5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Americas

Good morning. US futures head lower, India’s election roils markets and the reason behinds yesterday’s NYSE glitch. Here’s what traders are [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Good morning. US futures head lower, India’s election roils markets and the reason behinds yesterday’s NYSE glitch. Here’s what traders are talking about. — [David Goodman]( Want to receive this newsletter in Spanish? [Sign up to get the Five Things: Spanish Edition newsletter](. Futures slump US stock futures[slid on Tuesday]( as investors await more data that could elevate concerns about the health of the economy. After figures Monday showed that factory output came close to stagnating in May, attention is now turning to a report due later today that is forecast to indicate a monthly drop in job openings. All that comes before Friday’s ever-crucial payrolls number. Oil falls Oil also [extended losses]( from its lowest settlement in almost four months after OPEC+’s plan to return barrels to the market earlier than expected raised concerns about oversupply. Brent fell below $78 a barrel after the August contract tumbled 3.4% on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate was under $74. The move also hurt the shares of supermajors, with BP and TotalEnergies dropping more than 2% India slump Elsewhere, the focus was very much on India, where [markets plunged]( as initial tallies signaled that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling party was [struggling to win a majority](of seats in national elections -- a stunning result after exit polls showed he was on pace for a landslide victory. The NSE Nifty 50 Index tumbled as much as 8.5% in Mumbai, the biggest intra-day drop in more than four years, while the rupee and sovereign bonds also fell. With the UK election also looming, is there a scenario that is likely to roil London financial markets? Share your views in the latest MLIV Pulse [survey](. ECB bets The European Central Bank is expected to become the next major institution to kick off a rate-cut cycle when policymakers meet this week, but analysts and investors are [already wavering over what comes next](. While most economists still foresee quarterly reductions following the initial move, some reckon sticky inflation, rapid wage growth and surprisingly robust euro-zone output will constrain monetary loosening. Traders, too, have pared easing bets. NYSE disruption Finally, a glitch during a software update early Monday led the New York Stock Exchange[to erroneously halt trading](on about 40 stocks and display odd trades showing a 99% drop in companies including Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway. The disruption — the third episode to hit US markets in the past week — was resolved after roughly 45 minutes. NYSE said it will cancel the bad trades in Berkshire Hathaway and is reviewing the erroneous halts to determine whether to cancel any of those. What we’ve been reading This is what’s caught our eye over the past 24 hours. - Bill Ackman joins Bloomberg’s list of world’s[500 wealthiest people.]( - Intel CEO [fires back at Nvidia]( in battle for AI chip leadership. - Farage shakes up UK campaign with [Tories facing poll disaster](. - Hedge fund Dymon [expands Hong Kong office](, bucking trend. - [Chanos leads short seller retreat]( after relentless market rally. And finally, here's what Joe’s interested in this morning Yesterday's [ISM manufacturing]( report was interesting for both micro and macro reasons. I'll start with the micro reason. We still have a big electrical components problem in this country. This gear, which basically is crucial for every construction or capex project you can imagine, has now been in short supply for 44 months, nearly four years. The macro reason is simply that the headline number (along with new orders, prices and backlog) showed softening in May. As I wrote a little bit yesterday, there are signs that the heat from first-quarter economic and inflation data is coming off a little bit. The question is whether that's real, and how the Fed responds to it. In a note to clients, Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research wrote about the rising risk of a Fed accident: "Now, given the likely outcomes, there is a potential accident brewing. The Fed is highly uncertain. As the nearby figure shows, the Fed’s recent rhetoric has largely been reflexive. Their hawkish rhetoric comes after the core inflation has already turned. They are following the dataflow as it comes in. I think this is a problem because I have some conviction that core inflation is slowing. Hawkish rhetoric will look offsides relative to the coming data." Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate [shows just 1.8% real growth for the second quarter](. Finally, adding to the overall softening vibes, oil has been getting hit reasonably hard ever since the OPEC+ meeting this past weekend. Here's WTI over the last few days. This is a good [Javier Blas piece]( on why the recent meeting wasn't particularly bullish. Perhaps there's a gap between how conditions are evolving and the fairly hawkish stance of Fed speakers. Joe Weisenthal is the co-host of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast. Follow him on X [@TheStalwart]( Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. [Bloomberg Markets Wrap: The latest on what's moving global markets. Tap to read.]( Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. 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