with different parties. But that’s not Macron’s style. “This is a situation I cannot accept,” he said in a June 9 address to the nation, as he announced he was dissolving parliament and calling a snap election that begins June 30. As well as [unsettling investors]( in the EU’s second-biggest economy, the president’s gamble led Paris [to lose its spot]( as Europe’s biggest equity market to London, less than two years after winning that title from the UK capital. Macron is counting on being able to change voters’ minds in a matter of weeks and emerge from the election with his authority restored. But the most likely outcome is that his parliamentary caucus will be decimated and Marine Le Pen’s far-right party will [emerge as the strongest force](. And the worst case? Macron has insisted he won’t quit, regardless of the result. But if it’s really bad, he may have to reconsider.— [Ben Sills]( Protesters at Place de la Nation during a demonstration against the far right in Paris on Saturday. Photographer: Nathan Laine/Bloomberg Global Must Reads Russia set June 26 for the opening of an espionage trial against [imprisoned Wall Street Journal reporter]( Evan Gershkovich in the Urals city of Yekaterinburg, a step that may hasten negotiations for a possible swap deal with the US. Gershkovich, 32, has been held in detention since March last year on spying allegations that he and the newspaper deny. Evan Gershkovich at Moscow City Court in February. Photographer: Natalia Kolesnikova/AFP/Getty Images Volodymyr Zelenskiy returns to Ukraine with €50 billion ($53.5 billion) in aid, fresh US security guarantees and commitments to help rebuild energy infrastructure. But the Ukrainian president’s bid to broaden international support at a Swiss summit [fell short](. India, Brazil, South Africa and Saudi Arabia opted out of signing the summit document, while China didn’t attend. The failure to win over nations from the Global South shows Russia remains far from isolated. George Clooney, Robert De Niro and Barbara Streisand are among the stars Joe Biden is counting on to help [propel him to victory]( over Donald Trump in November. But there’s little sign that the Hollywood A-list has energized fans to come out in support of the president, and a cadre of younger personalities has yet to publicly back him. A series of weekend opinion polls suggest UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has little chance of turning his Conservative Party’s fortunes around before the July 4 election. A seat-by-seat analysis by Survation for the Sunday Telegraph found the opposition Labour Party to be [on course for a large majority](, with the Conservatives winning just 72 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, compared with 365 at the last election in 2019. The number of operational nuclear weapons is seeing an “extremely concerning” increase, and China, while far behind the US and Russia, is expanding its arsenal faster than any other country, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Nuclear weapons [are now in a more prominent role]( than in the years following the Cold War, with Russian President Vladimir Putin regularly flexing his military’s mass-destruction capabilities with threats and drills. Putin is poised to make his first trip to North Korea in 24 years to solidify his bond with its leader, Kim Jong Un, that has helped [boost his military’s firepower]( in its war on Ukraine. Australia and China have agreed to improve communications between their respective armed forces in a bid [to avoid future standoffs](, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said after hosting Premier Li Qiang in Canberra. Former South African President Jacob Zuma’s political party will end its boycott of parliament and take up the seats it won in last month’s election, while [challenging the outcome]( of the vote. Venezuelan activists and policy analysts are calling for tougher sanctions and investigations into how President Nicolás Maduro’s government [is using cryptocurrencies]( to get around international restrictions. Washington Dispatch Trump’s proposal to [exempt tips from taxation]( has quickly caught on with Republican allies and he has mentioned it several times since first bringing it up at a rally in Las Vegas last weekend. “We need to spread the word so that every time you leave a tip for the next five months, you put on the receipt, ‘vote for Trump because there’s no tax on tips,’” the former president said at an event in Florida on Friday night marking his 78th birthday. The tax exemption push marks his latest effort to court younger voters in swing states. Nevada has the highest proportion of food service and accommodation workers in the country, industries where employees rely on gratuities. But the promise’s cost presents a significant obstacle. The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates it would add between $150 billion to $250 billion to the federal budget deficit over 10 years. One thing to watch today: Biden hosts NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day The German business chamber in China said [the EU should invest]( to become more competitive instead of hiking tariffs on electric vehicles made in the Asian nation, adding to efforts to avert or soften the levies. The German government is working to prevent [tariffs as high as 48%]( from coming into force next month. Beijing has [threatened retaliation]( across agriculture, aviation and cars with large engines, potentially hurting manufacturers including Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and BMW. And Finally Around the world, a post-Covid reality is beginning to sink in: Everyone, everywhere, [really is sick a lot more often](. At least 13 communicable diseases, from the common cold to measles and tuberculosis, are surging past their pre-pandemic levels in many regions, according to analysis by Bloomberg and London-based disease forecasting firm Airfinity. The research shows that 44 countries and territories have reported at least one resurgence at least 10 times worse than the pre-pandemic baseline. Thanks to the 46 people who answered Friday’s quiz and congratulations to Stephen Markscheid, who was the first to name France as the country that may have a 28-year-old fond of selfies as its next prime minister if his party wins a legislative majority next month. 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